Well, this is part one of the prediction post. If you listened to today’s Rhino and Compass Radio, you already heard these picks, but in a dull monotone. You can move on, but thanks for the page view! Let’s rock and roll, division by division.
AL East
Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays are well managed, well organized young and talented. They keep managing to bring in young talent and redevelop their roster. The A’s and Billy Beane made Moneyball famous, but the Rays and Andrew Friedman perfected it. Theirs is the most stable franchise in the division right now, and I have to believe that will pay off.
Toronto Blue Jays (Wild Card) – Count me as someone who thinks the Blue Jays off season will be for naught. I feel like their rotation is a combination of too old and too injury prone to be seriously effective. Don’t get me wrong, I like the Jays chances, but I don’t think the season will be as flawless as anticipated.
New York Yankees (Wild Card) – The season will go a little something like this: The Yankees struggle. The Yankees fall behind. The Yankees get impatient. The Yankees add key players at the trade deadline. The Yankees sneak into the playoffs.
Boston Red Sox – The Red Sox are still athletic and they got a bit more so this year. They won’t be quite as disastrous as last year. Can’t be.
Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles will not repeat their season from last year. Too many things broke their way, from one run games to bullpen execution, they got too lucky. Smartly, they didn’t sacrifice any resources that would have been wasted on a team that overachieved last year. Still, the Orioles will be proof that any year, any team can go on a run.
AL Central
Detroit Tigers – They are pretty good. It’s mostly due to their offense. Their pitching staff is sketchy enough that the division could be up for debate a little bit longer than it should be.
Chicago White Sox – The White Sox fit that whole “stability” thing, making only a few tweaks, bringing Jeff Keppinger into the fold, for example. They loaded up two years ago, and didn’t need to blow it out this year. Tough to catch the Tigers though.
Kansas City Royals – The Royals need a lot of things to happen, but they all fit in the same general category. Their young offensive talent actually needs to perform like they are talented, whether it be Hosmer, Moustakas or Cain. Their rotation is better, obviously, with James Shields, Ervin Santana and Wade Davis entering the mix via trade, and Jeremy Guthrie signing a free agent contract. It’s not a great rotation, it’s not a great team, but it could certainly be a very good team.
Minnesota Twins – Their offense is acceptable. You are looking for things to complain about if you say otherwise. The problem two years ago stemmed from injuries to position players. Last year was the rotation, and the offense was much better. If the rotation is simply bad rather than historically awful, that should be good enough for 5-8 more wins.
Cleveland Indians – Tell me where, legitimately, you think the Indians are better than the Twins. They spent a little money this year, but so what? They would be phenomenally awful if they hadn’t. Now they are merely bad.
AL West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – It’s still a stupid name. They have so much talent. It didn’t come together last year, but like the White Sox last year, I think this is the year that they start to see some serious results. Pujols is comfortable, they know what they have in Trout and Trumbo and they have added Hamilton. Watch out.
Texas Rangers – Yawn. Pierzynski? Berkman? That’s the best they could do? The Rangers have taken an obvious step back. They are still pretty good, but I worry about their rotation. Eminently hittable.
Oakland A’s – I said in the radio show that I expected the A’s and Mariners to be very similar this season. I am picking the A’s over the Mariners because I am a wimp and the A’s were better last year. No real good analysis here. The A’s are bound to take a step back because the Angels will be much better, and they are a more known commodity.
Seattle Mariners – They want a little bit more offense, so they added Kendrys Morales and Michael Morse and moved in the fences. The questions surround the back of their rotation. The best news is they won’t finish last, no matter how much the rotation scuffles!
Houston Astros – Hey…. they‘re in the AL now!
NL East
Atlanta Braves – I really like what the Braves did in the off-season. They added a couple of outfielders that either restocked or improved their team. The rotation is young and skilled as well, and they have a ton of young talent. I like their chances, is what I’m saying.
Washington Nationals (Wild Card) – They got a new lead off guy in Denard Span without weakening their current roster.They appear to be better over all. I still like karma to bite them for the hubris in benching Stephen Strasburg for the post season, anticipating many more post season runs in the future. Karma never seems to follow through for me, so they will probably get to the playoffs.
Philadelphia Phillies – They added Ben Revere and Delmon Young, perhaps the two most opposite people you could put in a clubhouse, and this is the second time they have been teammates! The Phillies are my fun team to watch this year, taking over for the A’s from last year. This is the first time the Phillies have been fully healthy in a while, so it’s hard to believe they will remain that way.
Miami Marlins – For all the uproar the Marlins created with their trades of virtually everyone this year, it seems to be ignored that they didn’t leave the cupboards completely bare. They have a wealth of young talent both leftover and imported. I think the Marlins will be better than people think.
New York Mets – Ugh. The Mets. They are not good.
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds – This is a team that reminds me of the Twins from a few seasons ago. They built with their own players, just on offense rather than defense, and have been able to sustain success for a little while. Now they are to a point where they are comfortable with making moves, like the one for Shin Soo Choo this year and Mat Latos last year, that will benefit them on a season by season basis. The NL Central is week, so I like the Reds chances this year.
Saint Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals have lost some players and had bad luck this year, namely with Chris Carpenter getting injured, but I think they will have enough in the cupboard to be competitive. That was a little bit of exaggeration. They still have quite a bit left over, just not enough to beat the Reds.
Chicago Cubs – Yeah, I did it.. They worked almost exclusively on their pitching this year, which is the way you work to turn around an awful team. Pitching first. Theirs is no respectable.
Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates are building in exactly the opposite way as the Cubs. They have a lot of young positional prospects and players, and I don’t think you can really question their potential on offense or defense. I can and will question their pitching. They have Wandy Rodriguez as a 2nd starter, which is something that could be said about last year’s Astros. AJ Burnett is due to fall back to earth. James McDonald is the only pitcher worth feeling confident about, starter or reliever.
Milwaukee Brewers – I think it’s sort of a toss up 2-5 to be honest with you. The Brewers get 5th because I wanted to reflect how much stronger I thought the Cubbies are. But truly, the Brewers a generic bunch. They have a strong ace and a strong closer, as well as a couple of good position players, but they will likely be hurt by continuing questions about Ryan Braun and a remarkable lack of depth.
NL West
San Francisco Giants – True Fact: The Giants have never not won the World Series with Buster Posey on the team. I like teams that work with their own developed players, and with guys like Brandon Belt, Posey and Pablo Sandoval, as well as a fearsome rotation, I think they will do pretty well for themselves again this year.
Los Angeles Dodgers (Wild Card) – The Dodgers are suddenly flush with cash, and they spent a lot of it. They are helped by beating up on 2 bad teams and one mediocre team within their division. Give them a spot in the post season. It will be hard to keep them out, especially given their rotation.
Arizona Diamondbacks – The D-backs did a good job of maximizing value while improving their team and redistributing young talent to put themselves in a stronger position for the future. With the two juggernauts atop the division, they don’t stand a chance to win the division.
San Diego Padres – The Padres are a very interesting team. In another environment, there are a lot of players here that would be exciting to watch, but their rotation is so bad that all they do is make me sad. Why must they be in the barren wasteland that San Diego? Can’t even enjoy their intermittent highlights.
Colorado Rockies – Probably the worst team in baseball. Worse than the Astros. Used to have hope for them, but no longer.
Post season:
One game playoff:
Dodgers over Nationals, Blue Jays over Yankees
Wild Card round
Braves over Dodgers, Giants over Reds
Angels over Blue Jays, Rays over Tigers
Championship Series
Braves over Giants, Angels over Rays
World Series
Braves over Angels (I might be drunk)
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