With the news that the Indians have blown up the free agent market with the (still unofficial) signing of the top first baseman available, Edwin Encarnacion, the major splash will leave ripples all over. Below are a few of the major ones.
The End of Jesus
With the Indians 40 man roster full, they will have to cut someone and, while that could be a few players (including Austin Adams or for the similarity in names, Edwin Escobar) it should be Jesus Aguilar. Aguilar is out of options for next season, so he’d have to be on the 25 man roster or be exposed to waivers anyway. Without Encarnacion, Aguilar was on the depth chart as the other 1B/DH to go with Carlos Santana, but now there is no room for him in any capacity.
More importantly, this is a huge improvement for the team offensively. Fangraphs projects Encarnacion to be worth 2.2 WAR and a 125 wRC+ compared to -0.3 and 86 for Aguilar. This was easily the biggest improvement the Indians could possibly have made as every other position is held by an at least 1 WAR player. In addition, Encarnacion’s overall projection is greatly harmed by the expectation of poor defense, which won’t be an issue should the Indians start Encarnacion at DH and Santana at 1B.
A More Balanced Lineup
The Indians bargain basement hunting was extremely beneficial last season, getting solid seasons from Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis, but Encarnacion is on the next level. While Encarnacion’s increased value over Aguilar is apparent, it is not quite as much over Napoli. While Napoli was worth 1 WAR last year, nearly all of that value came early in the year when he was hitting .266/.350/.528 through August 16th. After that point, he hit .157/.292/.279 while striking out 44 times in 40 games to set the Indians single season record for K’s in a year. He was also nearly absent in the play-offs, when the Indians needed him most. Overall, he hit just .173 in the post-season including 11 strike outs in the World Series and just one home run throughout.
Despite all this, Terry Francona never moved Napoli down or out of the line-up. Not only is Encarnacion a better overall hitter than Napoli (particularly his 16.2% K-rate compared to Napoli’s 26.9%), but he shouldn’t run into the durability issues Napoli had as he set a career high in games played at the age of 34. Encarnacion will be 34 next year, but he is coming off a 160 game season and has averaged 143 games played over his past six seasons. If things go well, the Indians would be able to keep him at around 145 games with Santana, Yan Gomes, Michael Brantley and Roberto Perez all taking up some at bats at DH to keep their new slugger fresh for the inevitable deep post-season run.
Essentially, Encarnacion should provide peak Napoli power to the four hole all year, striking out less and hitting more home runs. Adding in Michael Brantley at #5, this should be an extreme improvement over last year’s nine (especially if Gomes can get back his usual production level) that was already the second in the AL in runs scored.
Financial Considerations
This move was made specifically to win the World Series at some point over the next three years and the best chance will be to win in the next two as with the $65M ($20M per year) guaranteed to Encarnacion could very well mean that the Indians will be unable to retain Santana after 2017 and Brantley, Cody Allen and Andrew Miller after 2018. This is not to say the Indians won’t have replacements ready by then, but the window of the current squad is now…now.
The money given to Encarnacion marks both the highest average annual value and greatest total value give to any player in team history and by any measure, he is the biggest free agent signing since Roberto Alomar in December, 1998. In addition, the Indians were already set to have the highest team salary in franchise history (a number that will continue to increase significantly in 2018) and Encarnacion will be making about 16% of that depending on how everything works out.
This also most likely means that the Indians are done adding salary this off-season and could even possibly try to shrink it a bit by trading some players due large raises such as Lonnie Chisenhall and Bryan Shaw, who are both set to be free agents after the 2017 season. Given the current market for relievers, Shaw could bring back a hefty price in prospects and save the team a few million, although it would hurt one of their greatest strengths. Chisenhall has less value, but is much more easily replaceable, especially since Brantley will now need to play in the outfield regularly with Encarnacion and Santana taking the majority of the playing time at DH and first. In fact, a move of Chisenhall would not only save about $4M, but would simplify a roster heavy with outfielders with severe deficiencies in one area or another.
Long Term Goals
During the long period of rumor and speculation surrounding Encarnacion’s suitors, one of the potentialities discussed was that he could possibly sign a 2-3 year deal with an opt out after year one, allowing him to sign a longer deal should he have another great season. Instead, he got his three guaranteed seasons with an option for the fourth that, knowing nothing other than the fact that he will be 37 and it will be for $20, that the Indians will probably not use.
As mentioned, Santana will very likely be gone after 2017 making Encarnacion the main man at 1B/DH. It’s possible the Indians could move Brantley to DH in 2018, but after that they’ll need to hope for more from Nellie Rodriguez than Aguilar has produced to this point, a quick advancement of Bobby Bradley or the emergence of someone unknown. Encarnacion is a stop gap, an extremely talented one that gives the Indians the best chance to win the World Series in 2017 and 2018, even if he could potentially hamper those chances over the following two season.
There was literally no better signing the Indians could have made this off-season and if the front office were to sit on what they have done to this point and wait until Spring Training, all Indians fans should be extremely happy. It wouldn’t be surprising, however, to see the team that should already be favored to repeat as AL Champs make a few more minor adjustments before attempting a repeat as pennant winners, something never before accomplished in franchise history.
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