The Daunting Task of 2015

The Steelers 2015 schedule is brutal. Based on 2014 records, the Steelers have the most difficult schedule in 2015 with a combined record of 147-107-2 (.579). The second hardest schedule belongs to the Bengals (.563). As a quick refresher, the NFL schedule is based on a relatively simple matrix:

1. Home and away games against the 3 teams in your division
2. 2 home games and 2 away games against 1 division from the opposite conference (divisions rotate on a 4-year cycle, home and away against each opponent rotate each time the division is played)
3. 2 home games and 2 away games against 1 division from your conference (divisions rotate on a 3-year cycle, home and away against each opponent rotate each time the division is played)
4. 1 home game and 1 away game against teams from the other 2 divisions in your conference that finished in the same position as your team (i.e. 1st place). Home and away are rotated by division based on a 3-year cycle.

As it happens, the 4-year cycle on NFC opponents has landed the Steelers with the NFC West and the 3-year cycle of AFC opponents has landed the Steelers with the AFC West. On top of that, since the Steelers won the AFC North, they have to play the first place teams from the AFC East (New England) and South (Indianapolis). The last time we played the NFC West was 2011 when we played Seattle and St Louis at home (quarterbacked by Tavaris Jackson and Kellen Clemens) and traveled to San Francisco and Arizona. Per the scheduling cycle, these games are rotated in 2015 which means a road date in front of the 12th Man in Seattle and a trip to Los Angeles St Louis. The 49ers and Cardinals will come to Pittsburgh. The Steelers last faced the AFC West as a division in 2012 and given the rotation of home and away, we will face Denver and Oakland at home and travel to Kansas City and San Diego. In 2012 we played our AFC East opponent (New York) at home and our AFC South opponent (Tennessee) on the road which means we will travel to our AFC East opponent (New England) and face our AFC South opponent (Indianapolis) at home.

Steelers 2015 Opponents

[table id=4 /]

The 2015 schedule is a daunting task for the Steelers and is the second time since the NFL’s scheduling matrix was established in 2002 that they have had to face both West divisions (2003 was the other instance). However, even though their 2015 slate is the hardest schedule in the league, it is not the most difficult schedule the Steelers have had to maneuver during the Mike Tomlin era. That distinction falls to 2008.

Comparing 2008 to 2015

Now, the immediate reaction might be “But the 2008 Steelers went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl!” This is true, but let us not forget the state of the NFL and the Steelers entering the 2008 season (for it was not that much different than the state of the NFL and the Steelers entering the 2015 season).

• The New England Patriots recorded the first undefeated season in NFL history and were caught cheating.
• The Steelers had won the AFC North but had fallen at home in the playoffs in a game where the offense committed 4 turnovers
• The 2008 Steelers had to face both teams that played in the Super Bowl (New England and New York)
• The Steelers had used their 2007 first round pick on an athletic linebacker that played both inside and outside in college who spent most of his rookie year injured.

The 2008 Steelers schedule featured only 2 teams that had finished below .500 in 2007 (Baltimore at 5-11 and Cincinnati at 7-9). The Steelers had 9 games against teams that had won at least 10 games the year before (NE 16, IND 13, DAL 13, JAX 11, SD 11, NYG 10, CLE 10, TEN 10). Of that group, only Cleveland missed the playoffs. On the whole, the Steelers 2008 strength of schedule was a whopping .598 (153-103). This was not only the highest in the league heading into 2008 but the hardest schedule of any team from 2006-2015. In 2008 the Steelers were slated to play two full divisions (the AFC South and NFC East) where no team finished below .500.

In comparison, the Steelers 2015 schedule also features games against both Super Bowl participants (including a road affair in New England) and has just 3 games against teams that finished below .500 (Cleveland at 7-9, St Louis at 6-10, and Oakland at 3-13). Like 2008, the Steelers 2015 schedule has 9 games against teams that finished with 10+ wins (SEA 13, NE 12, DEN 12, IND 11, ARI 11, CIN 10, BAL 10). All seven of those teams made the playoffs. To add a layer of complication to the 2015 schedule that the 2008 slate did not have, the Steelers must make 4 trips outside the Eastern Time Zone, where they have a significantly worse record than in Eastern Time.

[table id=5 /]

The 4 trips outside the Eastern Time Zone that the Steelers will make in 2015 will tie 2011 and 2012 for the most instances in the Mike Tomlin era. The trips outside the time zone might make 2015 a more daunting task than 2008, but it is hard to ignore the similarities. One thing is certain (in 2015 the same as it was in 2008), if the Steelers can navigate this difficult schedule, they will be battle-tested and well-prepared for whatever greets them in the playoffs.