The end of the line for Varitek?

Think I’ll walk out in the rain

The game’s up

These lyrics are from Roxy. To be honest, I’ve never heard of Roxy before, but I was sitting at work yesterday and realized something: Jason Varitek could be at the end of the line. Procrastinating at work, I googled “end of the line” and found these lyrics, and they seem to be applicable to Jason Varitek. This song definitely sounds like something we would say to Varitek.

It’s only the beginning of May, so if Jason Varitek suddenly hits .350/.450/.550 for May, this column is going to look pretty silly. However, facts are facts: Jason Varitek does not look the same anymore.

His numbers on the season prior to last night’s game: .240/.318/.347. That is worse than his 2006 season, which is the season that raised many concerns among Red Sox fans, after he finished at .238/.325/.400 in 103 games, his lowest total since 2001, when he broke his elbow diving for a foul ball. (The Red Sox acquired Doug Mirabelli to plug the hole created by Varitek’s injury.)

Varitek has never been considered a possible Hall of Famer, but in his prime, he put together quite an impressive number of seasons. His career line to date is .268/.347/.448 and his best season came in 2004, when he hit .296/.390/.482. From 2001 through 2005, he was statistically one of the better catchers in the game.

The wheels started falling off in 2006, though, and now we’re at the point where I have to wonder if Varitek is at the end of the line.

This is not something I want to admit, but it’s fast becoming a reality. It’s simple: Varitek is not hitting. But what exactly is he not doing as well? His K/BB is 1.89 on the year. Last year, it was also 1.89. In 2005, his last good year, it was also 1.89. This means that he’s walking and striking out at the same pace he always has. So what is it that’s changed?

28 percent of the time that he logged an at-bat in 2005, he got a hit. In 2006, that sank to 24 percent of the time, but that’s only a four percent difference. Is that significant? Well, he’s hitting .240 this year (finished at .238 last year) and is hitting the ball 24 percent of the time, just like last year. If he was hitting the ball 28 percent of the time this year, he would be hitting .280 right now. So yes, a four percent difference is making all the difference in the world.

How about Varitek’s power? I’m trying something different, something that may not be an actual statistic (if it is, please let me know). We all know a homerun is worth four bases, a triple three, a double two, and a single one. How many total bases has he gotten this year, excluding singles? He’s hit two homeruns, zero triples and two doubles. That’s 12 total bases. Dividing by at-bats gives us a .160 total bases for power average. (By the way, slugging percentage is what I described, but factoring in singles as well.)

Why am I taking out singles and thereby not using slugging percentage? Because I don’t want singles to factor into this average, but I want it to factor in total at-bats because if he’s hitting singles, it should be a detriment to his total bases for power average. I want to see a direct result of if his power has dissapeared. Let’s do this for 2006. His total bases for power average (TBP) was .252. In 2005, his last good season? .321.

My stat that I just made up may not be any good, but you can’t argue with the results. He hit for a .321 TBP in 2005, it sank to .252 in 2006, and it’s at an abysmal .160 in 2007.

Jason Varitek is hitting 24 percent of all balls for hits (hence his .240 batting average, for those missing the correlation) … but he’s not hitting those 24 percent for as much power as last year, and never mind the power he hit his 28 percent for in 2005.

I asked Statistically Speaking‘s Pizza Cutter if my statistic had any promise or if it was laughable. His reply confirmed something: first of all, I’m an idiot for thinking I came up with a newfangled statistic that no one had thought up before. Second, it confirmed that it’s far too early to write off Varitek.

You’ve actually described a stat that looks an awful lot like isolated power (ISO), which was actually created by Branch Rickey. Considering that Rickey was the man who had the testicular fortitude to break the color barrier in baseball by signing Jackie Robinson, I’d consider that your and his minds are working in tandem to be a high compliment. One of the things not commonly known about Rickey was that he was a stathead way ahead of his time.

