The Seahawks’ 2012 Free Agency Conundrum

2011 produced a surprisingly competitive Seahawk roster. Despite finishing with the same record as 2010 (7-9), Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider propelled the team’s defense to 9^th overall in the league, including 7^th in scoring defense. The offense started very slow, but Marshawn Lynch was the NFL’s leading rusher over the last 9 games of the season. The team also finished with the 5^th best turnover margin in the league at +7.

These statistics could allow even the most rudimentary simpleton to surmise that the strength of the team was defense and rushing. The problem with that is that the majority of the Seahawks eligible for free agency this offseason belong to those two critical areas.

First the rushing attack. Seattle running backs Marshawn Lynch, Justin Forsett, and Michael Robinson are all unrestricted free agents, as is defacto starting right tackle Breno Giacomini. Also, it is important to consider the possible injury hangover the remainder of Seattle’s starting o-line will face following significant injuries to incumbent starters Russell Okung, James Carpenter, and John Moffitt. All things considered, Seattle will have a lot of work to do to maintain its high-powered rushing attack in 2012. The easiest and most documented way to ensure a similar attack next year is to use the franchise tag as a negotiating factor to lock down Marshawn Lynch (pro-bowl alternate). Re-sign Michael Robinson (pro-bowl alternate), and develop the offensive line that Seattle has selected the last 2 drafts. Most Seahawk insiders believe that Justin Forsett has likely played his last game for Seattle, and that Giacomini is likely destined for a team willing to promise him a starting job next season.

Now to the larger problem. Seattle’s success in 2011 has been all about their defense. However, many of Seattle’s defensive stars are due to become unrestricted free agents this off-season. This includes starters: DT Red Bryant, CB Brandon Browner (pro-bowl alternate), LB Leroy Hill, LB David Hawthorne, CB Marcus Trufant; and reserve S Atari Bigby, DE Raheem Brock, and DE Anthony Hargrove. Reserve CB Roy Lewis and DT Clinton McDonald will also be restricted free agents. That is a plethora of contributors to this stout Seahawk defense. The general theory being leaked to the public is that the Seahawks are a hungry young team who want to stay together and grow up as a unit. I think I speak for Seahawk nation when I say that that’d be ideal – especially for the defense. However, this is a business and there are millions of reasons for players to jump ship.

All that being said, here are some factors working for a Seahawk 2012 reunion for the majority of these free agents. Pete Caroll is a player’s coach, and Seattle is a very young team that benefits from that. Seattle has an outstanding fan base that always sells out and loves their players. Good luck finding that in Philadelphia, New York, or Jacksonville. Lastly and perhaps most importantly, the Seahawks have significant cap room in 2012. Thanks to many savvy picks and roster trimming, the Seahawks have enjoyed tremendous production from affordable players the last two seasons. This coupled with some expiring contracts will allow Seattle to make the moves necessary to keep the majority of the team together if they so choose. Most analysts think that Seattle will move on without Marcus Trufant and Raheem Brock. Conversely, it seems unlikely that Red Bryant and Brandon Browner will depart from Seattle based on their unique abilities and perhaps their inabilities to mesh well with another defense. Safety Atari Bigby will likely leave, not wanting to play second fiddle to Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas. And the Seahawks will probably elect not to re-sign both veteran linebackers Hill and Hawthorne based on historical tendencies. Therefore, even a best case scenario will welcome new faces into the Seahawks’ defense next season.

The other free agents to be mindful of are TE John Carlson (UFA), QB Charlie Whitehurst (UFA), and WR Doug Baldwin (RFA). Carlson and Whitehurst will likely be jettisoned, but I don’t imagine another team offering Doug Baldwin such a substantial contract that Seattle’s brass would neglect to match it. So expect Baldwin to be back next year.

Don’t worry too much about all these free agents. In 2004, the Seahawks faced a similar problem on the offensive side of the ball with excessive free agents. That turned out pretty well. The 2005 Seahawks went to a Super Bowl.