During the 2016 off-season, Cleveland Indians fans had dreams of the team putting together a prospect package and acquiring the likes of A.J. Pollock, Yasiel Puig or Marcell Ozuna. Entering the off-season, most agreed an outfield bat was the biggest of Cleveland’s needs. That need grew only more desperate when it was announced that Abraham Almonte would be suspended for 80 games and Michael Brantley would miss some time to begin the season due to shoulder surgery.
However, when the dust of the offseason settled, the Indians had only acquired Rajai Davis, Marlon Byrd and a mixed bag of AAAA type players (Joey Butler, Collin Cowgill, Robbie Grossman) to provide depth in the team’s outfield. While the acquisitions of Davis and Byrd gave some answers, the team was still without a true option in center field.
Between Lonnie Chisenhall, Byrd, Davis, and super-utility man Jose Ramirez, the Indians have four players whose best roles are as part-time corner outfielders. While Davis can play center in spurts, his defense isn’t anything special (career UZR/150 of 1.3 in CF), and his bat against righties is woeful (career wRC+ of 77 vs. RHP).
At first glance, it would appear Tyler Naquin could resolve the Tribe’s lack of a true center fielder. A rookie and a former first round pick, Naquin has played well in center so far in 2016 against mostly RHP’s, producing a 115 wRC+ in 25 games. However, the team has already indicated that Naquin is the odd man out when Brantley returns from the DL. Even if he was to stick around, his high k-rate (31.7%), low walk rate (3.2%) and hyper-inflated BABIP (.488) will result in a huge drop in production as his sample-size grows.
If it hasn’t become clear by now, the Indians don’t have any good options to man center field, especially when Michael Brantley returns. Once that happens, on most days, Brantley will play in left, Davis in center, while Byrd and Chisenhall platoon in right. Ideally, a Chisenhall/Byrd platoon would be good enough to allow for weak link in center field in Davis, but that scenario is unlikely. Chisenhall, even platooned, is only a league-average hitter (career 101 wRC+ vs RHP), while Byrd is 38 years old and has struggled so far this season, slashing .231/.287/.372.
If the Indians are going to be serious contenders in the American League, they will need more production at center field. Davis isn’t going to provide it, and even if there was a roster spot for Naquin, he can’t be relied upon to legitimately produce over the course of a season. But what are the team’s alternatives?
Unless the Indians spring a huge trade out of the blue, the immediate options don’t look very good. Perhaps the most likely scenario is that the Indians will wait until Abraham Almonte returns from his suspension, and hope he can repeat his .776 OPS performance in 51 games with the Tribe in 2015. Still, Almonte won’t be eligible to return from suspension until July. With that approach, the team would have to play around 50 more games with Davis in center field on most days, which would surely hurt them in the standings.
Entering the season, perhaps some thought or hoped top prospects Bradley Zimmer or Clint Frazier could end up in Cleveland and provide some offense in the outfield. Unfortunately, that will not be a possibility for at least a few more months, and even then, the chances are still remote that either prospect reaches Cleveland in 2016. Until Zimmer lowers his 31% k-rate, he will not be MLB ready. Meanwhile, Frazier has been stellar in Akron, but he is just 21 years old. For as impressive as he has been, the Indians aren’t likely to rush his development.
So what else could Cleveland do? If the Indians want to resolve the issue in the near-term, a trade is the only real possibility. Even then, there aren’t many obvious trade candidates. Most of the names rumored to be on the trading block aren’t center fielders. In the off-season, Marcell Ozuna was said to be available, but with his stellar play so far this season (.312/.358/.514), the Marlins won’t be moving him for less than a king’s ransom. The Phillies should be clear trade deadline sellers, and have a quality center fielder in Odubel Herrera, but like Ozuna, Herrera’s production at a young age mean Philadelphia would rather build around him than trade him. Another option could be Atlanta’s trade Ender Inciarte, given the state of the Braves’ rebuild.
While many center fielders don’t look to be on the trading block, if the team could trade for a quality right fielder, it would allow for an eventual platoon between Almonte, Naquin and Davis in CF that would be more tolerable. The right field market is a much more active, with names like Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Josh Reddick, Nick Markakis, and Jay Bruce all rumored to be available.
The Indians have the prospect currency to facilitate a major trade, but it all will come down to what players are available and how willing the Indians are to make such a deal. Fans also should remember that Cleveland’s front office is notorious for making under-the-radar moves that end up paying big dividends. Last season, the team found Almonte – could they make a similar move this season?
While it isn’t immediately clear how the Indians’ center field situation will be handled as the season progresses, it is clear that the current situation relies far too heavily on a 35 year-old Rajai Davis isn’t conducive to winning. If Cleveland wants to find themselves playing into October, they will have to be creative to find a solution rather than maintaining the status quo.
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