The Noel as Power Forward Experiment

By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)

On Sunday, March 29th, in the game against the Cavaliers, the Sixers made an adjustment in their starting lineup. Coach Brown inserted Furkan Aldemir into the starting lineup and slid Nerlens Noel to the power forward position. The team made no secret that it was a move designed to give Noel more experience at the position in preparation for the eventual Noel-Joel Embiid frontcourt pairing. Despite the team’s relative success with Noel at the center position (and his progress individually), the team’s best chance to maximize the talents on its current roster is with those two playing together with Noel as the 4.

Unfortunately for the Sixers, the results since that move have been anything but promising. Not only has the team failed to win a game in the proceeding 6 games since the lineup change, but Noel’s production has dropped off the face of the earth. Depending on the severity of the ankle injury Noel suffered last game against the Wizards, he may be shut down for the final three games. Therefore, now is as good a time as any to take a look at the numbers.

I’ve laid out both the advanced stats from the past 6 games (when Noel started at PF) and the corresponding per-36 minute numbers, as well as each of those categories from the 20 games post all-star break and prior to that Cleveland game (when Noel started at center). Certainly, this is not a huge sample size and Noel was even getting some minutes with second units as the ostensible center, but still, the numbers are very discouraging.

We’ll start on the offensive end, where the results are not quite as bad. Noel was actually getting the ball slightly more, based on a small uptick in usage rate, and the team’s overall offensive rating only saw a small downtick. However, personally, Noel saw a huge drop-off in his field goal percentage, and as you might then expect, his scoring.

This drop was not because he was forced to take more outside shots as the ‘power forward’, as his percentage of field goals from less than 10 feet actually rose from 76.9% to 88.9%. Rather, having another big man on the court simply clogged up the lane immensely and through more bodies in the area Noel was trying to operate. Noel went from having the closest defender within 4 feet just 70.1% of the time, all the way up to 82.5% after the lineup change. It’s viewed as a fun thing watching Embiid through up three pointers in warmups, but whether he becomes a legitimate threat to hit the occasional corner three might determine the viability of the pairing with Noel.

Of course, the more precipitous decline was seen on the defensive end. The team went from what would be the 2nd-best defense in the league with Noel at center (slightly behind Golden State’s 97.9), to what would be the absolute worst with him at power forward (even below Minnesota’s 109.3). Not surprisingly, his steal and block totals fell off dramatically, as he has been chasing guys around on the perimeter rather than having the action funneled to him in the paint.

However, the problem with determining how well the team’s defense would play with Noel at power forward is that Furkan Aldemir and Henry Sims have both played atrocious defense. Teams have scored at will against the Sixers recently because neither of those guys offers any sort of rim protection. Embiid projects as a plus defender and having him back there in lieu of that pair could quickly correct the problem we’ve seen with Noel vacating the paint. After all, Noel does do some nice things on the perimeter; he has extremely quick hands and good timing to knock the ball away from ball handlers, and can use his length to affect a lot of outside shots. You can imagine a scenario where both of them on the court is a nightmare proposition for opposing offenses.

Ultimately, it was wise of the Sixers to ease Noel into the position this season so he’s more comfortable with the situation when Embiid jumps into the fray. The results have been awful within this recent small sample size, but what could you really expect shifting the anchor of the defense away from being one of the best defenders in the league to arguably a couple of the worst. We’ll have to wait and see what the actual Noel-Embiid pairing looks like, not some homeless man’s facsimile. As with everything regarding the Sixers, the answer lies in the future.