We were looking for some ideas about what to do during the bye week. Thanks to a reader suggestion from our buddy Mark, we have this week’s mid-week analytic post.
The suggestion was to compare the current edition of the black and gold to how the 2008 team stood at this point in the season.
Due to a few mitigating factors in the NFL schedule, I have chosen to compare the 2009 Steelers as they stand now (after week 7) to the 2008 Steelers after week 8. Last year, the Steelers had a bye week in week 6, so it will be easier to compare the first 7 games of each season. Also, as it happens, week 8 last year fell on the last Sunday in October, so this can also be seen as an “end of October” comparrison.
There has been a lot of commentary out there about how this team differs from last year’s team (particularly in the 4th quarter defense and Special teams categories). Let’s take a look and see how the 2009 team stacks up against the Super Bowl XLIII Champs.
For starters, both teams started the season with a 5-2 record. The 2009 team had to deal with the loss of Troy Polamalu. The 2008 team had no such injury to deal with on the defensive side of the ball. Both of our losses in 2009 were close games on the road. None of them compare to the utter shitshow we had in Philadelphia last year where we got utterly dominated. Our second loss of 2008 came to the New York Giants, where the Giants scored 12 points in the 4th quarter to win 21-14. That was also the game where long snapper Greg Warren went down with an injury and James Harrison was forced into snapping duty.
After 7 games, the 2008 Steelers had scored 155 points and given up 110. Their losses were by a combined 16 points. They had 1 overtime win. In 2009, the Steelers have scored 167 points and given up 129. Their losses were by a combined 6 points. We have had 1 OT win this season as well. As you can see, we have scored more points this year, but also given up more. As we move forward, this is a likely theme that will emerge: a better offense, and a slightly worse defense.
Since the offense has been the bright spot of the team this season, that is where we’ll start. The Steelers have found the end zone in all 7 games this season, and Ben has thrown for over 300 yards in 3 games, equalling his total for all of last season. Additionally, he has thrown for over 275 in five games, something he did only 4 times last season. Ben has 2062 yards in 7 games this season, which is more yards than he threw for in the first 11 games last season when he threw for 3301 yards. Ben is on pace to shatter his career high in passing yards (3513 in 2006) as he already has more yards than he did through 9 weeks in 2006.
Compared to last year, the offense has 642 more passing yards (which includes sack yardage) and a similar amount of rushing yards. The one area that deviates from the trend we have seen is in touchdowns. The Steelers have 18 touchdowns this season (12 passing and 6 rushing), which is nearer to their 17 (11 passing, 6 rushing) from 2008 than one would expect with the yardage being put up through the air. One potential explanation for that is in the turnover department, where the Steelers have committed 3 more turnovers this season (13) than they did a year ago at this point.
On the other side of the ball, the loss of Troy Polamalu is evident in the statistics. While the front 7 have continued to put up great numbers against the run, the pass defense has suffered.
The pass defense has given up 350 more yards in 7 games than it did last year, along with 3 more touchdowns (9 in 2009, 6 in 2008). The run defense, on the other hand, has been relatively comparable. The yardage against is similar, and have held opponents to only 2 rushing TDs (a minimal improvement from 3 last year). Even though the defense has been maligned for the supposed lack of turnovers they have created, they are at the same place they were last season with 10 takeaways.
And now for the striking difference. Defensive and Special Teams touchdowns. Last season at this point, the Steelers had one defensive touchdown – LaMarr Woodley’s fumble return against Baltimore (on a Renegade drive, might I add). They also had one defensive touchdown against – a pick-6 by Rasheen Mathis on the first drive in Jacksonville.
This season, the numbers are decidedly different. Our defense has put up 2 touchdowns – both in the Minnesota game – while we have allowed 5 touchdowns on returns. Two of those came on pick-6’s (Cincinnati and Detroit), two on kickoff returns (Cleveland and Minnesota), and one on the terrible call in the San Diego game when Jacob Hester took the ball from Stefan Logan when his forward progress was clearly stopped.
Is Polamalu’s injury the sole factor in the difference in defensive stats between this year and last year? It certainly has played a role, but I wouldn’t say it’s the only factor. Last year’s defense was a thing of beauty that might come around once in a decade. That defense is immortalized with the other great defenses in NFL history because they brought home the hardware. That’s not to say that the 2009 defense isn’t going to be good. However, in 2008 teams were attacking the Steelers based on what they thought was possible based off the 2007 model. In 2007, the Steelers gave up plays down the field, were vulnerable to crossing routes, and didn’t generate a whole lot of pressure on the quarterback. With the switch from Clark Haggans to LaMarr Woodley, the QB pressure shot up, creating one of the most dominant OLB tandems in the league. Teams have adapted to this, and are using more short passes to backs and tight ends, along with quick-outs to WRs.
The Steelers will give up these plays, and that’s fine. What does it mean? The ball is coming out faster, so there are less opportunities for sacks. However, when QBs have held the ball and looked downfield, Harrison and Woodley have been putting the heat on. Through 7 games, Harrison already has 8 sacks, and is on pace to break his team-record 16.5 sacks that he set last season. He does this while getting held every play.
Last season, we were in a slightly better place than we are this year. We were 5-2, but both of our losses had come to NFC teams. We were leading our division, ahead of a 4-3 Baltimore team and vomit-inducingly bad Cleveland and Cincinnati clubs. This season, we are right in the thick of the race against a 5-2 Cincy team and 3-3 Ravens club. We lost at Cincy, but have a game against them at home in a few weeks. We still are in control of our own destiny and if we beat Cincy, we’ll be back in control of the division race.
In conclusion, as we have seen on the field and now have the statistical evidence to back up, this team is better on offense and slightly worse on defense than last year’s team. However, it’s important to remember that last year’s team was one of the best defenses in NFL history, which means that it is entirely possible for this team to be a Top 5 Defense (we are 8th right now). With the emergence of Rashard Mendenhall, the offense is clicking on all cylinders and with an offense like that, we’re going to be in every game.
Hope you all enjoyed this week’s Mid-Week Analytic Post! If you have any suggestions for what you’d like to see from us over the bye week, let us know!
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