At the end of every season, I update the top ten positional lists with any changes. For example, this year Cody Allen moved up the list of top ten closers and Carlos Santana moved from the catcher list to the first basemen list. In the general update for all the lists, I also like to make a note for certain players who seem like they should be on the list, even if they aren’t quite yet. In particular, with a career line of 39 wins in 99 starts, a 3.37 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 688 strike outs in 654.2 innings it certainly seems like Corey Kluber should be near the top, especially since there are two starting pitcher lists, but the fact is, he’s not even close.
The fact is, starting pitchers have made up the majority of super stars for the Indians over their history and of the top ten pitchers in innings pitched, five are in the Hall of Fame as Indians (Bob Feller, Bob Lemon, Stan Coveleski, Addie Joss and Early Wynn) with a couple others who are arguably deserving of a spot in the hall in Mel Harder and Sam McDowell. In all, 30 Indians pitchers have thrown more than 1,000 innings with the team and most were not just innings eaters as the rest of the list features Cy Young winners C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Gaylord Perry and Bartolo Colon and other All-Stars and general big names like Charles Nagy, Gary Bell, Wes Ferrell, Mudcat Grant and Luis Tiant.
The point in all this is that if Kluber, Carlos Carrasco or any of the other rotation members wants to break into this elite group, they will need to continue their current level of play for at least three or four more seasons with around 200 innings each. Even with this, to measure up against the real greats they will need at least 2,000 innings (Joss held an ERA of 1.89 over 2,327 IP, Feller a 3.25 over 3,827 IP), a number they would have to pitch between seven and eight more seasons with the team to reach. Since both Carrasco and Kluber are signed for five and six seasons respectively, they technically could near that level, but that would be a discussion for years from now. There is greater historical relevance of the group that we could see right now.
While there have been a ton of incredible pitchers to throw for the Indians, rarely have they been in the same rotation. Joss was the first great and while he had many incredible partners over a year or two, none stuck around long. Coveleski was the lone long timer from the 1920 championship team and Harder played much of his career before Feller, who played most of his career and his prime before Lemon who in turn hit his prime before Wynn. All of these rotations were good, but with the exception of a few years (1908, 1917, 1943 and 1954 stand out) rarely did everything come together for an immaculate one through five.
It wasn’t until the 1960’s of all periods in Indians history, when a group came together that made teams wonder whether or not they could even outscore the incredibly weak hitting Indians. From 1965 through 1968, McDowell, Tiant and Sonny Siebert lead rotations that held an ERA under 3.10 each season with an incredible 2.45 among the starting five in 1968. With all the Hall of Famers in the team’s history even with three who pitched for the team from 1949 through 1956, the Tribe’s rotation has never before or since seen a sustained era of success like that in the late 1960’s.
After that team was dismantled, the Indians saw limited success in the rotation in 1972 and 1989, but as an entire rotation, the numbers didn’t come near greatness until the 2013 team posted a 3.67 ERA and 8.34 K/9. That rotation featured a starting five of Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, Zach McAllister and Corey Kluber and in 2014, less Jimenez, Kazmir and McAllister, it was even better. The 2014 rotation’s K/9 of 9.3 was the highest in Indians history and their 3.34 was particularly impressive, the lowest since 1972.
The most recent edition again featured Kluber, Carrasco and Salazar, but added a full season of Trevor Bauer and partial season from Cody Anderson, raising the ERA of the five to 3.68 and lowering the K/9 to 9.13 while lowering the WHIP to 1.13, the lowest since the crazy 1968 season. In all, already this three year run has been the best since the 1960’s with each individual season being good enough to be considered the best since 1972.
What makes this particularly interesting is that the entire rotation is under control through 2018 (if you consider Josh Tomlin as part of the 2015 rotation, 2020 if you don’t) and they are all in or entering their prime years. The elder statesmen Kluber will be 30 in 2016 and has put together three straight ace quality seasons. The second man down, Carrasco, will be 28 and has had 1.5 great seasons and is considered by some to be a superior pitcher to Kluber. Salazar will be just 26 and is coming off his first full season while Cody Anderson had an incredible rookie season at the age of 24. There is still a question on who the final two pitchers will be, but it will run between Anderson, Bauer and Tomlin, all of whom are less guaranteed to succeed than the top three, but have still shown incredible talent at times. In all, the 2016 staff should be among the top two in the American League and the best of the current run of Indians rotations.
There are many aspects of this, only the first being how talented each pitcher is individually. Overall, there has been a trend towards pitching over the past few seasons and while it abated some in 2015, it will probably continue in the future unless a major change happens (like a rule change or expansion). Finally, there is the defense, possibly the biggest reason the Indians rotation will look better than ever in 2016. With Francisco Lindor getting a full year at short stop, a healthy Jason Kipnis at second and the top defender Mike Napoli at first, the infield defense should be at it’s best since at least 2001. While the outfield is questionable, largely because we don’t yet know who will be playing there, it should still be significantly better than 2015 just because they won’t be playing around with Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, Ryan Raburn, Mike Aviles or David Murphy. Essentially all of the new additions (Collin Cowgill and Rajai Davis in particular) and the promotions from 2015 (Lonnie Chisenhall and Abraham Almonte) are extreme improvements over the 2015 squad. In addition, there are always two of the best defensive catchers in the game in Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez.
As much as the pitching staff is reminiscent of the 1960’s, a problem could be that the lineup is as well. The teams of that era were never successful despite the pitching staff and that has to be a worry of the current squad. Run prevention is half of the game of baseball and the Indians will be among the best at that part of the game in 2016. If all things work out, this staff could be the best in modern Cleveland history, but unless they get the offense to back them, it could be like 1968 all over again. The good news is, with the rotation around until 2020 and plenty more quality starters coming up in the next few years (Michael Clevinger, Adam Plutko and Rob Kaminsky to name a few who could be up by 2018 or earlier), they should have plenty of time to figure out the whole offense thing.
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