Indy was way better on third down this year
Teams which are strong on first and second down, but weak on third down, will tend to improve the following year. Teams which are weak on first and second down, but strong on third down, will tend to decline the following year.
At the end of each season, we get questions asking which teams are in line for possible improvement or decline because of this effect, so I figured I would run the tables for you all as part of Stat of the Day. I am running five teams per list, except the first list which is seven teams because there’s a much bigger gap between the seventh and eighth team than between the fifth and sixth team.
Obviously, there may be cases where certain players or teams really are better in third-down situations. Perhaps Aaron Rodgers is one of these players, as the Packers were much better on third down than they were overall for the second straight season.
On the other hand, you have the case of the Indianapolis Colts. This is the second straight year where the Colts were better on third down on both offense and defense. However, that’s just a fluke, and the Colts don’t have a special ability to resist the third-down rebound effect. In 2006 and 2007, the opposite was true, and the Colts were worse on third down on both offense and defense.
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