Has there been a better time for quarterbacks in the NFL?
Passing games are clicking at extraordinary paces, all the way from New England to San Diego and everywhere in between. Even traditional run-first teams like Pittsburgh and Chicago are moving to passer-heavy schemes.
For teams that don’t have a quarterback, it’s blatantly apparent. Derek Anderson had 27 yards passing last week for Cleveland. Oakland’s offense can’t move the ball. Minneosta obviously doesn’t trust Tavaris Jackson. Seattle sucks without Matt Hasselbeck under center.
What does that mean? The stars might be aligning for something we have not seen in a very, very long time: the drafting of a very large quarterback class at the top of the 2010 draft.
With the successes of Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, and Matthew Stafford, teams are in demand for quarterbacks that can play now, and help them win now.
There is a large group of teams out there that could be in the QB market come April. Among them are Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Oakland, Washington, and St. Louis.
Other periphery teams such as Dallas, Denver, and San Francisco could get into the mix depending on how their seasons end and their coaches decide to handle things in the offseason.
Finally, there is the group of Tennessee, Minnesota, Arizona, Seattle, and Carolina who have aging quarterbacks that may be looking for replacements next year.
This gives us a situation where as many as 14 of the 32 NFL teams could have “quarterback” on their team needs list going into the draft next year.
Since 1980, 5 or more quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round only twice. Once was in 1999 when Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, and Cade McNown all had their names called in the first round. The other came in 1983 when this class of quarterbacks hit the market:
-John Elway
-Todd Blackledge
-Jim Kelly
-Tony Eason
-Ken O’Brien
-Dan Marino
Three of those 6 made the Hall of Fame. New England and the New York Jets kicked themselves for years for drafting Eason and O’Brien over Dan Marino. In the Jets defense, O’Brien did make 2 Pro Bowls in his 7 years as a starter, but his career paled in comparrison to Dan Marino.
Now, let’s look at the other half of the equation: the crop of quarterbacks in the college ranks.
Everything starts with the “Big Three” in this class, but there is a lot of depth behind it.
Two of the “Big Three” have won Heisman Trophies. Two will be on display this week in the Red River Rivalry. Two are currently leading undefeated teams and on track to meet in the national championship game.
Tebow. McCoy. Bradford.
There are some questions about Tebow’s draft potential, but don’t be shocked if someone takes him in the first round. McCoy and Tebow are both seniors and will be in the draft. The real reason this “Perfect Storm” of QB need and QB availablility could emerge comes from the list of juniors that could opt to declare for the NFL draft. With rumors of a strike after next season because of labor disagreements, one would think that most juniors would opt to come out now, rather than risk their luck of being drafted then not getting to play because of a strike.
Let’s take a brief look at the headliner list of juniors sitting out there right now.
Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)
Bradford won the Heisman last year and carried his team to the national championship game. He suffered a shoulder injury earlier this season, and it remains to be seen how he bounces back. He might be the best QB prospect of the bunch, but Oklahoma’s O-line sucks this year, and he has been getting pounded.
Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)
Clausen leads the nation in passing efficiency (otherwise known as QB Rating). Clausen has the experience of starting over multiple seasons in college football, and has grown as a passer. He has a legitimate shot to win the Heisman if he keeps playing the way he is.
Case Keenum (Houston)
We see this all the time. A good quarterback at a non-BCS school puts up huge numbers against inferior opponents. Keenum has 17 TDs and 4 INTs in 5 games. At 6-1, he is tall enough to stand in the pocket and make throws. Let’s not forget that there is a solid group of NFL quarterbacks out there that didn’t go to BCS schools.
Other potential early exiters:
-Jake Locker (Washington)
-Jevan Snead (Ole Miss)
-Christian Ponder (Florida State)
This is not to forget about the rest of the group of seniors that will be graduating this year and entering this draft class.
Tony Pike (Cincinnati)
You’ve never heard of him either? That’s okay, not many people have. Don’t look now, but Cincinnati is undefeated and in the Top 10. Pike has the build of a strong-armed passer that NFL scouts love. At 6’6″ 210, Pike will be an intriguging prospect for scouts, particularly ones that are looking for a pocket passer.
Todd Reesing (Kansas)
Reesing lacks the size of Pike, but has put up some big numbers this year. He has been starting for a few years at Kansas and has been part of the Jayhawks resurgence as a football program.
Dan Lefevour (Central Michigan)
Basically, a poor man’s Tim Tebow. Lefevour has the skills to make plays with his feet when the plays break down, but also the ability to make throws down the field. He isn’t a “power” QB like Tebow is, but he has the speed and vision outside the pocket to make things happen. He is second in the nation in completion percentage and has only 4 INTs in 5 games.
Others:
-Zac Robinson (Oklahoma State)
-Max Hall (BYU)
-Jarrett Brown (West Virginia)
Obviously, there won’t be 14 quarterbacks taken in the first round of the draft next year.
However, we could be looking at a very rare occurrance where the pool of available quarterbacks is large enough to meet the need of teams that see themselves lacking an elite passer. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility to consider 5, 6, or maybe 7 teams springing for a quarterback in the upcoming draft. The real question will be, moving forward, do the NFL scouts deem that there are this many talented quarterbacks?
Looking at last year, Josh Freeman was probably not a first-round talent. However, since he was “the next best” QB available, his draft stock rose steadily for the two weeks before the draft. The Buccaneers took him at #17, after which a QB wasn’t taken until some time on the second day. If there are clear distinctions between “classes” of quarterbacks going into this draft, it could push the “top” prospect from the second class (such as Freeman was last year) up into the “top” class, because of demand.
Is it too early to speculate about these kinds of things? Of course. However, I needed something to write an analytical mid-week post about.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
