Anthony Davis, now done for the year with various ailments, will have to rely on the media to determine the value of his contract extension. And that’s only the tip of the iceberg.
On July 1st of last year, New Orleans’ budding superstar forward inked what was reported to be the largest contract in NBA history. The “five-year, 145 million” was a win-win for both parties; Anthony Davis would earn more money than any basketball player over one contract, and New Orleans would ensure the star would be a Pelican through 2021. Few would have thought that eight months later, both sides would be wondering if they really got what they signed for.
On March 20th of this year, New Orleans coach Alvin Gentry announced that Davis would be shut down for the remainder of the season due to knee and shoulder injuries. Two days later, Davis explained the situation: it was discovered that he had tendinosis in his left knee that would require surgery. While addressing that, they also decided to repair a torn labrum in Davis’ left shoulder – an injury he had played through for three years. With Davis getting his entire left side operated on, New Orleans has to look at a player who has missed an average of fifteen games a season since coming into the league and wonder if they truly have a superstar available to them.
However, Davis has uncertainty hanging over his side of the contract as well. Contrary to the number reported, Davis wasn’t guaranteed $145 million. A maximum rookie extension topped out around $120 million according to the collective bargaining agreement. However, a provision existed, dubbed the “Rose rule”, that allowed the most successful of players to earn a greater percentage of salary every year of a rookie extension. With this latest series of injuries, Davis’ qualifications for that higher salary are now in question.
Rose Rule
In Fall of 2011, a new collective bargaining agreement was reached between the players and owners. One of the points that was negotiated was proper compensation for superstar players. While the rookie scale was set in place to save teams from overspending on players who would not develop, it put a cap on the possible earnings of those players who were clearly on another level from their peers. Thus, a provision was written in – later dubbed the “Rose rule” in honor of Chicago Bulls point guard Derrick Rose – that increased the starting point of a maximum salary for young players who hit certain thresholds. If in their first four season a player won MVP, was an All-Star starter in two separate seasons, or made an All-NBA team in two separate seasons, they were eligible for a contract starting at 30% of the cap, up from 25% for most players.
Derrick Rose signed an extension mere weeks after the CBA was ratified, earning the 30% raises he now deserved as the reigning league MVP. The league retroactively applied the rule to Kevin Durant, who qualified, and since then, Paul George and Blake Griffin have qualified for the max extension. This season, Damian Lillard should join that group, although with slightly less than 30% negotiated into his contract. A number of players negotiated the possibility into their contracts – James Harden, DeMarcus Cousins, Kyrie Irving, and John Wall – and failed to meet the criteria. Will Davis join them? If he is not voted to an All-NBA team at the end of this season, Davis misses out on $24 million. Has his play been at an All-NBA level?
Will Davis get it?
Davis’ numbers, while down slightly from last year’s breakout season, are still impressive. 24 points (7th in the league), 10 rebounds (8th), and two blocks (3rd) are standout numbers for most big men, and he’s been putting those up while surrounded by rec league players amidst the Pelicans’ swarm of injuries. His player efficiency rating of 25.2 is seventh in the league. However, his team is currently 26-44, and Davis has played in only 61 games, about 3/4 of his team’s games for the season. Will that be enough?
Luckily for Davis, the voting system supports him as a hybrid forward/center. The All-NBA votes for two guards, two forwards, and one center. Last year, Davis made the first team as a forward, and his primary position is listed as a power forward. However, according to Nylon Calculus’ playing time estimates, over 54% of Davis’ minutes have come at center this season. Therefore, Davis is eligible to receive votes at both positions, and the total of all votes will be what is considered. Therefore, even if Davis’ total ranks seventh or worse among forwards, he could still rank in the top three of centers, and vice versa.
Based on the support of the voting system, I do think Davis will make one of the All-NBA teams. The combination of votes from both positions should slot him onto the third team as either a forward (behind Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, Draymond Green, Durant, and Paul Millsap) or a center (behind DeMarcus Cousins and Andre Drummond). But the games-played factor, and the poor record for the Pelicans, will make it a close call.
Bigger Picture
Davis’ injury situation has a number of larger effects than simply money; the forward has to be concerned about his basketball future. Tendinosis is a much more serious knee condition than tendonitis, and many basketball players have struggled to come back from similar ailments. For a player with top-25 all-time upside just a year ago, the drop in athleticism after this operation could be significant. There is hope he can come back at 100%, but there is certainly no guarantee. Davis could not only lose $25 million on this contract, but tens of millions on subsequent deals as well if he cannot regain elite status.
In addition, Davis has to be concerned about his health as part of a New Orleans franchise that has struggled incredibly to treat and rehabilitate player injuries in the recent past. Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, Quincy Pondexter, Ryan Anderson – all have missed significant time over the past few years, and many had their timetables severely lengthened or suffered re-injury after attempting to come back. Davis announced that he has been playing on a torn labrum for three years! That’s a situation the Pelicans needed to address much sooner. What they are communicating as a franchise to their superstar, their players, and the league is that if you go to New Orleans, you won’t get proper medical attention. That’s a serious problem.
The Pelicans are certainly having similar fears as well. While they have certainly made mistakes as an organization on the medical front, many of these injuries were not their fault but are weaving into this narrative. In addition, Rose Rule bonus or not, they have $120 million or more locked up in a player having two surgeries. The long-term future of this franchise depends on a healthy Anthony Davis leading their team, and the future is in question.
There is a best-case scenario for New Orleans, however, if Davis comes back fully healthy. The potential failure to hit the Rose Rule threshold would open up cap space for New Orleans to build a team around Davis (something they’ve failed to do recently). And the inevitable losing streak that will follow Davis’ departure from the lineup could put them into position for a top draft pick; drafting a player such as Brandon Ingram or Buddy Hield could give them another star to pair with Davis. New Orleans could retool and start fresh on a new path to relevancy.
A final question: should the Rose Rule be changed? Anthony Davis is clearly one of the ten best players in the league, someone who surely deserves to be making more than Bradley Beal or Harrison Barnes will make as max-contract players. This is who the Rose Rule is supposed to reward. But the rule also should be hard to attain; it’s for those who play at the highest of levels during their first years in the league. While Davis has been great, much of the MVP buzz around him was based on potential, not his actual accomplishments. Derrick Rose had a rule made in his honor because he won MVP while leading a 60-win team to the playoffs. Davis’ Pelicans made the playoffs as an 8th seed on a tiebreaker last season, and this year, his team is sniffing the five worst records in the league. If he doesn’t make an All-NBA team, it will be because he didn’t earn it.
Conclusion
Anthony Davis is a tremendous talent, and the entire league is rooting for him to make a full recovery. He has a long recovery ahead of him, but success stories such as Dwayne Wade’s show that full recoveries are possible from this combination of injuries. Bigger questions arise from the situation, however, on whether the New Orleans Pelicans are properly caring for their players. That is an issue that could have league-wide ramifications and will bear watching in the coming months. For Davis, what he will be watching for are the All-NBA selections; any love for a great player in a terrible situation?
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