The Pirates will do something in the first round of the draft tonight, but no one knows what it is

I haven’t written much at all about this year’s draft, because the reality of it is that no one really knows what to make of anything. There are no standouts in this draft class like there have been in past years, and no one really has any idea what’s going to happen even in the first couple of picks, which makes predicting what the Pirates will do at #8 a borderline impossibility.

For a few weeks running up to the draft, the Pirates were pretty heavily associated with Deven Marrero, who’s a very, very slick fielding shortstop from Arizona State that hasn’t impressed with his bat at all in his junior year (and was considered a fringey hitter before 2012). That talk has cooled off recently, which seems like a good thing; Marrero seems like a reach at eight no matter who’s left on the board and with the new draft rules, the Pirates can’t afford to tread water wtih their high picks. 

Of course, that doesn’t mean we have any idea of who the Pirates will pick. In the latest version of their mock drafts, Jonathan Mayo has the Pirates talking Max Fried, Kevin Goldstein has them taking Mike Zunino, Jim Callis has them taking David Dahl, and Keith Law has them taking Marrero. Those choices are all over the map: Fried is a big projectible left-handed high school pitcher, Zunino is a college catcher that projects as good-but-not-great pretty much all over the board, Dahl is a toolsy high-school outfielder. Toss Marrero in and you’ve got one prediction saying they’ll make a need-based pick (Marrero), one prediction saying they’ll make a Huntington-style pick (Fried), one prediction saying they’ll go best college player available (Zunino) and one saying they’ll take a projectible high school outfielder (Dahl). The translation is that no one has any idea how the first round is going to shake out before the Pirates pick, and the Pirates themselves are another variable. (UPDATE: Law has changed his prediction to Dahl, as well, but says they’ll take Zunino or Albert Almora, another high school outfielder, if available). 

A lot will depend on what shakes out in front of them: Marrero and Dahl will be available almost no matter what at #8, but Fried and Zunino might not be. It’s possible that someone who’s considered likely to go in the higher part of the first round, but not one has guys like Carlos Correa or Byron Buxton falling all the way down to the Pirates in the eight spot (as I write this, I’m now reading that the Astros will apparently take Mark Appel, so we know that much at least). It’s also possible that the Pirates could roll the dice with Lucas Giolito, who was supposed to be the best prospect in the draft before an elbow injury ended his season early. With the new slotting rules, no one has any idea what Giolito would do if/when he’s picked after the first few picks pass. 

In short: pretty much anything could happen when the Pirates get on the clock tonight. It’ll be much easier to just see who they take and react from there. Don’t forget that the Pirates have two picks tonight: #8 and #45, in compensation for Ryan Doumit’s signing by the Twins.