The next obvious move

The Twins and Dodgers appear to have reached an impasse in their discussions revolving around a Brian Dozier trade, sending him to Los Angeles and prospect package back to Minnesota. One may be led to believe that the Twins are hung up entirely on this deal, waiting to do anything else until after the Dozier situation is resolved. That likely isn’t the case, as Minnesota has made a series of minor moves, including filling in the coaching staff and signing some minor league players, all while the new front office gets its bearings as a cohesive unit.

I still believe logic dictates that Brian Dozier MUST be traded this offseason. There are two reasons for this: 1) Dozier is at the peak of his value, and 2) his contract will have expired by the time the Twins are competitive again. Any major transaction from this point forward will probably be done with those same two factors in mind, and right now, there is only one other player that would fit those criteria. Ervin Santana.

Santana may not be as beloved among the Twins fan base, but there would certainly be a broader market for his services, and should he continue apace his Twins career, he offers substantial value to an acquiring team. The arguments against his being traded are also more readily apparent for Twins fans. While the Twins have ample offense, even if Dozier leaves, they haven’t proven their ability to pitch, aside from Santana. It would be even tougher to stomach a rotation without Santana than a lineup without Dozier.

That said, the Twins aren’t winning with Santana this year, and they Twins aren’t winning with him in 2018 either. This is going to be a rough year, but Minnesota can ensure that 2019 is much brighter by bringing high value prospects in house. Santana’s market would be robust enough in the face a weak pitching free agent class to foment a bidding war, where there is not one with Dozier. Compared to their value at other points in their career, it’s possible that Santana’s value is relatively higher than Dozier’s right now. That is to say, there will be no better time to find a trade partner for Santana than there is right now.

Also inherent within the risk of holding on to Santana is the threat of injury. Santana, a pitcher in his mid-30s runs a higher risk of injury. What would be worse for Twins fans, a Santana trade, or no trade, but a UCL injury that sidelines him for a year and a half, with nothing to show for it for the Twins? If that happens, the Twins have done nothing in 2017, and wouldn’t have set themselves up for success down the road, either. His contract is good, his health and recent track record are favorable. The Twins have so little pitching that there will be some discomfort in moving Santana, but his absence would not be the difference between playoffs and not. The threat for Santana’s value to tumble significantly and rapidly put the onus on the Twins to trade him as soon as they can, so they can parlay his value into actual success.