The Ship Didn’t Sink: The Case For Francona To Be AL Manager Of The Year

For the better half of the 2015 regular season, the Cleveland Indians underachieved during what was supposed to be playoff-contending summer. They were the trendy pick for a World Series appearance in Spring Training- a healthy mix of veterans with the young “core” locked up for the foreseeable future had pundits (including myself) certain of at least a Wild-Card birth.

As the season seemed drifted away as the offense sputtered and several key free agents did not contribute (Swisher, Bourn), the Indians struggled to get to the .500 mark and generally stayed around 5-10 games below the mark. To get some dead payroll off the books, they traded both Swisher and Bourn to the Atlanta Braves. It was also around this time that team president Mark Shapiro announced he would become the president and CEO of the Toronto Blue Jays.

At that time, the Indians appeared to be out of the race and talk was shifting to what would happen in the off season. But the Tribe continued to play solid baseball while those around them scuffled.

Francona has taken a group of untested rookies and kept the Indians in the race until the final days. He’s done it without ever truly having a full rotation–which was thought to be the Indians most reliable piece coming into the season–and up until the end of July a group of highly-paid free agents who were highly under-performing.

Add to that the first-half All-Star Jason Kipnis has been a shell of his former self after injury, and some wonder if he returned from the injury too soon (Sound familiar?). Especially with this afternoon’s 3-0 loss over the Minnesota Twins, time is running out. Michael Brantley has been injured most of the season and the Indians are trying to hold it together.

But even with all that, a season that was considered ‘lost’ by many has had its hidden blessings. Frankie Lindor and his march to the AL Rookie of the Year, Josh Tomlin‘s resurrection, the find of Abraham Almonte, and the re-invention of Lonnie Chisenhall. These have become just a few of the reasons why Francona should have no fear of his job security as the Tribe hope to bounce back in 2016.

However, voting for the manager of the year can be tricky because there is no quantifiable method to ranking managers like there are for the players.

What this little thought experiment does is provide some starting point to measure a manager’™s performance and impact on a team’s success or failure. It seems fairly obvious that it takes a real professional and not just any person off the street to coach a big league team, but with that in mind there still seems to be less tangible differences on the surface between each of the thirty managers who currently hold jobs in Major League Baseball. Terry Francona may very well be the best manager in all of baseball, but even if that is the case, his impact on the Cubs’ performance in an individual game or even the team’s performance over a 162-game season may just be negligible. Taking nothing away from Francona and his relationship with, and impact on, his players, there is yet to be any tangible calculation to quantify an either positive or negative impact of a manager on a team’€™s performance in a singular game or a team’s performance over a whole 162-game season.

With that being said, Francona is not likely to be named AL Manager of the Year because attributes such as “not giving up,” “grit,” and “fighting until the end” can not be quantified. Unfortunately, the Indians are very likely to miss the postseason and thus will cost Francona the opportunity to become AL Manager of the Year.

He stood on solid ground during times of challenge.