The Los Angeles Lakers managed to hold onto their top-3 protected pick in this year’s draft, and will, in all likelihood, walk away from the draft in June with one of the two consensus best players in the draft: Brandon Ingram or Ben Simmons.
In the 2014 NBA Draft, the Milwaukee Bucks found themselves in a position very similar to the one the Lakers find themselves in this year. After Joel Embiid’s injuries watered down his draft stock, the two players widely considered 1A and 1B in that draft were Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker. The Cleveland Cavaliers rigged won the lottery, and subsequently had to make the difficult choice between the two young potential stars. But Milwaukee, sitting at the second draft slot, essentially had to wait out Cleveland’s pick, and then take whichever of the two they didn’t. The Cavs went with Wiggins, so the Bucks took Parker. Naturally, it likely wasn’t that overly simple, and anyone who claims the number two pick in these situations is better than number one are kidding themselves, but once the Lakers are on the clock with the second pick, there won’t be much need for deliberation. If Philadelphia goes with Ingram, the Lakers can take Simmons. If Philly takes Simmons, Ingram will suit up in Lakers colors next season.
What Los Angeles decides to do with the second pick will be crucial for the direction their franchise takes in what is now officially the post-Kobe Bryant era. While they have been a poor team transitioning for the last two seasons, Bryant’s shadow still overwhelmed the development of their young players, who will now be the priority and focus going forward.
D’Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, and Julius Randle are the current building blocks of this team, and next season should be spent putting those players (along with whoever they draft) in positions where the Lakers can see what they are going to be capable of as individuals, and what they are capable of together.
And that is where the real mystery lies for LA. In all likelihood, their pick will be whichever of Simmons or Ingram wasn’t taken by Philly, but who do they hope slides to their spot the most?
The Bucks claimed Parker was at the top of their board, which could just be because it wouldn’t be smart to to say you wished you got the other guy, but maybe they truly were happy to hear Wiggins’ name called first.
So which name might the Lakers be hoping goes unmentioned as Adam Silver announces the Sixers’ pick?
Simmons and Ingram have similarities, but also stark differences.
My fellow Lottery Mafia colleague Gabe Allen does a great job of describing the strengths and weaknesses of the two here, and while they are both talented forwards, they play in different ways.
Simmons came into the college season the consensus top talent in this year’s draft crop. His playmaking abilities for a 6-9 forward were (and are) off the charts, and he could essentially do it all, score, pass, and rebound. His playing style was compared to that of LeBron James. Simmons is athletic and agile, and devastating in transition. LSU struggled all season and didn’t make the NCAA Tournament, but Simmons put up impressive numbers, averaging 19.2 points, 11.9 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and a 30.0 PER.
But by no means is he a perfect prospect, which is why his gap at the top has closed considerably. He has very limited range as a shooter, and is simply not a good defender. His wingspan is no longer than his height, meaning he has short arms and limited range that hurts him on both ends of the court. And he has been criticized from LSU to back in Australia for his selfishness and inconsistent work ethic. The character issues are a concern, but in today’s NBA where spacing is such a priority, a poor shooter and defender isn’t an easy fit for a lot of teams.
Brandon Ingram, on the other hand, has seen a meteoric rise in his stock over the course of the season. Ingram fits the mold of the ideal forward of today much more than Simmons. He is the same height, but has a long 7-3 wingspan. Just as athletic as Simmons, Ingram adds to it by also being a strong outside shooter, his biggest advantage over Simmons. He isn’t as much of a creator, but still did well in isolation situations and was a more than willing passer. And while not a finished defensive package, his length and natural ability projects him to be a strong defender in the future.
The main knock on Ingram is his slim frame. His 196 lbs. spread throughout his 6-9 frame makes him very skinny, which brings the natural concern that he won’t be able to stand up against much more solid NBA players. He can play anywhere from 2-4, but his ability to handle big NBA forwards will be in question, especially at the start of his career.
Neither player, as is the case with most human beings, is perfect, and while I personally believe Ingram is the superior prospect, which player would fit best with the current Lakers?
The thought of pairing the playmaking abilities of Russell and Simmons together is tantalizing. Russell struggled early in the year but picked up his play down the stretch, and he is a solid outside shooter. Simmons is a player that needs the ball in his hand, but pairing him with one other creator shouldn’t be a problem for him. In fact, it could even make his transition easier, as he didn’t have the luxury of sharing the floor with any other playmakers at LSU. Put me down as someone who believes they would work very well together in Los Angeles. Where the fit isn’t as strong is when it comes to Julius Randle, another power forward who lacks outside range and isn’t a strong defender. Simmons and Randle on the court together would seriously limit the space the Lakers have to work with, and wouldn’t go very far in repairing the tragedy that is the Lakers’ defense. Simmons is also a much higher prospect and potential player than Randle, so his inability to fit with Randle shouldn’t necessarily be a major deterrent against taking him.
Ingram also fits with Russell. As a strong shooter, Russell could get him into the right positions so he can take advantage. And Ingram would also be a more natural fit with Randle since his range would give the Lakers the space they need to operate in the post (and on the outside).
Ingram’s style of play seems to make him a much better fit for almost any team, but both players are poised to make an impact on day one in the league.
The debate between the two will continue all the way until draft night, but regardless of which name is called first, the Lakers will be adding another player with star potential to their roster come June.
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