According to the Tampa Bay Lightning’s director of amateur scouting, Al Murray, there are not any “A+” prospects in this years draft. But, Murray believes that there are five to ten “A” or “A-” players available.
That being said, with the third overall pick, Tampa Bay will be selecting a very special player in the June 30 draft.
This is the second in a series of scouting reports on the top choices in this year’s NHL entry level draft. We look to the prospect guru’s to introduce you to the next Tampa Bay Lightning draft pick.
Today we focus on talented 17 year old forward Nathan MacKinnon.
Al Murray, via TampaBayLightning.com:
“He’s a pretty interesting guy. I think if you talk to him he says he’s more of a power forward who has skill, but to a lot of other people, he’s a highly-skilled forward who plays with a lot of power. It’s a nice combination to have. His skating is elite. He’s a durable guy and he’s been a terrific player and I really don’t know what more to say. He can play the game any way you want him to play it.”
Caveat: “His hockey sense is maybe a notch down from Drouin, but not far. His competitiveness too has maybe given him a little bit of trouble because he’s capable of taking on people one-on-one, but sometimes it leads to a train wreck because he winds up in a lot of collisions where he’s taken some hits.”
Alex Muscat, JuniorHockey.com, LightningShout:
“The comparisons between Halifax Mooseheads’ forward Nathan MacKinnon and NHL superstar Sidney Crosby are very similar. Both are from Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia, both attended the Minnesota-based Shattuck-St. Mary’s Academy and both were taken first overall in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League Draft.
In his first two seasons, MacKinnon hasn’t disappointed. In his first year in the “Q”, he collected 78 points (31 goals, 47 assists) in 58 games and this past season he racked up 75 points (32 goals, 43 assists) in only 44 games. MacKinnon’s draft stock took a bit of a hit after his performance at the 2013 World Junior Championships where he registered only one assist, but his play in Ufa shouldn’t be questioned, as he played on the third and fourth lines.
MacKinnon has the makings of an NHL star. He is great at handling the puck and has the ability to create highlight reel plays. His physical play is also underrated. The team who selects him will have a special player on their hands.
At around this time last year, MacKinnon and Seth Jones were projected as the first two picks in the 2013 NHL Draft. With the emergence of MacKinnon’s Moosehead teammate Jonathan Drouin, it is possible that Drouin could be one of the first two picks taken. If that is the case and MacKinnon is still available when the Tampa Bay Lightning is on the clock, they should take him in a New York minute. Imagine the possibility of MacKinnon and Steven Stamkos sharing the ice together. Get ready to dream, Lightning fans.”
Corey Pronman, Hockey Prospectus:
“MacKinnon is a simply fantastic prospect who has all the tools a GM would want in a high draft choice. His body and skills are advanced, relative to the fact he is a tad over two weeks away from being bumped to the 2014 NHL Entry Draft. MacKinnon is an elite skater, and possibly a generational one, easily the best in this draft class. He has an unbelievable first few steps, and he generates a ridiculous amount of power from his legs. When he gets in full flight, it is very hard to stop him (in fact, I once saw an opposing QMJHL player try to tackle him). One NHL source told me that MacKinnon will draw a lot of penalties because of his agility and speed. His puck skills are high end, as well as his offensive vision. MacKinnon is not simply a north-south kind of player; he has a ton of offensive creativity, including the ability to dangle defensemen laterally, or make quick, precise feeds. MacKinnon measures at six feet tall, 182 pounds, but has an unusual amount of power to his game. An NHL executive told me that his level of talent is matched by his work ethic. MacKinnon will power through checks, grind out board battles, and land big hits. He projects as a forward with defensive value. He generates a lot of shots, and he has quality finishing ability. In short, there are almost no weaknesses in MacKinnon’s game, and he possesses a lot of skills that are in the upper tier. He projects as an elite NHL forward.
Ranking explanation: Ranking Drouin and MacKinnon together is natural. The obvious omission is Seth Jones, and I only considered ranking the Portland Winterhawks defenseman first or third. Jones is the most talented player in the draft, albeit by a non-significant gap. To put it simply, Drouin and MacKinnon are ranked ahead of him because of his position.
MacKinnon is a notably better skater than Jones, with a small advantage in offensive skill. However, Jones is a much better two-way thinker, and he has a significant size advantage on MacKinnon. Those two elements are more important for a defenseman (the skating and skill edges are more important for a forward). Skating value is applied differently for forwards than it is for defensemen (who have to move backwards). Hockey sense and offensive/puck-moving ability are the two most important skills in evaluating prospects. The edge in hockey sense that Jones has over MacKinnon is a stronger gap than MacKinnon’s edge over Jones in offensive ability. MacKinnon’s skating advantage is not enough to overcome the physicality advantage for Jones, but the difference remains small.”
“A superstar in the making since an early age, MacKinnon provides a very complete combination of speed and skill. He is an amazing skater with fantastic puckhandling. MacKinnon has the ability to make quick plays and score flashy goals, but isn’t shy about battling for the puck in front of the net either. He is surprisingly physical and owns a great shot to go along with quick hands.”
Jr. Hockey Recruit:
“Using his incredible speed, quick hands and elite vision, Nathan Mackinnon is scoring almost at will in the QMJHL, racking up 18 goals and 29 points in just 16 games to open the season. He is as dominant a player there is in junior hockey and a generational talent. Expect him to go #1 overall and make an immediate impact in the NHL next season.”
NHL player comparison: Taylor Hall
Next up: Valeri Nichushkin
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