The NBA Finals X-Factor: Guard Play

You know the storylines.

Good vs. Evil.

Middle America vs. Big time glam.

Two young trifectas striving to favorably influence the answer to the question, “Who cements their first stamp on a potential dynasty?”

The pressure on the Heat, and the hot seat under Spoelstra’s tuchus.

The pressure on OKC’s youngins, who’ve never been this far, who’ve never tasted a bitter NBA Finals defeat, a defeat that many teams before them have had to endure to materialize the ability to win it all.

And finally, LeBron vs. Durant.  LeBron won the regular season MVP, but he’d trade all three of his Maurice Podoloff’s in order to win his last game of the season for the first time in his NBA career.  He’ll be harked on all off-season (and until he finally wins one) if his team flames out, and if Durant indeed does grab his first ring before LeBron, it might vault KD into a Jordan-esque ferocity and drive that might box out LeBron, keeping him in the playpen of one, the greatest player ever, never to win a title.

And Durant?  It’s been popular to say that if he wills his OKC team to win this year, a year when “everything seemed to come together,” then they’ll be greeted by Mr. O’Brien’s hardware year after following year, for the powerhouse that is he and Westbrook and Harden will only mature with time.

Now, all these media-bursting, lowest common denominator, emotion-wrenching stories are mighty fine, but let’s get down to what you sports junkies really want most:

Good, ol’ fashioned analysis.

Because after scouring the match-ups, there seems to be an obvious and glaring weakness that will swing these Finals into the Oklahoma City Thunder’s favor, and potentially quite handily at that.

It’s Miami’s backcourt attempting to put bodies on OKC’s guards.

In the Eastern Conference Finals, Wade had to guard either Ray Ray with no ankles or Rajon “My confidence applies to everything but jump-shots” Rondo, either trailing a snail or playing five feet off, respectively.  He didn’t have to do anything on defense, and it looked like his offensive prowess still suffered.  How will he have enough energy to get up and down the court if he actually has to play defense?

And unless, for some reason, he was trying to save himself against Boston (which would make almost no competitive sense whatsoever), there’s no way he’ll be able to guard Westbrook, maybe the fastest guy in the NBA, or Harden, maybe the sharpest crossover in the NBA.  Oh, and by the way, they both have confidence in their jump-shots.

And LeBron can’t step up and guard every single player that gets hot on OKC like he could do in the Boston series, because OKC’s gonna have three players on the floor at crunch time that could each explode for 30 in any given game.  He’s gotta stay on Durant.

What was that?  Battier’s gonna shade Durant?  No way.  It’s not a slight against Battier, either.  It’s just that nobody in this stratosphere or the next can guard Durant except James.

And Chalmers is in such a dirty doghouse with his Heat teammates (they were all doggin’ him throughout the ECF), that I don’t trust him one bit in trying to slow down Russell or J. Harden.  A “sometimes you notice him on the floor, most of the time you just… well, don’t” player won’t force either of those two into taking crappy, off-balance jumpers.  They’d have to implode themselves against the likes of a Chalmers.

Peeping the other match-ups, Bosh and Ibaka will equally grind each other out, with Bosh’s offense and Ibaka’s defense seeming like a wash, and Kendrick vs. Whatever Center Spoelstra Decides to Start Coin Flip Anyone? seems to fall into Perkins’ slight favor.

I can’t find a match-up that favors Miami, unless, that is, LeBron Does Game 6 twice, adds an insane triple double (insinuating that his supporting cast actually shows up) plus a Wade explosion to boot.

I just don’t see that happening.  OKC can win with Durant doing Durant things.  The Heat win if LeBron becomes the player we all urge him to be, considering all his gifts and talents and amazing ability:

And that’s perfect.

I’d just rather bet on a great Durant than a perfect LeBron.

OKC in six.