One of the things I heard in the aftermath of Friday night’s failure by Rajon Rondo to get a potential game-winning shot off was that it was proof he’s not a “max guy.” In fact, the question of whether he’s a “max guy” has become the center of most discussions about his future.
The “max guy,” the argument goes, is a scorer. He’s the go-to guy. And MVP candidate.
LeBron’s a “max guy.”
Durant’s a “max guy.”
Chris Paul. Carmelo Anthony. James Harden.
On the surface, that makes sense. In a vacuum, the notion that you reserve the maximum allowable amount of money you can spend on someone for an MVP-caliber type player seems solid.
Except that’s not business in the NBA. It’s not reality. The sports talk radio world of randomly assigning value and meaning to a player and a phrase doesn’t apply to the actual negotiation of a contract and what a player is actually worth. There are a lot of factors used by both sides to determine a player’s worth and what they’re willing to pay.
On Court Performance
This is obviously what it’s all about. You have to perform on the court to earn your money. This is also the most belabored argument when it comes to Rondo, so I’ll keep this part simple.
Rondo currently leads the NBA in points created by assist, with 28.1 per game. When you combine that with is 10.1 points per game average, that means Rondo’s directly responsible for 38.2 points per game.
When you compare that to the league’s scoring leaders, he’s about five points behind LeBron (the NBA’s scoring leader at 27.8 ppg and 15.6 points created by the assist for 43.4 total). He’s about six points behind James Harden (second in the NBA in scoring at 26.2 ppg and 18.6 points created by the assist for 44.8 total).
So the argument that he doesn’t have the same offensive impact as the league’s best isn’t entirely accurate. Rondo is not far behind the best of the best, even though he’s not directly doing the scoring. Some would argue he’s dependent on others to do the scoring, but you can easily argue that he’s also putting guys in position to make their shots. Regardless of where you fall in that argument, Rondo’s consistently proven that with Hall of Fame teammates or not, he can control the tempo of a game and generate offense through his teammates.
What do his contemporary’s make?
A look at some recent signings will give a team a good idea of what players at this position are getting. I think these three examples will set a good bar for us here:
- Kemba Walker just signed a four-year, $48 million extension, an average of $12 million a year.
- Ricky Rubio just signed a four-year, $55 million extension, an average of $13.75 million a year.
- Eric Bledsoe signed a five-year, $70 million contract, an average of $14 million a year.
We all may have different values for Rondo in our head, but if you’re looking a these numbers, I think it’s clear that the going rate for a good point guard in the NBA right now is somewhere around $14 million a year. If you think Rondo is a good point guard, this is probably the low-end of our value spectrum for Rondo.
What to the best at his position make?
The best of the best set tone. So here are some of the best point guards in the NBA and their salaries.
- Derrick Rose is making $18.9 million this season.
- Chris Paul is making $20 million this season.
- Stephen Curry is making $10.6 million this season.
- Russell Westbrook is making $15.7 million this season
Curry is obviously the best bargain in the league right now, and the Warriors are lucky to have locked him up back when his ankles were an issue. The Paul/Rose numbers are the high-end of the spectrum here. If you are of the opinion that Rondo is in this mix of point guards, then somewhere around $18-20 million is the ceiling.
What does he currently make?
Rondo’s current salary is $12.9 million. That accounts for approximately 20% of the salary cap and 17% of the Celtics overall payroll.
He’s not paid as much as other guys at his position, which means he’s due for a raise when he hits the open market.
What’s the market for him, and what will he be offered?
Here’s where things start to get interesting. If we can accept that Rondo should be paid at least what the Ricky Rubio’s of the NBA are making, then we’re setting the floor at $14 million per year, with annual raises beyond that.
Rondo, we know, is an unrestricted free agent. It’s hard to say how many teams will be lining up for Rondo, but it’s a sure bet that at least the LA Lakers will be in the mix, and they’ll have the money to spend. Assuming at least a couple of other teams come calling, there’s no doubt there will be some bidding. Brian Robb did a fantastic job crunching the numbers other teams can offer for Boston.com.
Before we get to that, for those of you who are not aware of the inner-workings of the collective bargaining agreement, Rondo has to become a free agent so a mechanism can be activated which allows the Celtics to offer more money to Rondo than other teams can offer.
