The Hunt for October

Hello Cougar Nation!   A tremendous and happy Friday to you all!

As for me, well, the Neilson blog ratings just came out last week.  And, I am happy to say that, thanks to you, I came out ranked as the 5^th most popular blogger on this here blog!

Because of this sudden rise in popularity for all things Khan, the Penguins decided to move me from my Khantucky Fried Thursday time slot to Friday.  So now, I get the honor of taking you into the weekend each week, every week, from now until eternity…..

Today, we take a quick peek at what figures to be THE month that defines the 2012 WSU Football season. So, if you want to check out what I have in store for you today, then read on, Jive Turkeys…

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Nation, my best friends at the Pac12 blog have been running a consistent feature on the most important game of the year for each team in the conference.  Today, in all probability, they will run a post on the most important game for our Cougs.

A few weeks back, I got all academic on the Nation, by giving you what I thought were the two most critical games for this still young WSU squad: BYU and Oregon State.  And if I was going to choose the game that I felt was the most important for the 2012 season, it would be none other than…..

So, at the risk of re-hashing—or dare I say plagiarizing my own work—let’s dabble into three likely scenarios for how the first six weeks of the season might play out:

Scenario A

Beat BYU, Beat Eastern, Beat UNLV, Beat Colorado, Lose to Oregon, Beat Oregon State (Record 5-1)

Scenario B

Beat either BYU or Oregon State, Beat Eastern, Beat UNLV, Beat Colorado, Lose to Oregon, (Record 4-2)

Scenario C

Lose to BYU, Beat Eastern, Beat UNLV, Beat Colorado, Lose to Oregon, Lose to Oregon State (Record 3-3)

Of course, the last dreaded scenario essentially would frame the 2012 Cougar Football season as a near equivalent to the 2011 campaign..And we know how that all turned out…

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One of the most amazing and telling statistics of the Paul Wulff era was his 1-16 record in the month of October.  And, if the Colorado game last year, wasn’t filled with Marquess Wilson miracles…

Well, we would have been 0-17.

And so, if we look at how it is that this season sets up, well, we need look no farther than our October slate of games.  Our opponents for that three game month?

Oct 6—Oregon State

Oct 13–Cal

Oct 20–BYE

Oct 27–Stanford

Of course, we all know by now that Oregon State figures to be a prime contender for the Pac12 North Doormat this year.  CAL, who is always a tough 6 to 8 win outfit even when they have mediocre play at quarterback (which they will have once again this year with Maynard), figures to have a front seven on defense that is loaded with NFL prospects. 

And Stanford?  Well, in addition to having a front seven that I believe to be the most physical and fierce in the conference, they figure to having a smash mouth attack on offense that sets up to be the EXACT of scheme that can keep our O off the field while completely POUNDING our young defense into submission.

So, all is lost, right?

Well, maybe not quite.

You see, due to scheduling quirks, the BIG GAME this year happens to be sandwiched right in the middle of our game against CAL and Stanford.  So, although the CAL game will be the first time that we face a real 3-4 defense in the 2012 season, we’ll be able to take a week off, get healthy, and watch a ton of film in preparation for a Stanford team that will be coming straight off a tough, physical, and emotional contest @CAL the week prior, and @Notre Dame the week before that.   Meaning, not only should we be prepared to run our offense against that killer 3-4, it could be that Stanford is beat up and really, really ready for a let-down that week.

Uh, maybe not…

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So, returning back to the 3 scenarios highlighted above.  Let’s say that we enter CAL and Stanford at 3-3.  Well, if we don’t win any of those games, we head into a tough November slate at 3-5, needing to win 3 of 4 just to become bowl eligible.  Moving onto Scenario B, if we’re 4-2 heading into CAL and Stanford and lose both of those games, we’re in a better position, needing two wins from Utah, UCLA, Arizona State, and Washington to become bowl eligible.

Of course, if we come in smoking hot at 5-1, achieving a Huddy against the Bay Area schools would put us at a fat and sassy 6-2, ranked in the top 20, and well positioned to become the 2012 version of the 2011 Baylor Bears.  And we know how that all turned out for them…..

“That’s one helluva defense you got there, coach!”

So, ultimately, Cougar Nation, if we want to take a look at “The Keys” to the 2012 season, we can really see how stinking important those swing games are against BYU and Oregon State: WE MUST WIN ONE OF THOSE TWO GAMES. 

And, while it could be that Arizona State, UCLA, and perhaps even Washington show themselves to be really ripe for the taking this year, here’s to thinking that bowl eligibility might even rest on gaining a Huddy (a split) with the Bay Area schools.

But just when you think that a 2-1 October record might be doable, think back a bit on our recent 1-16 fortunes in the month of October. And when you do that, you just might realize that for this year, the Hunt for October is truly on.

Enjoy your weekend. Go Cougs!