I thought all day about something good to write about. After losing the final two to the Royals and the opener to the White Sox (in grand, lead-surrendering fashion), coupled with the Yankees’ having cut the AL East lead to seven games, though, there’s not a whole lot to write about. I like the title of Zach’s game thread: Please…Please Win.
So I came home, turned the game on in the fifth inning (typically, the Sox were down 3-1), and immediately saw Coco Crisp clear the bases with a triple down the right field line. After the inning, I switched over to my9 and saw to my great delight that the Yankees were down 9-0 to the Devil Rays.
Maybe things will be okay after all.
Let’s go back to Coco Crisp: even without the triple, he has been on a tear lately. Has he turned the corner back towards “Good Coco”? The Coco we remember from last year before his finger injury sidelined him for a third of the season? The Coco who we gave a $15.5 million, three year extension on the strength of a hot start? Let’s check this out.
Since June 15th, Coco is hitting .366 with a .427 OBP and a .634 SLG. He has failed to reach base safely only twice in that span. Over the 27 games, he scored seventeen runs and batted in fourteen runs (including four home runs). This is not counting his clutch triple tonight. At the point his hot streak started, he was hitting .221. He’s now pulled it up to .266.
How about last year? Prior to his injury (in only five games), his OBP was .385 and his SLG .458. After the injury, he only was able to manage a .313 OBP and a .380 slugging percentage.
These achievement gaps are almost identical: Coco has had distinct stretches over the past two seasons where his OPS has been around 125% what it is for the rest of the season. Obviously in his maiden Red Sox voyage he was still hampered by the aftermath of his injury (and, perhaps, was never truly ready to return in the first place) for the rest of the season.
What accounts for his suddenly having woken up this season? Well, it could again have been injury. When Crisp missed four games at the very end of June, inadvertently providing for our first glimpse of Jacoby Ellsbury, it may have been the break he needed. His third game after returning from the thumb injury on July 3rd, Crisp delivered a season-high five RBI game. Since his return, he has had five multi-hit games. He has not been caught stealing.
On top of his hot hitting recently are his baserunning and fielding skills. According to Baseball Prospectus’ metrics, Crisp’s 26 equivalent runs added above replacement level as a result of his fielding not only easily leads the team but is in fact approximately equal to Manny Ramirez’s entire offensive contribution this year. And while his 77% stolen base success rate is below last year’s mark, it is still well above his career average and good for thirty-ninth in the major leagues this year. If he continues the rest of the year at even 80% of the numbers he has put up over the last month he will be a solid leadoff option from here on out.
[Post Script: The lead that Crisp’s triple earned would prove decisive, and the Sox would expand their lead back to eight games over the Yankees.]
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