The formula for isolated power is SLG – AVG. To break that down mathematically, SLG is (1B + 2* 2B + 3* 3B + 4*HR) / AB. AVG is (1B + 2B + 3B + HR) / AB. Since the denominators are equal, it makes subtraction that much easier. The formula for ISO then is (2B + 2*3B + 3*HR) / AB. Since a double is one “extra” base over a single, it gets a weight of one, a triple two, an HR three. Your formula seems to have an empirical formula of (2*2B + 3*3B + 4*HR) / AB. Yours is a little different, and it will favor a player who hits doubles more than the original formula, but as you can see, the form is roughly the same.

As far as Varitek goes, Bill James was kind enough to remind us that 30 points of batting average is equal to about one hit every two weeks. The phenomenon of aging isn’t really understood very well. We do know that players do seem to develop “old player” skills, that is walking, striking out, and hitting home runs. They lose speed, both in their legs and bat. Varitek is 35, and has been catching in the majors for 10+ years. Taking a look at some of Varitek’s particulars, he’s showing a trend toward becoming a more patient and selective hitter. He’s taking more pitches, but making more contact on the pitches he does swing at. In 2004, he swung 7% more of the time, and wouldn’t you know it, he set a career high in strike outs. Varitek is simply becoming a different type of hitter. He’s working the count in his favor more often. It’s part of getting older. It probably means some loss of extra base hits, but gain in walks.

But, to ease your mind, Varitek has had about 70 AB this year. It’s hard to draw a representative sample from 70 AB. It’s likely he’s on the decline, but give the guy a couple more weeks before you start writing his professional obituary.

Whether this is just a slump to begin the year or not, it’s still vastly concerning.

Fortunately, we have a replacement ready. A replacement that will probably be called up in September to cut his teeth, and a replacement who will probably back up Varitek next year.

Let’s look at Kottaras. Kottaras’ history can be found at Sox on Deck, so I’m just going to concentrate on what he’s done this year and his TBP from previous years. Kottaras is hitting .200/.324/.350 on the year in 60 AB. Not a good way to start the year, and he also hit .210/.286/.361 in 199 AB for San Diego’s Triple-A Portland club last year. Nevertheless, in those 60 AB, his TBP is .267, or essentially a tick better than Varitek hit for last year. For last year’s Portland club, Kottaras hit for a .260 TBP. In 257 AB for AA Mobile last year, he hit for a .221 TBP, so his power has been zooming up lately as he matures, unsurprising for a 23/24-year old. His career minor league numbers not including this year are .283/.383/.450, so he’s a pretty good hitter. Once Kottaras makes more contact (this is where singles are a good thing) he should become a legitimate possibility to take over as starting catcher in the future. For now, however, he’s only an option in the minors, and someone that we look to to save us from Tek’s decline.

It must be noted, however, that Kottaras is hitting against AAA pitching, not against major league pitching.

Look, Varitek’s a good player, and I don’t have a problem with him being a catcher for this year and next year, as he will do under contract. Heck, I would sign up for Varitek past 2008, but here’s the problem: Catchers are paid $10 million to hit. They are not paid $10 million to do what Varitek excels at in addition to hitting: the defensive side of the plate. Varitek is a Gold Glover, pitchers cite him as one of the best catchers they’ve ever worked with, and his game planning, his leadership skills … they are all tremendously valuable to a club.

But the longer we pay a .664 OPS a $10 million salary, the longer we’re handicapping ourselves. I know that sounds funny coming from the team that just reversed its three-year trend of sending payroll down, but the Red Sox do have a salary limit, something the Yankees do not. We will not permanently be this high.

I hope Jason Varitek hits for a .300 TBP by the end of May and makes all his “critics” silent.

But increasingly, this looks like the end of the line for Jason Varitek.

The results of the poll:

Evan thinks May is the toughest month for the entire year. How do you think we will do?

* Even better than April!

5% of all votes

* Just as good as April.

20% of all votes

* Not as good as April, but nothing to be worried about.

59% of all votes

* We’ll stumble a bit, the schedule is pretty harsh.

16% of all votes

* Batten the hatches! This team will be exposed for what it is: bad!

0% of all votes

I voted for the third option (Not as good as April, but nothing to be worried about.) simply because that’s the most prudent option, I think. New poll!