The Indians May Be Reluctant Traders This July

The trading season is upon us, or at least nearing, with just a little less than three weeks left to buy your loved ones that closer, starter or right handed power bat they have always wanted. Some joking aside, with so many teams in contention this year (essentially the entire American League could make an argument for one play-off spot or another), expect some major moves in the coming weeks and for the highest valued players (like Cincinnati’s Johnny Cueto and Philadelphia’s Jonathan Papelbon) to be sold for extremely high prices.

While Cleveland is one of those teams with a technical shot at a postseason berth, they may not be one of those willing to pay that extreme price. That being said, despite all the fan created internet rumors, the Indians also are unlikely sellers.

We’ve talked much about how the Indians are a generally young, cost controlled team that is stabilized for the long term thanks to team friendly contracts with all the pivotal players and it is because this leaves an opportunity for a lengthy World Series window, the Indians are unlikely to be big players in the trade market this year.

There are essentially three options for any team at this point in time in the year, those options particularly difficult to decide upon when you are middling. Trade prospects for pros, trade pros for prospects or blow the whole thing up. I don’t believe the Indians will blow the whole thing up, and will say why in an article coming out during the All-Star break, but the other two are real options.

Because the Indians are cost controlled and under control, there are a very limited number of trade candidates. If the Indians are sellers, that list could include Michael Bourn, Mike Aviles, Ryan Raburn, David Murphy, Brandon Moss and Marc Rzepczynski while the players on the block if they are buyers could be Tyler Holt, Tyler Naquin, Clint Frazier, Erik Gonzalez, Jesus Aguilar or pretty much anyone else in AA or AAA, depending on how deep they want to go.

While any of these players could be moved in individual trades, it would take multiple big ones to really consider the Indians buyers or sellers. The Indians have direct replacements in AAA (or on the DL) for all those listed in the sellers section and there is no one player the Indians could buy to fix all their problems. The second problem is that for all the expense they may garner, there is no one hitter available that is better than what they already have.

The chart above shows what Carlos Santana has done this season so far and his career numbers from the second half. If the Indians were to panic about the offense, the first place they would go would be to replace Santana as first baseman. Expected to be a middle of the lineup hitter, Terry Francona has moved Santana all over the lineup as he tries to figure out how to fix the slugger or at least hide him. Based on his career numbers, if the the Indians had put Santana on the trade block, he would be one of, if not the best power hitter available. For no cost in talent to the team, Santana in the second half could be a bigger gain for the Tribe than any other addition.

The primary place the Indians would be looking to add this offense would be center field. Whether he is benched, traded or DFA’d, Michael Bourn has been so bad that he hurts the Indians every time he is placed in the lineup. Unfortunately, his most used replacement, Mike Aviles, has also hurt the Indians by playing a position he is not fit for (-16.9 career UZR/150). Looking to add a player in the middle of the order, one name that has consistently popped up is Carlos Gomez of the Brewers.

Gomez was an All-Star and MVP candidate each of the last two seasons, but with just one year under control after this one and the Brewers already out of contention, he appears available. However, he has posted just a .274/.323/.451 line without his usual stolen base prowess (204 steals in 255 chances from 2007-14, but just 7 out of 13 in 2015) and Gold Glove defense (14.5 career UZR/150, -0.6 in 2015). This all has been worth a decent 1.5 WAR to this point in the year, but when compared to what Santana has done in the second half during his career, it isn’t that impressive. Assuming the Indians would have to pay a reverse Sabathia (or even more since he is an every day player and under contract for two seasons), someone like Gomez could cost them one Major League ready prospect and two or three high ceiling lower level players. That could be a huge price to pay for something they already have.

On the other side, the Indians are still close enough to a Wild Card spot (and have a four man rotation that would be devastating in any play-off series) that they will be unlikely to sell anything of any value. Sure, they would likely be willing to move Bourn or Swisher and might even be interested in offers for Lonnie Chisenhall or Aviles, but will be extremely hesitant to part with players who are producing right now, like Murphy and Raburn.

Even though probability states that Murphy and Raburn have to regress at some point to their normal career averages and that Santana will improve to his, there is no telling when this will happen. If the Indians were to attempt to contend, but still try to gain value by trading the team friendly contracts (and 2016 options), they could wind up with an even worse offensive situation than they are currently in. While Tylers Naquin or Holt could step in to fill Bourn’s cleats with equal or greater production, bringing up Jesus Aguilar (as much as we all love him) will not be able to match the career production of Murphburn at DH. A half way solution could be to deal Raburn and replace him with Aguilar, keeping Murphy as the full time starter, but Murphy has to be worth considerably more on the trade market.

The Indians have been burned before by giving up on players too early (see Jeremy Guthrie and Brandon Phillips) and they have also made some incredible deadline deals, bringing in Michael Brantley, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Santana on the current roster. With a solid track record in recent years, we should trust Chris Antonetti to make the right moves. Of course, the right move may be no moves at all.