After a rocky start to the season, which saw the Seattle Seahawks record at 2-4 after a week six loss to the Carolina Panthers, they have ripped off eight wins in their last ten games, including the 36-6 demolition of NFC division winner and rival Arizona Cardinals in week seventeen. As a result, the 12^th men and women of the Emerald City are brimming with confidence heading into the playoffs, despite a road back to the Super Bowl that runs from Minnesota to Carolina and most likely back to Arizona.

Simply put, this team is “hot” and, if there is such a thing, certainly has what the television analysts like to call “momentum.” What many may not realize, however, is just how hot the Seahawks are from an historical perspective.

Third Best Weighted DVOA of All-Time

According to the good people over at Football Outsiders, the blowout victory over the Cardinals last Sunday lifted the Seahawks’ Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) to 38.0% above league average to finish the season as the most efficient team in the NFL. Seattle is no stranger to this lofty DVOA status, as this is the fourth year in a row they have been the most efficient team in the league.

In terms of historical end of season DVOA, the 2015 ‘Hawks rank eighth all-time (the stat goes back to 1989), just behind the 2012 Seahawks that had a 38.7% DVOA and two behind the 2013 Seahawks that had a 40.0% DVOA. The all-time leader is the 1991 Washington DC Football Team that won the Super Bowl under the direction of Mark Rypien (who says you need a franchise QB to be great). That Washington team had a DVOA of 56.9%. The only other team in history to end a season with a DVOA over 50% was the almost perfect, if not for “helmet catch,” 2007 New England Patriots. That almost historic team recorded a 52.9% DVOA.

It’s also interesting to note that this season’s 10-6 mark is the worst record of all the teams on the top twelve leaderboard in DVOA. The estimated win total for a team as efficient as the Seahawks is 12.5. The inability to beat the soon to be Los Angeles Rams might account for those two plus non-wins.

But what about “hotness,” “momentum?” Wasn’t that the original question?

Well, Football Outsiders also has a metric for weighted DVOA called WEI (weighted efficiency index – and because wDVOA would push the boundaries of acronyms). What WEI attempts to do is weight the more recent games more heavily than the games from earlier in the season. Intuitively this makes sense for the purposes of determining which teams are playing the best right now heading into the playoffs.

And, as might be expected, eight of the top ten teams in WEI are playoff teams. The exceptions are the New York Jets, who rank 8^th in WEI, but choked away a playoff spot Sunday to the Buffalo Bills, and the Green Bay Packers, who have been in a tailspin for weeks, but eked out wild card spot, despite a 19^th ranked WEI.

The Seahawks led the league in WEI with 51.1% team efficiency above league average, blowing away the second place Kansas City Chiefs that have a WEI of 37.8%.

What are the Playoff Implications of a High WEI?

Historically, the 51.1% WEI is one of only three such marks over 50% and ranks third all-time behind that ’91 Washington Super Bowl team at 52.4% and the 2010 Pats that lost in the division round to the New York Jets, with 54.3%. Great. So, outcomes may vary anywhere from a Super Bowl win to losing your first playoff game? Well, not exactly.

Of the top twelve teams in WEI from 1989 to the present, five won the Super Bowl (including the 2013 Seahawks), one lost the Super Bowl, one lost in a conference championship game, and three lost in the division round. Of course, none of those previous teams began the playoffs as a wild card (the 1997 Buffalo Bills missed the playoffs altogether), so the Seahawks will still be sailing into some uncharted territory, but 50/50 getting to the Super Bowl and 5/12 odds of winning based on previous WEI ain’t bad.