If I’m reading fans right, they’re pretty jaded when it comes to C.J. Cron. I don’t blame them. When guys like me start popping off right after the draft about how these kids are going to come up and save the Angels, it gets people’s hope up. He was going to hit 30 home runs a year with good plate discipline and be the Angels starting first baseman.
Then reality happened, Cron’s aggressive nature knocked any hope of plate discipline away. The 30 homers became a pipe-dream because Cron swung at too many pitches that he couldn’t hit out of the park. He couldn’t be the first baseman of the future because of his shortcomings defensively, and Albert Pujols’ presence. To compound the problem, Cron was so dominant in Spring Training, it appeared that at the very least, the Angels would still have an effective DH to deploy. Once the season started however, Cron’s production went in the tank and the Angels offense was basically a black hole of production from the DH spot. In essence, everything C.J. Cron was supposed to be, he isn’t.
So for fans that don’t trust Cron, I apologize for leading you to believe he may be something he isn’t. However, moving forward, it may turn out that C.J. Cron is precisely what the Angels need.
The big knock has always been Cron’s inability to make adjustments, he simply got by in the minors because of his uncanny ability to both make contact and hit the ball further than his counterparts, which are both good things. But in the major leagues, pitchers will figure out how to pitch to you, infields will shift, outfields will realign and the world will be a dark and scary place when you’re only hitting .200.
I believe that it’s entirely possible that C.J. Cron DOES have the ability to make adjustments, they just aren’t as quick as someone like Mike Trout (duh!). But more importantly, I believe C.J. Cron is somewhat of a late bloomer and that the best is yet to come.
Consider that in his first full season in the minor leagues, Cron was essentially a dead-pull, fly ball hitter, but that isn’t entirely surprising. The biggest thing to take away is that Cron popped up on the infield more than just about anyone in the league, at 9% of his at bats. In the Cal League, that’s about once every two games, his popping up to the first or third baseman. Hitters generally only do this when they’re fooled by the pitch, or their timing is off, or both.
Cron moved into the pitching friendly confines of Dickey Stephens Park in Arkansas, and the surface numbers understandably went down: .273 bating average with 34 doubles and 14 home runs. But as we saw, Cron began to transition into a hitter that uses the whole field, this new approach didn’t come without its warts.
You see, there are certain pitches you can and can’t hit out of the park. Cron sacrificed the dead pull, power ways of the past for a more balanced approach of spraying line drives and ground balls to all fields. For the first time in his career, he was hitting more line drives than a league average player, and his BB% improved since the year before.
So we’ve seen Cron move from dead pull, to using the whole field. He’s still being fooled and swinging at pitches he has no business swinging, but he’s at least attempting to refine.
By the time C.J. reached AAA, his infield pop-up percentage had inflated to 13% of his at bats, which is laughable. It’s clear he’s just flat out unaware of what’s being thrown in his direction. But what happens when power hitters go to the most power friendly field in the most power friendly league in the minors? Extra base hits, that’s what happens. Cron hit 22 in only 60 games. Loosely translated to the majors, this means Cron ends up pacing himself for 60 per year. In fact, the only thing we can take from this stint is that Cron was hitting more line drives, grounders and going the other direction more than ever before.
So Cron had continued his earlier work in watching pitches and using the field. So is that what happened in the majors last year? Nope, just the opposite actually, he reverted right back into the dead-pull, swing at everything hitter he was before.
But the worst thing that could’ve happen to Cron in this situation did. He found some measured success in the majors with this approach. It looked as if all the work in the minors was being thrown out because in the majors, C.J. found success just the same way he did in college, swing real hard and hit it to left field.
Then something magical happened. He came into this season with a similar approach and the result was weak or no contact at all. Major league pitchers chew up and spit out dead pull hitters that swing for the fences and that’s exactly what C.J. Cron was entering this season. The Angels finally did the smart thing and sent Cron back down to AAA. He simply wasn’t going to be helping the Angels at all, not with his approach.
