Attempting to make sense of it is like attempting to make sense of Spike Lee’s outfit.
The Eastern Conference has been called a lot of things this year, mostly words that shouldn’t be heard by innocent ears. I could join that parade, slander what could end up as the worst conference of all time, but I’m not one to jump on such bandwagons. Contrary to all you nay-sayers, I think the Eastern Conference is amazing.
Let’s examine the standings from a month ago. On December 16th, the East ranked as follows:
- Indiana: 20-3
- Miami: 17-6
- Atlanta: 12-12
- Boston: 11-14
- Detroit: 11-14
- Charlotte: 10-14
- Washington: 9-13
- Chicago: 9-13
Only two teams over .500, and the Atlantic Division leading Celtics three games under. Most striking, only three wins separated places 3 and 8.
Now, the standings as of January 16th:
- Indiana: 30-7
- Miami: 27-11
- Atlanta: 20-18
- Toronto: 19-18
- Washington: 18-19
- Chicago: 18-19
- Detroit: 16-22
- Brooklyn: 15-22
The top three remain the same, but spots 4-8 have shifted all over the place, with Toronto and Brooklyn replacing Boston and Charlotte.Toronto, who a month prior had only nine wins, now leads the Atlantic and sits over .500. And Boston, who are currently twelve games under .500 (14-26) are only one and a half games back from the eight spot. The teams currently sitting in places 3-13 are separated by roughly seven wins, and Philadelphia (who many predicted could be one of the worst teams EVER at the beginning of the year) are only three games out of the playoffs.
What I find amazing is that in year when so much stock has been put talent and depth of the 2014 draft class, the majority of teams in the East, whether they want to make the playoffs or not, can’t get out of each other’s way. Tanking teams have found themselves ahead of teams that were pushing for a playoff run, and as teams scramble to figure out what to do with their teams, the East gets more and more unpredictable.
If we want to place blame anywhere, it is with New York, Brooklyn, Chicago, and Cleveland. Both NYC teams figured they wouldn’t be struggling just to make the playoffs, Chicago was thought to be a potential contender to Indiana and Miami and Cleveland, who some felt could be a seven or eight seed this year, have dealt with player issues and injuries all season. With these teams struggling, it was inevitable that teams not looking to make the playoffs would find themselves in the top eight. Philadelphia and Orlando both had small stints as the bottom seeds, and I doubt Boston predicted they would be the division leader a month ago.
Things may be starting to sort themselves out now, but in the East nothing is certain. While holding back on making final playoff predictions and what order this mess will end up in, let’s take a look at the eleven teams who are in or within reach of the playoffs and attempt to make some sense of them and the directions they are headed.
(Remember, these records are as of January 16th. Obviously, the records are slightly different now).
Atlanta
They’ve remained fairly consistent all year thanks to a strong home record of 14-6. Things got complicated when Al Horford went out with a season ending injury, and they are 4-6 since his absence. Paul Milsap has taken up the scoring load, he’s averaging 18.6 points a game (up from a season average of 17.3) but his shooting percentage is only 39%, down from a season average of 46%. Milsap, along with Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, and Lou Williams, will have to pick up their scoring load in Horford’s absence if they Hawks want to remain the third seed. One area they really miss Horford is the defensive end, the players stepping up in his absence Antic, Scott and Brand make for a relatively poor defensive anchors.
Even without Horford, the Hawks shouldn’t slip farther than the fifth seed, and even that far a slip is unlikely. They have been a well run team all season, made largely up of good players that compliment one another. Finishing third or fourth should be the goal for Atlanta, granting them a good matchup that and a strong consideration to make it to the Eastern semi-finals.
Toronto
A month ago Toronto looked on the verge of blowing it up. Rudy Gay was traded to Sacramento, and Kyle Lowry almost went to New York. Then the unexpected happened; the Raptors started winning. They are 13-6 since trading Gay, with other players stepping up in Gay’s absence. Of those, Terrence Ross has most benefited. He is averaging roughly 11.5 points a game in the months of December and January, with his minutes a game increasing to 25.6 in December and 31 in January. Now a starter, Ross is beginning to live up to his potential. General Greivis Vasquez, John Salmons, and Patrick Patterson (acquired in the Gay trade) have also helped shape a fairly well balanced bench.
The biggest factor though? Their improved defense, currently ranking 3rd in points allowed.
I’m not sure the Raptors were intending to get better when they traded Gay. The “Tank for Wiggins” movement was picking up steam, largely due to Wiggins’ Canadian roots. Now the Raptors looked primed for the playoffs, and I think any sort of tanking at this point should be avoided. DeMar Derozan is having a career year, Valanciunas has improved of late, and Lowry doesn’t get nearly enough credit at point guard. They aren’t title contenders, but they drafted or signed these three to get them into the playoffs, so at this point they should see how they fair at that stage. Even if they were to exit in the first round there is still room for improvement from Derozan, Valanciunas, and Ross, meaning the the Raptors likely haven’t hit their ceiling.
Washington
They started the year poorly, then found a bit of consistency, then struggled, and are now playing better again. Like Cleveland, they were picked as a lottery team to make the potential jump into the playoffs. John Wall signed a max deal $80 million dollar extension, signalling Washington’s belief he could lead them back to the post season. So far he’s lived up to the extension, averaging 19.8 points, 8.6 assists, and 1.9 steals a game, all career bests. Adding Marcin Gortat has provided more scoring down low than Emeka Okafor did last season, and in all six players are averaging at least 11 points a game.
