The curtain rose on Draft Day 2013 with more subplots than your average bodice-ripper from the Blue Jackets’s perspective. Would Bobrovsky be signed? If not, would it be likely enough to avoid a big deal for a net minder? If not likely, how would the club fill the void? What deals could be done for scoring help? What caliber of prospects would be around for the Columbus picks? Who shot J.R.? Oops, sorry, got carried away there . . . (If you don’t get it, Google it, kids.)
Scene I — The Bobrovsky Reversals
The saga surrounding the re-signing of Sergei Bobrovsky had all the elements of a Cold War spy epic — Russian intrigue, a mysterious, little-known agent, conflicting messages and predictions of dire consequences if a negotiated peace could not be found.
As Sunday progressed, the pace of the drama escalated, waned, changed directions entirely — twice — and was then followed by a long and uneasy quiet. While the climax did not come until earlier today, by the time the draft wound down at 10:30 PM last night, the outcome seemed clear. The Coach was on top of it all the way, as documented in his Draft Day Live Blog.
The NHL commentators reported that the front office team were meeting with Bobrovsky’s agent early in the morning — a sign that a) the club really wanted to nail something down before the Draft, and b) the two sides were picking up the pace, providing reason for optimism. By late morning, however, a dramatic shift in the story line emerged, when TSN’s Darren Dreger reported that the Blue Jackets were shopping Bobrovsky on the trade market, and that Bobrovsky wanted a minimum of $6 million per year. That sent everyone scrambling. As a source close to the organization observed, the club has a lot of visibility on Bobrovsky from a marketing and public relations perspective, and this sudden turn of events could require massive re-tooling on those fronts. These events have trickle down impacts well beyond the ice surface.
The reaction in other quarters was immediate and vocal, ranging from “$6 million per year? He’s crazy!!!” to the predictable “If they don’t sign Bobrovsky for whatever it takes, Davidson and Kekalainen should be fired.” Fortunately, for those who are fans of sanity, the former exceeded the latter by a fair margin. Many of us also opined that this was likely a nice strategic play by Kekalainen, serving the dual purpose of protecting his flank and conveying a very direct message that the organization was prepared to move on. As reports later indicated that the Blue Jackets were one of four clubs in serious contention for Cory Schneider, had discussions with Buffalo about Ryan Miller and supposedly received a significant offer from Edmonton, there was more substance than bluff around this move.
Whatever the ultimate intent of the front office might have been, the desired results were swift in coming. Less than 90 minutes after the bomb had dropped, ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun announced that Columbus was “very close” to a new deal with Bobrovsky, another 180 degree plot twist that had most breathing easier. While nothing was heard during the draft itself, by the end multiple reports suggested a “deal in principle.” That deal became reality earlier today, when a two-year, $11.25 million contract was announced, with the salary equally allocated over the two years.
So, as Scene I draws to a close, the question in everyone’s mind is the same “Is he worth it?” Only time will answer that question, but the more pertinent question is “Should the Blue Jackets have signed this deal?” To that, I would answer “Yes”, albeit not with total enthusiasm. As I’ve noted in my other articles on the subject, goalies are strange critters, and can turn on you in a heartbeat. Guys play like world beaters one minute, then can’t stop a beach ball the next. Craig Anderson was the savior in Colorado, then was run out on a rail to Ottawa, where he has resumed his form. Bryzgalov? Fleury? Nabokov? All have been there, done that. Equally clear, however, is that a dominant presence in goal is essential for any club even dreaming of post-season success. Sure, Columbus fans have a right to fear being “Masoned” (a verb coined by my brother-in-law, describing a high degree of suckage following the award of a major NHL trophy. Thanks, DJ — commission check to follow…Not.) However, what if Bobrovsky is the real deal, and remains that way for the long haul? He has the work ethic to do just that.
At the end of the day, the Blue Jackets were playing poker with the short stack of chips. Sure, Bobrovsky played a limited NHL schedule this year, but he was better than everybody else at the position, and truly just continued the level of play he showed in the KHL during the lockout. True, he had one good year and one bad year in Philadelphia, but the second year is almost unfairly included, as he was basically kicked to the curb by Holmgren in favor of Bryzgalov, and saw precious little action. If you factor in his early adjustment to the new club and the small ice, he was remarkably consistent, and actually dominant, under a brutal schedule.
A late development that may have been the nail in the coffin was the announcement in Phoenix that the Coyotes had signed Mike Smith to a six-year, $34 million contract, reportedly with a no-trade clause. That’s a cap hit of $5,666,667, just a trace more than Bobrovsky’s new deal. Everyone knew that the struggle in the negotiations was agreeing on a comparable salary to use as a guide. There just aren’t any 24-year-old Vezina Trophy winners in the NHL. Period. Sure, Smith is 31, and has parts of seven seasons in the NHL (compared to three for Bobrovsky). However, most of those years have been unremarkable, to be charitable. Like Bobrovsky, Smith has had one great year — the 2011-12 season, when he posted a .930 save percentage and a 2.21 GAA over 67 games. Last season, he had a good, but not spectacular, season, with 2.58 goals against and a .910 save percentage. However, only twice before had he played in half of an NHL schedule or more (41 games in 08-09, 42 in 09-10), and posted a GAA of over 2.8 over that time, with a save percentage under .910. All things considered, probably not a bad comparable.
From the Blue Jackets perspective, the risk is worth taking. The goaltenders in the system are likely a year or two out from being NHL ready — in any capacity — and, unlike Mason, Bobrovsky is willing to work for his cash. They have the cap space to work with, and the risk is finite — just two years. Bobrovsky did not get a no-trade clause, and there is always a market for net minders. Using the legal standard that a good settlement is one that has both sides grumbling, I think this fits the bill.
