The Next Bartolo Colon

From the likes of Wade Miller and Kyle Snyder to Bartolo Colon the Red Sox have often found value, or potential value in signing a veteran pitcher looking to right the ship after injury or at the end of their line to a one year deal and have them fill spots at the back of the rotation.
That type of insurance policy combined with an influx of youth at the tail end of your rotation has been invaluable in recent years where the Red Sox have needed their fair share of spot starts. I can remember more Julian Tavarez starts than I care to!
While the top of the rotation certainly is full of horses (Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka) and Wakefield and the young guns (Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson) provide a solid tail, injury is unpredictable. The 2008 New York Yankees are a great proof to the theorem that you can’t have enough starting pitching.
If you dance a little too close to the hot stove this winter, you are likely to get burned by rumors of AJ Burnett or Derek Lowe coming to the Red Sox. Now I am not saying that there is no smoke at all there, but interest in a free agent pitcher of that caliber (3+ years, $12 million plus per) is likely dependent on shipping some of the excess youth in the system off to Texas for a young catcher.
With rumors persisting regarding Tim Wakefield’s health and *gasp* possible retirement (remember, we are in the silly season), I fully expect the Red Sox to be looking for a few of those “Bartolo Colons” to fill a short term need in the one year, sub $5 million dollar contract range (with incentives of course to make it feel bigger).
So who could be on that list?
Paul Byrd (37 years old, 2008 stats: 11-12, 4.60 ERA, 30 games started, type B)
Paul Byrd was certainly a useful addition to the club down the stretch, but I don’t see the Red Sox front office clamoring for his return. The supplemental pick they get for him signing elsewhere holds more value than he does.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 1
Bartolo Colon (35, 4-2, 3.92, 7)
The big guy showed some promise at times this season. But his voluntary leave of absence instead of entertaining thoughts of staying on the post-season roster as a long man leave doubts in my mind that Bartolo has any passion for the game left.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 1
Freddy Garcia (32, 1-1, 4.20, 3)
Garcia has been tied to the Red Sox in the rumor mill a few times over the years. I think he’ll get priced out of the tier the Red Sox would be looking for in this role.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 2
Tom Glavine (42, 2-4, 5.54, 13)
Tommy Glavine isn’t coming off a particularly good return to Atlanta in 2008. At 42, he has to be considering retirement. At the same time, watching a 46 year old, left handed, off speed specialist in Jamie Moyer make his run at a championship in style may give him a little more motivation to come home to MA.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 4
John Smoltz (41, 3-2, 2.57, 5, B)
It’s not clear that Smoltz can rebound from recent labrum surgery to pitch this year, but a 2nd half of the season run as a starter or reliever is possible. With his track record to perform in big spots, I would put him on the same pedestal for late season help that I would Curt Schilling.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 3
Greg Maddux (42, 8-13, 4.22, 33, B)
While he still started 33 games last year, his best stuff is far behind him. I don’t see this as a fit in any way.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 1
Mike Hampton (36, 3-4, 4.85, 13)
Hampton will likely end up back with the Braves and likely back on the DL after a few starts.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 1
Livan Hernandez (33, 13-11, 6.05, 31)
Is he really only 33? Man, I would have guessed closer to 40. He fits the contract parameters as thats bullseye to his 2008 contract. But he really looked bad for most of 2008.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 2
Orlando Hernandez (41, n/a)
An El Duque sighting in Boston? I don’t think so.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 1
Randy Johnson (45, 11-10, 3.91, 30, B)
I think he’d be an interesting person to explore a one year deal with if there was a need for a full time body at the 5th position. But I don’t know that Randy + Boston = Happy Randy.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 1
Carl Pavano (32, 4-2, 5.77, 7)
If for nothing else than to stick it to the Yankees, it would be a fun story. He does fit the bill of someone that needs to create some value on the market for himself. But I think a small market team looking for a full time guy is a more likely scenario.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 2
Mark Prior (28, n/a)
Likely to end up back in SD on a minor league contract. Would you give him a major league deal for $1 mm and see what happened? I could think of more frivolous ways to blow a million on the Red Sox roster.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 2.5
Curt Schilling (42, n/a)
I think Curt’s retired. That said, if the right team came calling in June, I also think he would listen (unless it were the Yankees).
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 3
Pedro Martinez (37, 5-6, 5.61, 20)
I saved Petey for last because I think it makes sense for the Red Sox, Pedro, the fans, and for the greater good of universal karma. Throw in Pedro retiring in a Red Sox uniform and the number 45 on the facade and make it happen.
Likelihood of signing a one year, sub $5 million deal with Boston (scale 1-10): 4
While none of these options are likely to result in a stud that rises as an ace or even a reliable 30+ game starter, I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of these names don a Red Sox jersey at some point in the 2009 season.