(Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
In 2016 the St. Louis Cardinals went 100-62 and had the best record in all of baseball. The biggest strength and most consistent aspect of their team was the pitching. They finished the year with the 6th best pitching fWar at 21.2 and they did this without their staff ace Adam Wainwright, who was out for most of the season with an Achilles injury. Even with the loss of John Lackey to free agency and Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery, the rotation still looks to repeat their success from last year. When people mention the best rotations in baseball you tend to hear the common names such as the Giants, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, and Nationals. While all of these teams have plenty of talent and deserve to be talked about, the Cardinals have the pitchers to match most of these teams on any given night. No one is talking about the Cardinals’ rotation, but it is about time people started to notice.
The St. Louis Cardinals have one of the deepest rotations in all of baseball. Even with Lance Lynn out for the year due to Tommy John Surgery, the rotation is still strong. The projected starting rotation looks like this:
- Adam Wainwright
- Carlos Martinez
- Mike Leake
- Michael Wacha
- Jaime Garcia
Adam Wainwright looks to be the staff ace once again for the Cardinals. He is returning from an Achilles injury that forced him to miss most of last season. Prior to the injury, Adam had pitched 25 innings and had recorded a 1.61 ERA and 2.13 FIP in 4 starts. Fortunately, the injury he suffered did not affect his arm and the time off from the injury could be seen as rest for an arm that pitched nearly 650 innings in the 3 years prior. Wainwright will feature a low-90s fastball with a cutter that he has developed into a plus pitch the past few years and you can not forget one of the best curveballs in the MLB. Expecting Wainwright to be dominant may be too optimistic, but you can pencil him in for 200 innings if healthy, around 180 strikeouts, and a low-to-mid 3 ERA.
Carlos Martinez is the ace in waiting for the Cardinals. He took that mantle last year when Adam Wainwright went down and he pitched beautifully. He started 29 games and recorded a 3.01 ERA that was good for 10th in the National League to go along with 184 strikeouts before being shut down for the year in September with a shoulder strain. Martinez has arsenal that would make any pitcher jealous. He has a fastball that tops out at 100 mph and moves, making it a real struggle to hit even when he makes a mistake. Carlos also features a change-up that ranges from 79-90 mph and a cutter that ranges from 77-89 mph. He worked on a curveball in the past, but it is used sparingly and is almost a non factor at this point. This repertoire of pitches with the speed and movement leaves hitters having no idea where the ball will end up while giving them almost no time to react. While the injury may be cause for concern, the 24-year-old has an arsenal and the look to take the extra step into the upper echelon of starting pitchers.
Mike Leake is someone Cardinals’ fans are accustomed too. Leake pitched for the Cincinnati Reds for 5 years before being traded to the San Francisco Giants at the trading deadline last year. While Leake is not a big name acquisition that some fans were expecting this offseason, he is a very solid middle of the rotation starter who will provide stability and consistency to the rotation. The past three years he has averaged nearly 200 innings and has had an era around 3.70. He does not have any pitch that will blow by a batter or fool one consistently, but they are all at least average. Mike Leake is known to some people as the most boring pitcher in baseball, but that isn’t a bad thing. He is remarkably consistent and someone who can even help himself out with his bat, and that is not something that you can say about most pitchers. Expect Mike Leake to be the perfect middle of the rotation guy and be a steady source of innings for the Cardinals.
Everyone knows that Michael Wacha has the potential to be one of the very best pitchers in baseball, as evidenced by his magnificent playoff run in 2013 and his selection to the All-Star Game last year. The only problem that he has is his consistency. In 2016 Wacha stayed healthy throughout the entire year and had good numbers. He had 17 wins with a 3.38 ERA and a 3.87 FIP. These numbers could have been even better if he didn’t implode in the month of September. In that month Wacha had a reduced strikeout rate, a walk rate that jumped to 16.1%, and he let up hard contact that was among the worst 20 pitchers in baseball. Put all of those numbers together and you have a pitcher that struggled mightily. It is unknown whether these inflation in numbers was due to fatigue, injury, or just ineffectiveness, but I would say that you can attribute it to fatigue due to pitching 80 more innings than he had at any point in his Major League career. With a rested arm, a slight cutback in innings, and a repertoire that includes one of the best change-up in baseball, I would expect Michael Wacha to be one of the best pitchers the rotation and among the top pitchers in baseball.
Jaime Garcia is an extremely effective pitcher when healthy. Last year over 20 starts Jaime posted 10 wins, a 2.43 ERA and a 3.00 FIP. His ERA and FIP were career bests for him, but he only pitched 129 innings in 20 games. Jaime has had an injury filled career that has involved Tommy John surgery, rotator cuff surgery, and even thoracic outlet surgery. Even with all of these injuries, his arm seems to not be as affected because of his above average arsenal. He sports five pitches that are above average including a devastating slider that struck out 45 batters last year. If Jaime can stay healthy and be anywhere close to the guy he was last year, then you are looking at a pitcher whose has the potential to be a top of the rotation guy.
When it comes to pitchers you can never have too many of them. With the injuries that are bound to happen and the days where you might have to skip a start of one of the young arms, it is important to have replacements ready. The Cardinals have those in Tyler Lyons and Marco Gonzalez. Both Lyons and Gonzalez have experience in the big leagues and Tyler will be in the bullpen to start the season. Both of these lefties will be the most likely candidates to make an emergency start with Tyler Lyons getting the first one since he is already in the bullpen. Tyler Lyons won’t blow anyone away but he locates well and has a solid strikeout-to-walk ratio that would be perfect for the occasional spot start. Marco Gonzalez will start the season at AAA Memphis and he will start there to develop his arm and his pitches. Gonzalez is projected to be in the rotation in the next few years, but don’t be surprised to see the Cardinals bring him up for a few starts in the middle of summer or later in the season when they may have to skip starts to preserve innings or if an injury occurs.
If everyone in the Cardinals’ rotation pitches to their capabilities, then you are looking at a rotation with two top flight pitchers (Wainwright and Martinez), two that any team would want as a number two or three (Wacha and Garcia), and one who is a steady pitcher who is a solid 3 or 4 guy that will eat a lot of innings (Leake). The key will be the health of these pitchers. With Wainwright, Martinez, Wacha, and Garcia all experiencing problems the past few years, one wouldn’t be far off to say that the injury bug could rear its head and take away a lot of starts from these 4. Even with that concern I think that the arms will be taken care off and this rotation will be one of the very best in baseball like they were last year.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
