The Difference a Defense Makes

For those who don’t remember (shame on you) today is the one year anniversary of Francisco Lindor‘s promotion and debut in Major League Baseball. In his one calendar year, he has played in 161 games, batted .308/.355/.468 with 34 doubles, five triples, 19 home runs, 90 runs scored, 84 RBI and 22 steals to three times caught. His 7.3 WAR for a full season would have been third in AL last year had it taken place in one season rather than across two and with that stat line, he likely would have finished third or fourth in the MVP race rather than second in the Rookie of the Year.

This 7.3 WAR is the most in Indians history for a player in his first 162 games with the team and it may be time to look at him as not just the best player on the current roster, but one of the best ever at least for the start of a career. In comparison, Roberto Alomar, who was already an 11 year veteran and eight time All-Star on his way to becoming a Hall of Famer had a line of .323/.422/.533 in his first season in Cleveland with 37 steals and six times caught. This season was offensively superior to Lindor’s so far, but for it Alomar came third in the MVP vote, won a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger and went to the All-Star game. It also came in an era of significantly greater offense, in fact, the greatest offensive season as a team in the Indians nearly 100 year history at the time.

One reason why these two athletes compare so well is their defense. In that first full season, Alomar had a dWAR of 1.1, the third best in his career while Lindor has had a 2.6 over his first year of play. While Lindor’s offensive numbers have been impressive and were needed, it was nothing compared to the Indians dire situation defensively.

In 2014, the Kansas City Royals took the AL Pennant thanks in large part to 74.8 more runs saved than the average team. At the same time, the Indians finished third, five games out of first thanks largely to 64.8 more runs allowed defensively than the average team. This difference of 139 runs was essentially the only way the Royals were a better team than Cleveland as their overall run differential was just nine.

After finishing second to last defensively in 2014 and starting off much of the same in 2015, Lindor was the singular man to turn things around. In 2015, the World Champion Royals were still number one, but now, instead of finishing at the bottom, the Indians finished third defensively, even with that rough start. Now we can finally see what a season with just Lindor at short stop from the start can do and already, the Indians have saved nearly as many runs defensively (22.2) as they did all of last season (23).

You could say that this change had much to do with the completely reworked outfield as Lindor in the infield, but while the outfield is different, it is not necessarily better. Looking at the five most used outfielders by the Indians this year, Tyler Naquin (-5.6 UZR) and Lonnie Chisenhall (-0.4) have had an overall negative effect on the team defensively (according to FanGraphs) while Jose Ramirez (0.6) has been about league average with only Rajai Davis (1.6) and Marlon Byrd (2.9) considered positive influences. In addition, much of the positive output from Chisenhall, Davis and Byrd has been through their arm strength and all but Ramirez and Byrd are considered to have worse than league average range this year.

In the infield, the case is completely the opposite. Lindor has incredible range and it has rubbed off on the rest of the infield, particularly because he can field balls that someone in his position wouldn’t normally. At the moment, Jason Kipnis‘ 5.3 runs saved above average due to range, the best by far in his career, Lindor 4.9 and Juan Uribe 7.2. Looking deeper into Kipnis, he was often considered a lackluster defender during the early part of his career, despite the fact that by traditional methods (fielding percent and errors) he was always one of the best in the league. This was due to advanced stats, like UZR, taking his range into consideration. Playing alongside subpar short stops, Kipnis was being asked to cover more territory and that is something he isn’t great at. We’ve looked into this in the past, but injured or healthy, Kipnis has always completed an above average amount of plays at him and a below average amount to the sides.

This hit an extreme when he was injured in 2014, but even before then he didn’t stand out with -2.3, -1.9, -4.0 and -8.5 runs allowed due to range before having a complete turnaround last season, saving 4.3 more than the average second baseman. It is such a coincidence that this happened just as Lindor’s arrival decreased the amount of area he had to cover compared to when he played aside Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Ramirez. This year with Lindor around full time, that number has increased to the 5.3 mentioned above. Looking at FanGraphs Inside Edge Fielding that takes every batted ball into consideration, Kipnis has actually played worse on the extremely difficult balls, recording outs on 0 of 10 rated unlikely or harder, but he has completed 75% of the balls considered with a 40-60% chance and 98.1% of the balls considered routine.

Lindor on the other hand, has made 16.7% of remote plays (1-10%), 64.7% of unlikely (10-40%) and 100% of even plays. It is almost certainly because of this incredible range that both Kipnis and the aging Uribe have seen their personal defensive ratings rise (or in the case of Uribe, maintain despite his lack of mobility).

There is one final place that Lindor’s defense has made it’s presence felt. The Indians pitching staff has been largely the same for the past three seasons with Corey Kluber on top and Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar following him. It was because of this more than anything else that had people picking the Indians as favorites for the Central before the season, but even they have been made to look better by Lindor.

The chart above shows the Indians staff ERA and FIP over the past three years and it’s obvious the change that a partial season of Lindor, then a full season have had. Fielding Independent Pitching is essentially what a pitcher’s ERA should be taking away the luck and defensive aspects of the game, but keeping their strike outs, walks and home runs, stats that have proven over the years to mean more than other stats over the long term. Since FIP is what you’d expect a pitcher’s ERA to be with a league average defense, a team with a great defense will have a lower ERA than FIP and a team with a poor defense the opposite. In 2014, the Indians poor defense apparently cost the Tribe 0.15 runs per nine innings while that number improved to just 0.06 in 2015 with a partial season of Lindor.

This year, with even a break even outfield, Lindor and his infield has helped the Indians save 0.17 runs per nine compared to their expectations. Overall, this pitching staff has actually been the worst in the past three years (not as surprising when you consider that the starts of Cody Anderson and Mike Clevinger are included) yet their ERA has not been considerably effected thanks to that improved defense.

While there is plenty of cumulative evidence of his greatness, there was one individual point in Sunday’s game against Los Angeles stood out. In the sixth inning, Danny Salazar allowed a home run to Jefry Marte to bring the game to within four, a comfortable lead, but no guarantee. Terry Francona then went to his bullpen and Dan Otero, who quickly allowed a two out double to C.J. Cron. Todd Cunningham then hit a ground ball straight back up the middle and on that date a year ago, it would almost certainly would have been an RBI single, bringing the game to within three.

Not anymore, though as Lindor didn’t even leave his feet as he roamed up the middle to corral the ball and throw it to first to end the inning. The play is considered so expected by now that MLB.com didn’t even post a replay highlight, but it certainly saved the Indians a run and possibly a much closer game. That’s just what Lindor does. Without much fanfare, he makes the team and everyone he plays with better than they were simply by being himself.