Their goal was the playoffs, and while they struggled at times they find themselves a higher seed than most predicted, taking advantage of Brooklyn and New York’s struggles. I could see them slipping, particularly if the New York teams continue improving, but they should find themselves playoff bound for the first time since 2008.
Chicago
The Bulls are at odds with one another. Trading away Luol Deng looks like the first step in what could be a roster overhaul this offseason. You’d figure by trading away the team’s best player the Bulls would eventually slip out of the playoffs; instead the Bulls have gone 6-1 in what shouldn’t be seen as anything other than Tom Thibodeau’s troll game in midseason form. For the rest of the season the Bulls will be relying on Boozer, Butler, and Noah to pick up the scoring, and I wouldn’t call any of them offensively gifted. They are 29th in team scoring, yet they are a game under .500 because their defense is so good (2nd in points allowed). Granted, of their six wins since Deng’s departure only two, Atlanta and Phoenix, are quality wins, but the key here is that despite the organization’s every attempt to give up on the season the Bulls will not go away.
But should they be tanking? You could make a case for it, yet at the same time I don’t see Chicago rebuilding so much as reloading; Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Love, and Greg Monroe highlight potential free agents the Bulls could pursue, and while we can debate how realistic or good a fit they would be, what’s most important is the Bulls could be right back in the playoffs again next year, especially if Rose returns and stays healthy.
Detroit
Look I get it, the Pistons have been pretty much unwatchable for years now, and decided with so much money to spend they might as well bring in the biggest name free agent possible. So they signed Josh Smith, hoping he would thrive at the small forward position alongside Monroe and Andre Drummond, except that lineup has proved disastrous. Zach Lowe breaks it down:
The Smith/Monroe/Drummond trio has been a complete flop on both ends of the floor. Opponents have outscored the Pistons by 7.4 points per 48 minutes in the 716 minutes the three bigs have played together, per NBA.com. Of the 134 trios leaguewide who have logged at least 500 minutes, only two have registered a worse scoring margin — and they play for two franchises (Utah and Philly) that are not trying to win games.
It doesn’t get any better on defense either:
Detroit has allowed 110.2 points per 100 possessions with the ultra-big group, a mark that would rank well below Utah’s league-worst overall figure.
So the big-3 isn’t working, and the Pistons are eight games under .500. They are still in the playoffs, but don’t look like a legitimate threat to move up in the standings. Should they call it and tank? Probably not. They’ve invested a lot with Smith and Brandon Jennings (who is playing better mind you). Things have got to improve, and whether that means changing the rotation, or possibly trading Monroe (who is a RFA). But if Detroit finishes a seven or eight seed, its going to be a quick exit out of the playoffs.
Brooklyn
Quite frankly they have been a joke all year, but recently they’ve found good form and are in the playoff picture. Injuries made life hard for them, and losing Brook Lopez for the season won’t make it easy. The return of Andre Kirilenko has been most welcomed. Statisically he isn’t wowing anyone, but his return is a major reason for Brooklyn’s sudden success.
Tanking for this team is out of the question, they traded away a number of picks to get KG and Paul Pierce, and the goal was always to win now. Missing out on the playoffs would be a nightmare.
Charlotte
The Bobcats surprised everyone at the start of the year, and found themselves as high as the four seed at one point thanks to a stellar defense that was in the top three in points allowed. How long ago that feels. December came, and with it a broken hand to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Then Jeffrey Taylor was lost for the season, and the defense started to slide. Still unable to score, the Bobcats found themselves sliding down the standings and out of the playoffs.
I get the pundits advocating for Charlotte to miss the playoffs; the team still needs a lot of improvement and a top 10 pick could mean a shot at drafting a much needed scoring guard. On the other hand, making the playoffs would bring life to one of the least successful franchises in the league, bringing momentum into next season as the switch to the Hornets. If they are going for the playoffs its 6th seed or bust however, which makes me wonder if the team will look to trade for a wing scorer (someone who can hit three pointers would be nice) and make a run for that spot.
Cleveland
The Cavaliers traded for Loul Deng, making it clear they are going for the postseason. They have a long way to go however, and I can’t see them finishing higher than the seven seed. Anthony Bennett has had a historically bad rookie year, everyone is upset at Dion Waiters, and the team has struggled to adapt to Mike Brown’s system. Deng should bring stability, it won’t be easy going for Cleveland.
New York
There is just so much wrong going on in New York. Players can’t stay healthy, Bargnani can’t play defense, and just as they won five straight they lost two ugly games to Charlotte and Indiana. Any other team at this stage would be blowing it up, but the Knicks gave away every draft pick they had until 2035 to win now. JR Smith is likely done in New York, but no team will touch him unless the Knicks throw in a draft pick, and as we already know, they don’t have any. So its find a way to win at all costs for the Knicks, and right now I’m not so sure they can do it. Their January 20th game against Brooklyn now looks like their most important of the season.
Boston
They don’t want to make the playoffs, and made that clear by trading away Jordan Crawford and Marshon Brooks for Joel Anthony and a potential 1st rd pick (or two second rounders, depending on how the season ends). Rajon Rondo could complicate the tanking business, or could end up as a showcase for Boston to trade him away.
Is it likely they make the playoffs? Not really. But with the East changing as much as it has already, they could find themselves in an unwanted position.
Philadelphia
Michael Carter-Williams has been superb, and Nerlens Noel could make his debut by the All-Star break. The return of Jason Richardson could also give them a boost, but the Sixers struggles on defense make any playoff shot unlikely, and that should sit just fine with them. Evan Turner could be traded, as could Thaddeus Young and maybe even Spencer Hawes. Each have played well this year, and may not have higher trade value for the Sixers again.
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