The NHL season is still young (“Thank goodness,” said the CBJ fans), and yet it’s already tempting to look at the developing trainwreck in Buffalo. The Sabres have picked up a few lucky wins thanks to their goalies. Other than that? It’s bleak. James Mirtle detailed just how poor Buffalo has been and projects to be (a chance to rival the expansion Thrashers for all-time low points? Maybe). TSN’s Travis Yost gave context to the Sabres’ October, and it’s a pretty shocking result. (Yost later noted the March 2014 Maple Leafs should feature on the plot; the bottom-barrel Buffalo showing is unchanged by this).
Results are in and it was even worse than projected. pic.twitter.com/fFO3EVCbrz
— Travis Yost (@travisyost) November 1, 2014
Even if we think this is an all-time-low anomaly and Buffalo must go up? “Up” might only get the Sabres to around a 41% Fenwick close based on last year. And remember, they bought out their best player from 2013-14 (current Penguin Christian Ehrhoff). On top of that, consider a full season without long-proven workhorse goalie Ryan Miller (to Vancouver). This team is made to lose.
The Grand Last Prize
The obvious reasons for the Great Tank Effort are Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel. McDavid is doing outrageous things in Erie this year (on top of his outrageous things the previous two years). As of this writing, he’s at a 3 point per game pace which blasts him past even the best comparables I considered in June. Using NHLe for a rough estimate, McDavid projects as around a 70 point NHL player next year. That would be the best rookie season since Patrick Kane’s in 2007-08. Of note, only 18 players had 70+ points in the NHL last season.
How about Eichel? He’s no slouch and also touted as a franchise-changing player. Currently, he sits just shy of 2 points per game in regular season play. Remember, college hockey is a low-scoring venue and only 4 players have averaged 1.80 points per game or more since 2002-03 (Kunitz, Sejna, Miele, and Gaudreau). If Eichel continues, it’ll be a feat made all the more remarkable given age. Eichel is the 4th youngest player in Division 1 hockey this year (more than two years below the average age of the youngest team).
But we already know the top two pick thing. Buffalo’s not even hiding the fact, hosting the Otters last month and Eichel in the All-American Prospects Game in Septemper. One of these guys would give the Sabres a first line. They need more to make this cluncker of a team work, right?
The Serious Rebuild
The little secret about the Sabres: Buffalo has been at their rebuild for more than just this tank. Check out the Sabres CapGeek page and scroll down to non-NHL players. It’s down here that you’ll find the supporting pieces of the true rebuild. The Sabres have a glut of players under 25 and most are not with the NHL team.
The makeup of that youth movement: 20 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 4 goalie under the age of 25. While there’s no certainty of success (as is true of all prospects), the high points are quite interesting even without the 2015 draft picks.
Let’s start on forward. Centers Tyler Ennis and Zemgus Girgensons are both regular NHLers at this point, even ignoring the quality of their current team. Also to come from center? Recent 2nd overall pick Sam Reinhart and still-only-twenty-year-old Mikhail Grigorenko. Kevin Sundher (age 22) and Phil Varone (23) are former high-scoring CHLers and developing with the AHL Rochester Americans. There’s a lot to like here.
At defense, first rounders Rasmus Ristolainen and Nikita Zadorov are both starting their NHL experience this year (although the Zadorov thing is a bit complicated). Each have a history of reasonable scoring, so top-level success seems likely. Mark Pysyk and Jake McCabe (one of the NCAA’s top d-men last year) are currently with Rochester. Joining them in the AHL: Jerome Leduc (decent draft year offense) and former Lowell blueliner Chad Ruhwedel.
The list under 25 gets longer if we consider the six unsigned second round players from the past two Buffalo drafts. Now we’re up to 32 of these young skaters in the Sabres system.
And that McDavid-Eichel draft? It’s not all about them, even for Buffalo. 32 draft-eligible players started the year with “A” ratings from NHL Central Scouting, and TSN’s initial rankings describe some of the elite talent. The Buffalo interest is across the first round with three such picks (their own, one from the Blues, and one from the Islanders).
Turnover in a Year (or Two)
This season is going to suck for Sabres fans. But as soon as the season is over and the draft is done? The switch can happen right away. Let’s imagine an ideal rapid change situation in the next few years.
Forwards first. Use all of: McDavid/Eichel, Ennis, Girgensons, Reinhart, Grigorenko, Sundher, Varone. Maybe include Hodgson, perhaps another NHL-ready forward from the 2015 draft, or another breakout young guy? That’s potentially 7-10 forwards ready to replace the current crop of miserable players (and only 3 listed here are currently in the NHL).
Next defense. Using Ristolainen seems easy enough. Get Pysyk, Zadarov, McCabe, Leduc, and Ruhwedel ready? That’s perhaps a full set of 6 defensemen ready to boot the porous bunch ahead of them.
That’s a massive overhaul, and the Sabres are in position to make that change because they have everyone available. Even further, their current roster is a disaster and can be effectively erased really soon. From CapGeek again: of the players currently on the NHL Sabres, only 7 forwards and 5 d-men will be under contract next year. That drops to 5 F, 3 D the year after. It’s brilliant construction for a sudden swap.
In just one or two years, Buffalo can make the switch from Tankland to executing on promise. It’s a remarkable setup and might represent a huge turnaround in record time. Yes, one of McDavid or Eichel is a big part of that plan. Also true? That top pick will join a number of new (but not new to the system) faces. That’s how you force a culture change, a talent change by sheer numbers.
The future starts next year and the year after in Buffalo, and not just because of one player from a one-year tank.
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