As one of the younger teams in the NFL — atop the heap in terms of recent success — the Seattle Seahawks are thought to be one of the few teams that can rightfully claim to be a dynasty-in-the-making. Perhaps.
And perhaps not. The 2015 Seattle Seahawks may be in a more win-now-before-the-wheels-come-off mode than it appears.
The signs
While the Seahawks are shaping up to again be a top contender in 2015, their long-term prospects are no rosier than any other franchise’s. With a little unpacking, it even appears the long-term future of the blue birds is on the precipice of taking a serious downturn. Probably not into 1992-land, but a future that may see the team without a heart (Marshawn Lynch), soul (Russell Wilson) and brain (Pete Carroll) for ensuing seasons is not out of the question.
Marshawn Lynch’s future
How confident are you that Lynch will suit it up one more time after 2015? Win the Super Bowl and he’ll be too tempted to ride off into that Oakland sunset. Experience the they’ll-never-make-it-three-times-in-a-row comeuppance most NFL observers are expecting, and the handwriting will be on the wall for Seattle’s top ambivalent player.
Recall Lynch contemplated retiring after February’s Super Bowl and was enticed to return with a yet-again sweetened contract ($12M for this season). He also threatened to walk away the previous two offseasons.
The signs say he is all-in on this season. The signs also say he’s not likely to keep going — either by his own determination or the Seahawks’ front office, should he suddenly show signs of slippage, as 29-year-old running backs with high mileage often do.
Russell Wilson’s future
Today is the day we may find out if the line Wilson and his agent, Mark Rodgers, drew was in sand or in concrete. Word from Wilson’s camp is that if he doesn’t get a satisfactory deal by the start of training camp, he’ll play out the final year of his rookie contract and force Seattle’s hand in the next phase of this negotiation after this season concludes.
That day is today. Of course, they may make a deal today. If so, this “doomsday” scenario may be significantly lessened … but not wiped completely away. More on that later.
Much has been written about the state of Wilson’s contract and future with the Seahawks. What remains clear from the spectator’s view is that the Seahawks do not have an answer at quarterback if Wilson — the franchise’s best quarterback talent of all time — is not given a franchise-worthy long-term deal. The Seahawks must secure Wilson or start over.
Can the Seahawks’ organization be so full of hubris that they can blithely turn away a unique talent at the game’s most important position? Franchise quarterbacks + stud running backs + top defense are an exceedingly rare combination in Seahawksland and elsewhere throughout the NFL. The Seahawks know they have a top defense and running back at the moment. Turning away a rare quarterback talent is something the Seahawks have to avoid at all costs.
Think I’m overstating it? Wait until October. Seahawks fans don’t yell “boo!” to scare kids on Halloween. They yell, “Gelbaugh!” or “Stouffer!”
Pete Carroll’s future
Regarding Pete Carroll’s future with the Seahawks, we should read between the widely drawn, indelible lines. With no Lynch in 2016, possibly no Wilson in 2016 or 2017, plus a restricted salary cap situation (radically different than the Seahawks have enjoyed over the past three seasons) the Seahawks are headed for some rebuilding with their hands tied behind their back.
Top-dollar contracts were handed out to Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Michael Bennett and Jimmy Graham chiefly … plus a new top-dollar contract-to-be is in the near future for linebacker Bobby Wagner. If that weren’t enough, the other Legion of Boom stud, Kam Chancellor, is also demanding a new big contract). That’s a lot of cheddar already committed with or without Russell Wilson.
With that much committed to the salary cap, many other front-line players (Kevin Hauschka, Russell Okung, Bruce Irvin, others) will not be retained after 2015. A replacement for Wilson won’t come cheap, either. The Seahawks cannot gamble on striking gold in the middle rounds of the draft again, like they did with Wilson. They will either need to pay a hefty salary to a top draft pick or pay even more for a talented veteran if they have ongoing Super Bowl aspirations.
These are expensive holes to fill when cap space will be tight. Why would Carroll stick around for a rebuilding project, with one hand tied behind his back?
Did you know Pete Carroll recently sold his home? By itself, it doesn’t mean his bags are packed for a one-way ticket out of Seattle. It does, however, indicate that he’s definitely thinking ahead to where he wants to be, rather than remaining comfortable where he is. It would be naïve to assume it doesn’t also apply to his career thinking.
The salary cap situation
Getting to three Super Bowls in a row in today’s NFL is unheard of. The last team to do it was the 1990 – 1993 Buffalo Bills. If the Seahawks are going to pull it off, the window is closing fast. They got off almost impossibly easy in the salary cap (despite shooting themselves in the foot with receivers Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, and quarterback Matt Flynn with megabucks contracts) while simultaneously enjoying Wilson’s minimum wage salary. All the money they weren’t paying Wilson in his first three seasons went to other contracts, much to the chagrin of competing NFL GMs. That magic pill has now been swallowed and digested. The playing field is now level for the Seahawks’ salary cap managers.
If Pete Carroll is sticking around after 2015 he’ll either have to do it with Wilson and a formidable defense (and a new running back / revamped offense), or he will have to do it with a new quarterback (rookie or veteran, TBD), new running back / revamped offense, and a depleted (relatively speaking) defense. Pete Carroll will be 65 on September 15, 2016.
The NFL game is one of replacement and stability. Even if the Seahawks are able to secure Wilson for five or so more seasons, the other pieces must still be in place to produce the desired result: A Super Bowl championship.
Long-term success for any NFL franchise is ensured by having a stable, high-performing quarterback and head coach combination as a fundamental building block. Additionally, the Seahawks rely on the running game as much or more than any other team. With the possible departures of Lynch, Wilson and Carroll, the Seattle Seahawks are shaping up to be a very different type of bird when they take flight in 2016 and beyond.
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