In our effort to keep Penn State fans abreast on conference expansion news, today we’ll look at the Big Ten’s future when it comes to expansion. Although the league officially is in a “no expansion” phase, unofficially Chicago offices are positioning themselves as carefully as every other conference is. The emergence as Missouri as the newest “free agent” available brings the Big Ten immediately into the spotlight. Missouri plays a key role in the Big Ten’s future alignment plans.
(If you haven’t read our “Good-bye, Big 12?” and “Good-bye, Big East?” overviews, check them out. They are still accurate despite the changes of the past few weeks.)
BIG or B16?
One look at the Big Ten’s new logo, and it’s impossible to think that one day the “1” and “G” won’t become a “16” if Jim Delany had his druthers. While it’s possible the league is truly happy at 12, the natural shift of conference alignment is towards consolidation. That’s not debatable. Maybe the Big Ten will stay at 12 for a decade, maybe two decades, but eventually, the Big Ten will grow again.
So what will it look like?
The main factors for expansion in the Big Ten are football brand quality, new TV markets, geographic proximity, and strong academics. Penn State fit all the criteria back in 1989. Nebraska also fit last summer (although their academics were notably an Achilles’ Heel). The Big Ten simply will not add a program that doesn’t have a very strong presence in most (if not all four) of these criteria.
The top two programs that fit for the Big Ten and aren’t locked into another strong conference are Notre Dame and Texas. Sure, Notre Dame’s academics aren’t upper echelon, and Texas’s geography isn’t quite midwest, but when you’re dealing with superpowers like them, you can deal with a fly or two in the ointment. Logistically speaking, there are enormous obstacles in the way of either team joining any conference. But the Irish and the Longhorns keep mentioning that they could see themselves in the same conference in the future. It ain’t gonna be the Big 12. It ain’t gonna be the SEC. The ACC has just two spots left, and after that, only the Big Ten has an opening left on its dance card.
If you’re going to 16…
Who are the Big Ten’s other top expansion targets? There are surprisingly few.
Oklahoma is a mega-power in football, but they sorely lack in the other criteria areas. Plus, they are conjoined at the hip with Oklahoma State. Even if the Big Ten would reach for another academic lightweight (like they did with the Cornhuskers), they would never take the Cowboys as well. Cross the Sooners off your list.
A few ACC names get tossed around frequently—Maryland, Virginia, and I’ve even heard of a UNC/Duke combo. With the ACC’s savvy move to steal solid commodities Syracuse and Pittsburgh from the Big East, the prospect of them losing any of those schools seems less and less likely. The ACC is unlikely to be the hunted; they aren’t dropping to the back of the pack anytime soon.
The SEC is also off-limits, not just because of its stability and strength, but because it has few schools that fit geographically or academically. New markets and great football? Heck yes. But the SEC is not going to be poached.
When you consider the Big East’s remnants (minus Pittsburgh and Syracuse, who were considered potential Big Ten expansion candidates), only one school has any appeal for the Big Ten. Rutgers. Rutgers fits all of the Big Ten’s criteria except for powerhouse football.
Rutgers is often dismissed from candidacy for the Big Ten because it “can’t deliver” the NYC market for the Big Ten. What’s overlooked is that Rutgers is the flagship state school for New Jersey, home to about 9 million people. Even if New Jersey were located in South Timbuktu, 9 million potential viewers isn’t chump change for the Big Ten Network. Now consider that it’s on the doorstep to America’s largest city and not in South Timbuktu, and you’re making headway into a market.
To speculate further on the possibility of Rutgers, if you were dreaming of 16 and Notre Dame and Texas were two of your four expansion targets, would you really want any more top-shelf competition? Wouldn’t a mediocre football program that pristinely meets all other criteria—as the State University of New Jersey does—be the perfect complement?
The last may be first
If the Big Ten could achieve their dream coup, who then would be team number 16? The best candidate for team 16 in this scenario is Missouri. It’s a border state for Illinois, Iowa, and Nebraska (homes of four current Big Ten schools), it’s academically strong, and it’s in a somewhat-new and definitely-strong TV market. Its football isn’t amazing, but it’s far above Rutgers (and Indiana and Minnesota, for that matter). By itself, Missouri isn’t a sexy addition, but in a quartet with Texas, Notre Dame, and Rutgers, Missouri stands as a rock solid move for the league.
Ironically, the last best team for the Big Ten is the team whose Facebook status is currently “Single,” and all of the Tigers’ friends think she’d look great on the SEC’s arm. If she gets hitched to the SEC, it’s probably ‘til death do them part. And that means the Big Ten has some choices to make.
Do you take your 16th team as your 13th team, trusting that you’ll be able to finagle the rest of your dream team? Do you let Missouri go as you wait for the more integral pieces to fall into place, knowing that you’ll need to settle for a less excellent school in its stead?
The Big Ten would be smart to take Mizzou. Would Mizzou choose the Big Ten?
Missouri wanted an invite to the Big Ten last year and was coldly rebuffed. I doubt that their pride is so great that they’d turn down an invitation if given one now, even with an SEC offer awaiting them. SEC football fans might scoff at the prospect of being stood up by the Tigers, but the Big Ten has something to offer a school like Missouri that the SEC doesn’t—academic prestige and research dollars. Again, football is just one criterion for expansion.
If you’re wondering what’s next for Big Ten expansion, I suggest you follow the situation with Missouri very, very closely. If Missouri casually walks into the SEC without even a wistful goodbye from the Big Ten, then the Big Ten might be truly sitting on the sidelines of the expansion derby. But if you start to hear murmurings of Mizzou-to-the-B1G, don’t forget about the bigger fish that the Big Ten would like to fry on their way to 16. The first step might be the Missouri Compromise.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
