The Portland Trail Blazers had a rough offseason. Their 1a, Damian Lillard, was marooned in the Rose City when their 1b, LaMarcus Aldridge, bolted town, seemingly never intent on re-signing with Portland, ultimately ending up as the next piece in the dynastic arsenal of San Antonio.
When free agency opened over the past summer, it was as if the Columbia River parted like the Red Sea for the Portland Trailblazers, and the exodus was swift. The biggest loss was easily LaMarcus Aldridge, a star level player who had a reputation as one of the few bigs in the league who was deadly enough from the long-two and mid-range so as to not be considered a detriment to his team when chucking up 18-footers.
But Aldridge wasn’t alone in his journey to a new land. Several key pieces to the success of the Blazers over the last few years decided their milk and honey laid somewhere else. Robin Lopez ended up with the Knicks, Wesley Matthews landed in Dallas, Nicholas Batum was traded to the Charlotte Hornets, and short term addition Arron Afflalo opted to join Lopez in New York. In a reversal of the Biblical figure’s story, it seemed that Lillard was perhaps the instrument that parted the sea for Aldridge’s departure, setting Lillard adrift alone, much like the baby Moses.
Portland’s season was considered a loss before it even tipped off. In a hyper-competitive Western Conference there is no room for the weak. Teams with any weaknesses will have a difficult time competing for a playoff spot. In Portland’s case, losing four starters and key bench pieces left them facing the reality of missing the playoffs for the first time since the 2012-13 season. The potentially doomed Blazers replaced their missing pieces by promoting third-year guard C.J. McCollum to a starting role, giving fellow third-year Allen Crabbe a big upgrade in minutes, and bringing in bigs Mason Plumlee and Ed Davis, forwards Al-Farouq Aminu, Noah Vonleh, and guard Gerald Henderson.
The changes have been massive, but the demise of Portland has been greatly exaggerated, so far at least. While it certainly feels like an off year with teams like the Houston Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans stumbling out of the gates in comparison to expectations, Portland is trying to stay afloat and within striking distance of a playoff spot. Indeed, if you asked which team was only one game out of playoffs and which team is four games back of the last spot, you would expect the Blazers and Pelicans to be swapped in the standings.
There are still 55 games on the Blazers schedule for the 2015-16 season and the playoffs certainly look like a pipe dream, but some combination of Lillard and his supporting cast under head coach Terry Stotts has kept this team fighting for a spot in the playoffs. Their roster doesn’t provide the strength of depth of the contenders in the West, but they have performed well enough to compete with the sliding Utah Jazz and the wild card Phoenix Suns, and are right on the heels of the current seventh and eighth seeded Rockets and Denver Nuggets.
The Blazers have stuck around largely thanks to the tandem guard play of Lillard and McCollum. McCollum is quietly emerging as the bigger threat in the Blazers backcourt this season. He is shooting better percentages on field goals and from three-point range than Lillard, while averaging comparable numbers of attempts.
Surprisingly, the Trail Blazers have not seen a drop off in offensive production after losing last season’s team scoring leader. The scoring combination from these two (44.6) is strikingly similar, purely based on points per 36, to Lillard/Aldridge (45.0) last season. The advent of McCollum is probably the most feel good thing happening in Portland right now – excluding the Portland Timbers MLS championship, of course.
Their defense has been a great deal worse. Last season the Blazers boasted an offensive rating of 108.2, good enough for 9th best in the league, and were also a top 10 defense with a rating of 103.7. This season, a defensive rating of 106.6 has them in the bottom 10. There are some factors that would appear to bear an obvious relationship to this decline. Lillard has always been an offense first guard and not considered a defender in most senses of the word, but he isn’t getting the same contributions behind him as last season either.
Using the numbers provided by the good people over at Nylon Calculus, we can isolate for the type of seasons that Robin Lopez and his replacement, Mason Plumlee are having. Yes, Ed Davis is on the Blazers roster, but no, he is not a starter. Plumlee is getting 27.0 minutes per game and has started all 27 games for Portland this season, heading into December 18. Davis is coming off the bench and picking up just over 22 minutes per game. The rim protection numbers aren’t a good sign for the Plumlee majority line.
When Lopez went to New York, he took his rim protection numbers with him. This season, Lopez is saving 0.70 points per 36 minutes for the Knicks while Plumlee is costing Portland -1.09. There are plenty of factors involved here, they aren’t playing on the same team in a like-for-like substitution or some other controlled environment. The numbers are across teams, but the swing between the two represents a difference of 1.79 points per 36 minutes in favor of Lopez. The good news for the Blazers — Davis is getting 22 minutes per game and is saving 0.35 points per 36 minutes, a 1.44-point increase over the negative numbers of Plumlee. Still, Davis can’t compensate for the Plumlee crater playing a minority of minutes.
So we understand that there are some obvious factors that contribute to the spiraling defense of the Blazers this season, which probably accounts for a good amount of their struggles. It’s hard enough trying to slow down James Harden, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and anyone in a Spurs or Warriors uniform if you are to function at full strength with a deep squad, how do you do it without that depth and Stotts starting Plumlee over Davis?
This doesn’t all fall on the shoulders of Plumlee or Davis. It also falls on that great offense. While Portland is having an abnormally good season, offensively, they still come up short in a few areas. This season, the Trail Blazers are ranked 6th in offensive rating, boasting a line of 106.1. While they are ranked higher in the league to this point than last season, they still have taken a 2.1-point step back in that category. Additionally, they are only playing at the 22nd highest pace in the league. If your defense isn’t getting as many stops as it used to, playing well below league average pace is never going to compensate for that difference.
If the Trail Blazers could maintain their eFG% — which is weighted to account for three point attempts – which is currently 6th best in the league and well above league average while increasing their pace, they go from hanger-on to true playoff contender.
This team was always going to struggle on the defensive end, but the surprising play of McCollum has helped to give their offense a boost which has helped keep the floor from falling out.
The Blazers will need a lot more than just great backcourt scoring from Lillard and McCollum to move into the playoffs. Players like Aminu, Crabbe and Davis are going to have to make the most of their opportunities every night out and Vonleh will need to take a few steps, or leaps, forward. There are a lot of players to keep an eye on as they get more playing time than ever before. If they can hold this together while other teams begin to slide and stars potentially implode, the Blazers may find their lottery days ending before they even begin.
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