Scene II — Deals? What Deals
Heading into the draft, I was on record predicting that the Blue Jackets would use only one of their first round picks, using the others in trades on what everyone projected to be a very active day of trading. It seems that I joined a very non-exclusive club in being dead wrong on that prediction. On a day that began with a Nino Niederreiter for Cal Clutterbuck trade, I should have known things would go downhill from there . . .
The only truly momentous deal of the day was, of course, the trade that sent Vancouver’s Cory Schneider to New Jersey, in exchange for the Devils’ #9 overall pick. That sent eyebrows bouncing off the cross-beams from the floor of Nationwide. That was not the Canuck goalie most expected to be traded, and the price was relatively benign for a guy slated to be heir apparent. That role did not fit well under Luongo, so New Jersey is hoping it is better suited with Brodeur as his mentor. So now the Vancouver front office must make the walk of shame to Luongo’s front door and seek forgiveness. That will not go well…
That pretty much sums up the significant trade activity for the day. San Jose made a nice move in getting Tyler Kennedy from the Penguins for the #50 overall pick, and Chicago dumped David Bolland and Michael Frolik to the Leafs and Jets, respectively, in exchange for picks. In all of these cases, the trading teams could not really afford to bring salary back, which was the only reason these occurred.
Why the lack of action? Likely several reasons. First, the drop in the salary cap, combined with the compliance buy-out option, creates a larger atmosphere of uncertainty than usual. Second, with the compressed timeline necessitated by the lockout and the extended season, the clubs get an “interview period” for free agency, from today until July 5th, when signings can occur. Those signings can trigger deals themselves, so General Managers were likely less inclined to jump into trades at this point in the process. Finally, simple logistics likely holds some culpability. Parting with past protocol, the entire seven-round draft was completed yesterday, in well under 8 hours. At that pace, and with teams overturning conventional wisdom in their picks, there really was little time to adjust, re-assess and come up with a new plan of action. Inertia became the overwhelming factor, and the dealing could never get off the ground.
While an active trading day always heightens the suspense at the draft, there is no compelling need that these deals happen at that time. While Scene II had some tense moments, waiting for action that never happened, it likely was building the suspense for later action.
Scene III — The Young Guns
While everyone was awaiting “The Big Deal” — the primary plot line moved along according to plan–namely the acquisition of some young talent to fuel future success. Alexander Wennberg, Kerby Rychel and Marko Dano joined Blue Jackets Nation in the first round, and reviews were generally positive for the level of talent Columbus was able to accumulate.
Wennberg is a smart, skilled center with 32 points in 46 games in his last Swedish campaign. He is
expected to return to Sweden for one more year, but will be at both the prospects and training camps. Rychel was a bit of a surprise pick, but his numbers do not lie. 82 goals and 148 points in 136 games for the Windsor Spitfires over the past two years. Although only 18, he is a respectable 6’1″ 205 pounder who could surprise. The club likely leveraged its relationship with former assistant Bob Boughner, who operates the Spitfires, to gain some solid understanding of Rychel and his capabilities. Dano is Austrian-born and a Slovakia resident, who just completed his first full year in the KHL. Though his numbers there were nothing spectacular, he did show flair at the World Juniors, and could be the most likely of the three to see NHL time this season. He is a power forward in style, can play either center or wing, and has the kind of aggressiveness that the Blue Jackets appear to be courting.
I’ll leave the specific analysis of the full draft to @CBJProspects, who is likely recovering from having his jaw hit the table so frequently yesterday, and The Coach, who appeared less than enthralled with some of the picks, based upon his live blog. From where I sit, however, the club was able to add some significant — and needed — offensive depth; did not need to use the picks for help in goal; and retain lots of options going forward. That’s a win, and a satisfying way to end Act I of the Off-Season Show.
Intermission — What Will Act II Bring?
Everybody can take a deep breath, stretch the legs and ponder what is yet to come. Even after the Bobrovsky deal, the Blue Jackets have just under $10 million in cap space to fill four roster spots, including the back-up goalie slot. That includes Ryan Murray’s cap hit of just under $3.5 million. If you re-sign Blake Comeau at about $1.5 million, and sign a reserve net minder for about the same, that leaves $7 million for two slots. If Umberger’s $4.6 million moves for picks and prospects, and you replace it with Boone Jenner’s hit of just under $900 K, you now have $10.7 million for two slots. Move Umberger for an upgrade and add Jenner, you still have a net gain and some available cap space. Now, names like Horton come into the picture, and the opportunity to perhaps drop some offer sheets on some of the restricted free agents. For some defensive depth, Andrew Ference could be a great option. (As always, thanks to CapGeek.com for all of the salary and cap data — a life saver!)
When you look at those kinds of scenarios, it is easy to see why Davidson and Kekalainen are so reticent to commit to a specific course of action, other than “making the organization better.” Vinny Prospal is also waiting in the wings, and probably would command no more than $2.0 million per year. But, with the fluidity of the situation, the organizations desire to wait a bit before committing to Prospal gains better focus.
Ever willing to ride my predictions all the way to the ground, I’m sticking with my prior prognostications, and expect between one and three significant deals before the principals depart for their Canadian cottages. In the meantime, prospects camp looms large, and I know that @CBJProspects will be camped out for that one. Unfortunately, all of this will happen without Tyler Wright, who is leaving the organization, per a club announcement made today. He was apparently offered a slot not involving amateur scouting, but declined the move. Tyler has been one of the faces of the franchise since his playing days, and a pillar of the community. Progress often has victims, and this is one of them. Best wishes, Tyler.
Stay tuned, Act II promises to be a thriller!
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