The Path Ahead

Hello Followers. Hope you’re having a great week.

Well, as we near the halfway point in the season, our little Cougies find themselves in a near identical situation as last year’s NIT team. If you want to take a peek at the stretch ahead, then read on.

Followers, last year, we headed into the final two weekends of conference play with a 3-2 record. At that point, we all mused that getting to 5-4 was necessary to secure a third straight NCAA tourney birth.

That week, we dropped both home games to the LA schools to stand at 3-4 heading into the final weekend of the conference’s 1st half. We then split at the Arizona schools to finish the first half at 4-5, and then promptly dropped both games on the subsequent Bay Area trip to fall to 4-7.

Notwithstanding that BAD loss to OSU at home the next weekend, our NCAA dreams (and nearly our NIT aspirations) were all-but done at that point.

Now we find ourselves in a similar situation: We’re 3-3 going into a tough LA road trip followed by what might be the toughest game left on the slate @ Washington. Following that tilt, we then get current conference leader ASU at home followed by those pesky Mildcats.

All in all, this sure seems like the critical stretch for any hope that we have to play in a real post-season tournament. While some of you, like Big Wood, think that an NCAA birth is out of the question, I am not so sure—especially if we get to 22 wins. But even more importantly, I think we need to get to 20 wins to get to the NIT. Remember, the NIT now privileges mid-major champions that did not win their conference tournaments. Expect that group to be large again this year. In addition, when you consider the Crap-10’s current 6th place power ranking, expect a slew of ACC, Big 12, Big 10, and Big East teams to get WAY more priority from the NIT selection committee than a mid-tier Pac-10 finisher.

So, let’s explore a few paths to 10-8 or better.

A) Win two out of the next three (plus a sweep of the AZs)
If we win 2 of the next three, we finish the first half a gaudy 5-4. From there, let’s suppose that we beat both Arizona schools at home. Do that, and we stand at 7-4 in conference. From there, reaching an 11-7 conference mark would “only” require a split on the road in the Bay Area, a sweep the Oregon schools on the last weekend, and a split at home against the LA schools. Add a win in the conference tournament, and our boys have 22 wins on the season. And THAT would be hard to keep out of the Dance. But for sure, it puts us back in the NIT.

B) Lose two out of the next three (plus a sweep of the AZs)
Lose 2 of the next three and we sit at 4-5. From there, a win over both AZ schools rights the ship at 6-5 headed to the Bay Area. If we can manage to nip the Trees in Maples (a TALL order), we’ll face the LA schools at home with a 7-6 record. Obviously, the wheels could still fall off the wagon at that point. But, it sure would seem that a team that comes home 7-6 after that stretch would win 3 of the next five. If true, we finish the year 10-8 with a 20-10 record. For me, that’s NIT for sure. And if we win a couple games in the Pac-10 tourney, we’re real close to the Dance.

C) Lose two out of the next three (then split with the Zonas)
When you add a 4-5 first half to a loss to one of the Zonas, we’ll head into Stanford at a very tight 5-6. Lose that game and the season is all but over, less a token CBI birth (but who’s to say we’d pay for it????). If we beat the Trees, then we’d come home 6-7 (we’re NOT beating CAL). From there, we’d have to win 4 of the next five. YIKES! In my mind, a sweep of the LA schools becomes absolutely necessary for a shot at 10-8. On top of that, we’d still have to sweep the Oregon schools on the road. Could happen, but that sure seems like a most precarious road.

Moreover, even if we get to 20 wins under that scenario, we might be in trouble in terms of quality wins. For instance, let’s say we lose 2 of the next 3 to both SC and Washington, then lose to ASU at home, then lose to CAL on the road, and then lose to Washington at home. Who then will we have beaten? SC? And by that point, will that matter much? Again, remember that we BARELY got into the NIT last year with a good team, with good wins, in a high bid league.

D) Win our next three games or lose our next three games.
If the former happens, we’re fat cats in the big city. If the latter happens, time to play Charlie and BjornBorgistad 38 minutes a night.

My projection:

At this point, I think this team has a really good shot to win 3 of the next five (UCLA, ASU, AZ). If we do that and can muster that tough road win at Stanford, then an NIT shot looks really, really solid for us.

But short of that, we’re in really, really BIG trouble. And, as I said earlier, the BIG THING to keep in mind over the next five games is that the line between NCAA, NIT, and NOTHING is razor, razor thin this year.

So, as we head into this five game stretch, the time to “wait and see” about this group’s development is just about over. It’s now put up or shut up time with this group. Lets hope that tomorrow night represents a loud roar for our young Cougar lads. Certainly, Saturday’s game looms as a win or go home type game.

Let us know your expectations and predictions for our team over this five game stretch.

And Let’s Go Cougs!