So, with that said, the most another team can offer Rondo is 4 years, $79.66 million. That’s an average of $19 million a year.
That’s a lot of money, and that’s where some people say “thanks, but no thanks.” But if Danny Ainge is as big a fan of Rondo as he says he is, then he’s going to have to make a choice.
To lure a free agent, other teams are going to have to overpay a little to make it worth the free agent’s while. If the floor is $14 million a year for Rondo, then other teams will have to go above that to lure him away from Boston. If teams think his initial value is higher than $14 million, then a $19 million a year offer is not out of the question.
Can the team afford the salary and still upgrade elsewhere?
The Celtics, for their part, can offer 5 years, $107.4 million. The total value includes the extra year and a 7.5% per year raise as opposed to the maximum 4.5% other teams can offer. The maximum the Celtics offer equals an average of $21.4 million per year. Here’s how it breaks down (from the Boston.com piece)
- 2015-16: $18.68 million
- 2016-17: $20.081 million
- 2017-18: $21.48 million
- 2018-19: $22.88 million
- 2019-20: $24.28 million
So can they afford it? Yes, the Celtics can ultimately afford this contract, and a big reason why is the new television deal that will escalate the salary cap to approximately $92 million in 2016-17. I tackled this topic last month
It’s hard to know what the Celtics will look like next season. For all we know Rondo could be traded at the deadline. But we have to make assumption for an exercise like this. So we can assume, Avery Bradley, Evan Turner, Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger, Tyler Zeller, and James Young will be back next season. Let’s also throw Gerald Wallace in the mix and assume he’s un-tradeable. That all adds up to $33,340,937 in salary. The estimated salary cap is $66.5 million, leaving about $33.2 million in space and seven players on the roster. Jeff Green can opt out, but let’s assume he doesn’t. Add $9.2 million and that leaves about $24 million. Remove a Rondo max contract of $18.68 million, and the Celtics are left with about $5.3 million in cap space. The Celtics will also have two draft picks, their own and the Clippers pick. If they keep those picks, we can assume some combination of salaries similar to Smart and Young. We can round that to about $5 million and say the Celtics will have almost no cap space and 12 players on the roster if we count the two as-yet-unnamed rookies.
That obviously leaves no room to sign someone outright, so the Celtics will have to get creative in creating more space. One way they can do it is by using the stretch provision to waive Wallace and spread the remaining salary over twice the remaining years of his deal plus one year. Since it’d be the last year of his deal, the Celtics can waive Wallace next summer, and put cap holds of $3,368,618 for the following 3 seasons. That would clear $6.7 million in space, giving the C’s $7 million in total space. That’s better, but not great. That doesn’t include the possibility of a trade, but I’m not going down that road here.
Note: I did not include Phil Pressey or Vitor Faverani in this analysis for next season. They are under contract, but at a combined non-guaranteed sum of just over $3 million. The Celtics could include them, waive Wallace, and have 12 players under contract and just about $4 million in cap space.
I think Green is opting out of his deal. With a few creative moves, the Celtics could have $17 million in cap space next year, and those are just the creative moves I can think of. Ainge and the Celtics have a team of much smarter guys who’ve already probably got a dozen contingency plans and their impact.
Back to the “max guy” concept.
You can see there are a lot of factors that go into determining a guy’s value. You can throw out tired old line that “Rondo’s not a max” guy if you want, but the NBA’s finances tell a different story. The marketplace sets the value, not a tweet or some talking head. In a world where really good NBA point guards can expect to make $15 or $16 million dollars, a really good NBA point guard who is headed into free agency can expect to make even more than that. A contract that starts at $18 million per year is not outrageous for Rajon Rondo. And then, when the salary cap explodes in two years, Rondo’s new contract will fall right in line with this one.
Remember when I said his current deal takes up about 20% of the salary cap? He new one would account for 21% in two years. So percentage-wise, four of the five years of Rondo’s deal will essentially be equal to this one.
Throw out the antiquated notions of what a “max guy” is or isn’t and look at the big picture of what’s happening here. When you take the entirety of the situation into account… look at the Celtics situation and the league as a whole… and you throw out the blather, you’ll see that the “max guy” notion is a misguided, short-sighted myth.
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