Normally this would be the part where I’d tell you about something Cron did right that helped him right the ship, except that simply isn’t the case. Cron didn’t do anything differently in AAA, at least from a statistical perspective. He’s still a dead-pull hitter swinging the bat for power. No Cron didn’t change at all. In fact, he just did what power hitters do in Salt Lake, which is hit the ball a mile. The fact that the Angels promoted him had a lot less to do with the fact that he had made adjustments and a lot more to do with the fact that they really didn’t have a better option.
Once he was promoted, an intriguing thing happened, his approach shifted back to what it was the years before in AA/AAA, which meant using the whole field. He entered the month of July with an average around the Mendoza Line and finished the month hitting .269, which only took a .343 average for the month to accomplish. He quadrupled his number of homeruns in one month and doubled his number of doubles and number of walks. Through five games in August, more of the same, walks, homeruns and doubles.
So what’s the difference, and is it here to stay?
Well we know the difference, Cron has refined his approach. Believe it or not, his swing percentage, percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone and opposite field base hits have all reached average at the major league level. This means Cron’s laying off balls, swinging at strikes and using the whole field. Cron’s line drive percentage is a full 6% higher than an average major league hitter, and plate appearances per home run and extra base hit are all well above the major league average. This means that not only is C.J. being more selective with his approach, he’s making harder contact than ever before.
The walks aren’t there still, but in many circles it is believed that this is an area which simply cannot be taught. Either a hitter is born with it, or they aren’t and it’s clear that Cron isn’t. This is what prevents Cron from taking his rightful spot as a #5 hitter for the Angels, but the offensive profile outside of that actually shows him quite favorably.
But is he here to stay? Can he maintain the second half resurgence we’ve seen from him?
There’s reasons to believe he can and can’t.
Because of his previous experience in refining his approach in AA and AAA, there’s decent reason to believe this could be Cron moving forward. At those levels, he improved his LD%, BB% and used the whole field more so than previous seasons despite an increase in competition. This indicates that Cron and the Angels are very aware of what he needs to do to succeed, and that Cron CAN make adjustments, they just seem to be the sort that take a couple months to process and work themselves out, as evidenced by his last stint in AAA. Then there’s the whole idea of adjusting to major league pitching. Few hitters can come up and dominate immediately. Even Trout in his very first partial season with the Angels hit only .220 (as a 19-year old). The fact that Cron is now finding some success after altering his approach isn’t surprising at all, in fact it’s expected.
However, we should also bare in mind that Cron’s BB% isn’t conducive toward major league success. The fact is, it’s really difficult to be a good major league hitter without the ability to take a walk. Pitch recognition is a huge part of the offensive game and in the past, Cron just didn’t have it. He’s also been hitting around .350 since his return and Cron just isn’t a .350 hitter. Major League pitchers can adjust so frequently that it’s probably only a matter of time before they figure out a way to get Cron out again with his new approach.
The truth likely lies somewhere in between the two. Cron has refined his approach to something that’s going to better fit a major league career. It’s unlikely he’ll ever slump again the way he did to start this year. And at the same time, he isn’t as good as he’s been over the last month. The .264/.301 BA/OBP Cron is sporting right now, is slightly deflated because of his two months of slump, one month of pump. Chances are C.J. will settle in right around .275/.320 for hit career, which is quite similar to Erick Aybar’s offensive profile. Cron’s power output however, should improve, nearly to levels we’ve seen over the past month, which would put him on pace for 25-ish home runs a year and 30-35 doubles per year.
In conclusion, Cron may be what the Angels need moving forward. And for the next few years, .275/.320 with 30+ DB and 20+ HR’s should be about what the Angels will get from Cron. Because of his free swinging approach, he’s ill fit for the #5 spot in the lineup. But he should be a good source of power for the bottom of the Angels lineup in the future.
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