The Hot Stove

This is now the second straight day without a Red Sox game, and I’m already wandering around aimlessly wondering what to do.
The Home-Run Derby was a nice distraction, but it was just that – a distraction.
Even the rumor mill in the majors has not been feeding us all this year, and this started last year. With the age of equality starting to reign in baseball, we may start seeing trades dwindle up into what they are in football – rare occurences.
Most of the happenings may be tied up in free agency now. While parity is exciting in so many ways, one detriment is the lack of trading fervor. There are a lot of teams who are trying to buy (and all 30, as always, trying to get top starting pitching) and a lot of teams unwilling to give up young talent unless it makes sense. The luxury tax coupled with the death knell (at least to the player’s union) of a salary cap is causing a lot of teams to start to turn inward and place higher emphasis on filling needs from within.
The hot stove may not be so hot anymore in July, and we may have to content ourselves with just wintertime for a hot stove. While there should still be a flurry of trades, most if it probably won’t happen until the last couple days before the deadline as teams try to decide if they’re in it or out of it.
However, this may not be the case. I did a quick check of notable trades from 2001-2005 that were done through July 15. What I saw was a trend. First, the names who were traded:
2006: Eddie Guardado, Jeff Weaver
2005: Paul Quantrill, Alex Cora, Bret Boone, Preston Wilson, Jay Payton, Joe Kennedy, Jay Witasick, Eric Byrnes, Chad Bradford
2004: None
2003: Roberto Alomar, Carl Everett, Curtis Leskanic, D’Angelo Jiminez, Ugueth Urbina, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Herges, Jeromy Burnitz, Armando Benitez (and one day later, Shannon Stewart was traded).
2002: Raul Mondesi, Jeff Weaver, Ted Lilly, Carlos Pena, Duaner Sanchez, Cliff Floyd, Carl Pavano, Juan Encarnacion, Ryan Dempster, Jason Bartlett, D’Angelo Jiminez
2001: Mark Wohlers, Brian Boehringer, Emil Brown.
So here’s what I’m seeing.
2001: A few fringe players.
2002: A lot of good players.
2003: A lot of average players.
2004: Nothing (similar to 2001)
2005: A lot of average players.
2006: A few good players (so far).
It makes me wonder if a lot of good players are going to be moved at the deadline. Bobby Abreu, Alfonso Soriano, and Aubrey Huff are the big rumblings, with the latter two almost certain to be traded. That would be some serious hot-stoving going on. In addition, there’s always some long-shot big name that seems to get moved.
Maybe this is a lot of bunk, but cut me some slack, I’m Sox deprived and I love that old rumor mill!
Here’s some predictions of mine (like they matter…):
Aubrey Huff: TO LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Alfonso Soriano: TO HOUSTON ASTROS
Bobby Abreu: STAYS
Greg Maddux: STAYS
Jason Schmidt: TO WHITE SOX
Yankees Acquire: CRAIG WILSON
And your predictions?