A day in Ottawa without there being a goaltending controversy is a day that does not exist.
After missing 17 straight games with a contusion on his blocker hand, Craig Anderson made his return to the lineup Sunday night at the expense of unsustainably hot Andrew Hammond.
It was a choice predicated on guessing when the unsustainably hot goaltender’s luck would run out and beating luck to the punch.
Through two periods, it looked like a brilliant decision with Anderson turning aside all of Calgary’s 21 shots. One period, 24 shots and four goals later, the Senators may have escaped with a shootout win, but Dave Cameron cannot escape the legions of armchair coaches who questioned his decision to rest an undefeated Hammond.
The criticisms of Cameron are a function of where Ottawa lies in the standings. Caught in no-man’s land, the Senators can either clinch the Eastern Conference’s second wild card seed or finish in the ninth overall position with the worst draft lottery odds. The magnitude of each and every game for the Senators is huge (or “yooooooge” if you’re Cameron).
Which leads us to tonight’s game versus the Boston Bruins…
A win tonight in regulation goes a long way to cutting Boston’s lead in the race for the final playoff seed. The Senators would sit three points back of the Bruins while holding a game in hand.
A loss tonight however, would be devastating. The Senators would drop seven points back in the playoff race with 17 games to play. Thanks to the Bruins having five more wins in regulation, the Senators cannot simply tie the Bruins in the standings. They will have to overtake them to get into the playoffs.
Meaning, for every remaining game that Boston wins down the stretch, Ottawa will have to match Boston’s win total and then win an additional three games to surpass them. In other words, if Boston wins tonight and then plays .500 hockey in their final 16 games, Ottawa would have to win 12 of their last 17 games (.705) to clinch.
Nobody is really thinking about these improbable odds though.
Afflicted with tunnel vision, fans are focused on the now.
You’re hearing it a lot these days, “Hockey is fun again.”
For the first time in a long time, the Senators are winning consistently and the composition of the roster is likable. Redundant veterans are out with injuries. Asinine personnel decisions and player usage patterns are no longer the norm. Andrew Hammond’s story is one of the NHL’s best and thanks to his efforts and performance, the Senators are flirting with playoff contention letting fans dream on a potential first round matchup with the Montreal Canadiens.
Hope sells until the Senators are mathematically eliminated from the postseason, but these the peril of being in no-man’s land.
Management will wax poetic about how they thought they had a real competitive team that improved under the direction of a new head coach. The tone of the message will be that this unsustainable run was indicative of the ‘true talent’ of this team and that next season, we’ll see a return to the postseason with the sustained development of this roster’s young players.
At this time next season, hopefully fans won’t be cursing Hammond for playing the Senators out of a better draft pick.
Lehner Rumours Heating Back Up?
Listening to tonight’s pre-game show on TSN 1200, Bob McKenzie made his regularly scheduled appearance and was asked about Hammond’s stock around the league and what this could mean for Ottawa’s goaltending situation moving forward.
Although McKenzie downplayed Hammond’s pedigree and the likelihood that teams were eager to make a play and kick the tires on Hammond in the offseason, he did reflect on Ottawa’s Lehner/Anderson tandem – making mention of the fact that if a budget team like Ottawa wants to plug holes elsewhere on the roster, it would make sense for them to move from their position of strength to address them.
Citing organizations like San Jose, Buffalo and Edmonton as organizations that needed a goaltender, McKenzie leaned towards Lehner being the guy to go if the Senators elect to move a goaltender.
Rumours involving Lehner aren’t anything new. Back in January, Darren Dreger appeared on TSN 1260 in Edmonton and discussed the communications
“I don’t think they know what they had yet in Robin Lehner. And that’s the big issue. Teams have called on Robin Lehner. In fact, I think that there’s been communication in the past between the Oilers and Ottawa Senators specific to Robin Lehner.
“But as much as Bryan Murray and the Sens want Robin Lehner to develop into their star goaltender, he’s not doing that yet. So the value in Craig Anderson from a Senators perspective is immeasurable. Maybe things change in terms of his availability as you get closer to the trade deadline, or in the offseason, but right now, if it weren’t for Craig Anderson, the Ottawa Senators would be a far worse team than what they are right now.”
Here is what I wrote at the time and I believe it to still stand true:
If the Senators have confidence in Anderson’s ability to age well into the latter years of his contract — maybe they look at Robin Lehner and question whether or not he will ever fulfill the lofty projections that have been put on him since he turned pro. Maybe the Senators believe Lehner’s an expendable asset who can be packaged into a trade to land a good positional player who can play a full season’s worth of games and not the 25-35 games a season that Lehner’s been entrusted with over the past few seasons.
Moreover, it’s not like backup goaltenders are difficult to find or acquire. With only 60 goaltending jobs available in the NHL, alternatives are out there each and every year in unrestricted free agency and thanks to the volatile nature of the position, goaltenders can usually be acquired quite cheaply in a trade.
…
it feels safe to reason that Ottawa’s target is/was Hall or Eberle.
To land either player, the package that the Senators offered would have to include more than just Robin Lehner. Some combination of players, prospects and draft picks would have to be made available to make it worth the Oilers’ while. Obviously one cannot judge a deal without knowing what each of the components are, but I can’t help but question the Senators’ philosophy.
Now maybe Lehner doesn’t pan out and fulfill the lofty projections placed upon him after he won the Calder Cup as a teenager with the Binghamton Senators or conversely or maybe he does.
Regardless of whether he does and regardless of how good players like Hall and Eberle are, I can’t help but question why the Senators would continue to mortgage significant parts of their future to build a forward corps around two wingers (Hall/Eberle and Bobby Ryan) without having any elite level centers, a farm system that could endure the opportunity cost to acquire one of Edmonton’s players, or having the money to help surround these players with better talent acquired through free agency?
To me, it doesn’t make a ton of sense.
Speaking of Ottawa’s willingness to move a goaltender, Elliotte Friedman discussed the situation in his latest ’30 Thoughts’ article.
- The goalie market this summer is going to be fascinating. It’s no secret Ottawa planned to make some kind of Craig Anderson/Robin Lehner decision. Lehner’s disappointing season muddles that because they can’t be certain he’s a full-time starter. And, what does his performance do to his trade value?
Andrew Hammond’s sudden surge adds an interesting variable. This is too small a sample size to make any sweeping judgments, but, if you’re the Senators, which one do you try to trade? If Anderson gets you the most, will you go into 2015-16 with a Hammond/Lehner combo?
As @NKB121 noted on Twitter, Anderson does make more money on next contract extension. If saving more money and being able to re-allocate that money around the payroll, maybe that’s another important consideration for management.
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