While the Heat have blazed to a hot start, Goran Dragic has seen his stats burn down. What’s causing this slump, and can it be fixed?
After a run of four straight Finals and two rings, LeBron James decided to return home to Cleveland, and Miami found itself at a crossroads. Rather than tear down and rebuild, however, Pat Riley made win-now moves throughout last season, bringing in a former All-Star wing in Luol Deng to replace James and, midseason, traded a bounty of assets to acquire Goran Dragic to run the point. Although the Heat fell into our purview here in missing the playoffs last season, this year they looked to step back into postseason play. With an offseason for Dragic to fully integrate himself, Chris Bosh returning from a health scare, and promising rookie Justise Winslow joining the bench, the Miami Heat had their sights set high this season. The optimism seemed to have been warranted, as the Heat are currently 4th in the East and only 1.5 games back of LeBron and Cleveland at the top. They’re one of only four teams across the entire league with a top-10 rating in offense and defense. The Heat seem to be a contender in the East.
The interesting wrinkle in this, however, is that while the Heat have flourished, the former All-Pro Slovenian guard running the point has not. Goran Dragic is having, by nearly all accounts, his worst season in at least five years. His numbers are down across the board from last season, even though his minutes have stayed nearly the same. Is there an explanation to Dragic’s poor start? And can he recover?
How Things Stand
Goran Dragic’s start to the season is uninspiring by any measure, but certainly when compared to his numbers from recent seasons. The below table shows the last three, and you can judge for yourself whether this year marks a drastic drop-off:
[table id=88 /]The Slovenian guard’s numbers are down – way down from two years ago. Last year, a combination of regression and a change in role/teams surely depressed his numbers, but what’s going on this year? Dragic has seen a dip in his counting stats AND his rate stats, and his percentages are by far the worst since his rookie season, when he was a fringe rotation player averaging 13 minutes a game. What happened to the Dragon?
Finding an Explanation
Most “effects” in sports have more than one cause; rarely does one specific trigger result in one specific change. For example, DeMarcus Cousins is now launching over four triples a game, up from one triple every ten games last year. Part of that is Cousins dedicating himself to working on his distance shot, yes, and that is certainly paying off. But many of his threes are shot in semi-transition, a result of a fast-paced scheme instituted by George Karl. Boogie is also now playing with a gifted passer in Rajon Rondo who would prefer to move inside the three-point line, thus making more sense for Cousins to drift outside. A number of causes resulted in this one, mind-boggling effect.
The same is probably the case with Dragic. One clear-cut explanation is probably his age; for a guard who makes a living based on his speed, Dragic is 29 and toeing the downswing of his career. Some players who rely more on strength or shooting often age more gracefully, but for speedsters, the drop-off can be more drastic. Another reason can be spacing; in Phoenix, Dragic was often surrounded by three or four shooters, giving him space to probe and options to which he could fire passes. In a Miami starting lineup where Chris Bosh is the only above-average long-range shooter, that could limit Dragic’s usefulness.
Probably the most damaging factor is Dragic’s role on this team. Currently, the Heat’s starting point guard ranks 7th in usage rate, a statistic that tracks what percentage of a team’s possessions a player uses while he is on the court. Dragic’s 18.8% ranks behind guys like Gerald Green and Udonis Haslem; seriously, Haslem uses more of the Heat’s possessions while on the court than Dragic. The Dragon has to share the court with Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and rising center Hassan Whiteside, all of which demand a lot of the ball. Thus, Dragic often finds himself without the ball in his hands, spotting up on the outside as Wade probes the defense or Whiteside backs down a player in the post. His best skills, driving and kicking, are limited while being surrounded by those players.
Is There Hope?
Factors like age aren’t something that can be helped; if Dragic is losing some of his athleticism, no amount of wishing will bring it back. Coming from Phoenix and the best training staff in the league to Miami (not necessarily bad, but not excellent) could be hurting him as well. That is unlikely to change.
However, there are reasons for optimism. Dragic was 3rd-team All-NBA just two years ago, so there’s plenty of potential there. He also plays for Erik Spoelstra, who has proven to be a mastermind at finding stars roles that will allow them to fit together with other stars. Dragic’s shooting numbers are out of step with the past five years, which seems to suggest there will be at least some regression to his career averages. And during the preseason, the Heat looked unstoppable when they ran pick-and-rolls with Dragic and Bosh; while Wade has dominated the ball in recent games, as the season goes along and he gets more rest, Dragic and Bosh should get to flex their muscles and see if anyone can stop their two-man game. Dragic should get more comfortable and play better as the season goes on. Finally, the Heat second unit looks to be running opponents off the court, a style that seems to fit Dragic much better; if Spoelstra staggers his minutes with the rest of the starters to allow him to run alongside Gerald Green, Justice Winslow, and Amare Stoudemire, we could see Dragic open up.
But that’s not to say sunshine and roses are just around the corner. This is still Wade’s team, and that means Dragic must fill, to a certain extent, the Mario Chalmers’ role from the Heat Finals teams; catch and shoot is the name of the game. There may even be possessions where Dragic doesn’t even touch the ball as Wade brings it up and initiates the offense. In addition, Dragic’s slow start has coincided with the hot start of second-year guard Tyler Johnson; backing up both guard spots after Chalmers’ departure, Johnson has shot the lights out of the basketball and ranks second on the team only to Bosh in advanced metrics such as box plus/minus and wins over replacement level. Miami is a smart organization that looks at advanced metrics, and the more Johnson shines and Dragic wilts, the more the minute balance may even out, no matter what they gave up for him.
Ultimately, eleven games is too small a sample size to make any bold declarations about Goran Dragic. Will he improve on his starting numbers? Yes, most likely, if just as regression to the mean. But will The Dragon return to terrorize teams in the open court? That remains to be seen.
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