On Wednesday, the Seattle Mariners acquired Dan Vogelbach, a minor league slugger with impressive plate discipline, and AA pitcher Paul Blackburn from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for former top prospect, left-hander Mike Montgomery, and AAA pitcher Jordan Pries. The centerpieces of the deal are Vogelbach and Montgomery.
The Cubs, who have been linked to rumors surrounding both Andrew Miler and Arolddis Chapman of the New York Yankees, with the caveat being that the Yankees would want Kyle Schwarber in return, apparently satisfy their need for a lefty out of the bullpen for the pennant stretch, while the Mariners add a patient yet powerful bat to their farm system.
What Does Vogelbach Bring to the Mariners?
In 500 games and 2,131 PA at all levels of the minor leagues since being drafted in the second round in 2011 out of high school, Vogelbach has a .389 OBP. This year in AAA with the Iowa Cubs of the PCL, with a lot of hitter friendly parks, he is hitting .318/.425/.548 with 16 HR and 64 RBI in 89 games. The ability to get on base at a near 40% clip fits in perfectly with the Jerry Dipoto vision of what the Mariners should look like building for the future. He also immediately slots in as the top prospect in the Mariners’ farm system.
The down side? While Vogelbach could play first base, a position currently covered by the platoon of Adam Linn and Dae-Ho Lee, his most likely roster position is DH, due to substandard fielding and a general lack of athleticism that is sure to remind Mariners’ fans of the debacle that was Jesus Montero. This could pose problems over the next two years as “hands of stone” Nelson Cruz ideally should avoid the outfield as much as possible and occupy the DH spot almost exclusively.
Building a team that is patient at the plate and skilled at getting on base is a sound philosophy (just ask the New York Yankees of the late 90s and the Boston Red Sox of the aughts), but doing so at the expense of defense in such a spacious park as Safeco could prove to be problematic. But one DH type per American league roster can work. Again, just look to the Boston Red Sox and the ageless David Ortiz.
What Does Dealing Montgomery Mean for the Mariners?
The trading of Mike Montgomery, a precious commodity as a lefty out of the bullpen, probably signals that the front office realizes a .505 record after ninety-three games probably isn’t going to cut it. Currently FanGraphs gives the M’s an 8.9% chance of winning the division, an 8.6% chance of grabbing a wild card spot, and a 17.5% chance overall of making the playoffs.
While Montgomery has posted a 2.34 ERA that translates to a 174 ERA+, 61.2 innings of work out of the bullpen on a team with a shaky starting rotation doesn’t justify not adding a potential 30 HR bat. Relief pitching may win championships these days, but it doesn’t guarantee success in the regular season. If it did, the Yankees with Miller, Chapman, and Dellin Betances would be in first place instead of floundering around .500.
Moving Montgomery may have lessened the chances the Mariners will make the playoffs by a small margin, but the odds of getting there have become pretty slim as the season approaches the 100 game mark. The addition of Vogelbach is a move in the right direction for acquiring solid young talent going forward.
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