The Steelers path to the postseason essentially comes down to Sunday’s game against the Ravens. A victory gives the Steelers the AFC North Division title and a home playoff game. The most likely scenario for the Steelers in this case is getting the #3 seed in the playoffs. In order to get the #2 seed and a first round bye, the Steelers would need to win their remaining two games AND have Oakland lose their last two AND have Kansas City split their final two. Oakland faces Indianapolis and Denver while Kansas City faces Denver and San Diego.
In order for the Steelers to fall to the #4 seed, they would have to lose one of their remaining games then lose a tiebreaker to the AFC South Champion. Currently, the Steelers are 1 game ahead of both Houston and Tennessee (who face each other in Week 17). A 1-1 finish by the Steelers would ensure a better conference record than Tennessee (currently 5-5 to the Steelers’ 7-3). The only scenario for the Steelers to win the division but fall to the #4 seed is if Houston beats Tennessee in Week 17. Houston would have to beat Pittsburgh on the Strength of Victory tiebreaker in this case.
However, if the Steelers lose to the Ravens their path to the playoffs becomes increasingly difficult. They could still win the division if the Ravens lost in Cincinnati in Week 17 and the Steelers beat the Browns. Two wins by Baltimore clinches the division title for our hated rivals.
If the Ravens win the division, the Steelers will be in a battle with Kansas City (currently 10-4), Miami (9-5), and Denver (8-6) for the wild card spots. The three AFC South teams – Houston (8-6), Tennessee (8-6), and Indianapolis (7-7) – all have incredibly difficult roads to the Wild Card. None of the AFC South teams have favorable tiebreaker scenarios and in all likelihood the only AFC South team to make the playoffs will be the division champion. The Bills are also still alive at 7-7 but need to win out and get a lot of help to get in.
As for the other three teams, the Steelers have a head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas City but lost head-to-head to Miami. The Dolphins did not play either of the AFC West teams (they faced the Chargers this year) while the Steelers did not play the Broncos. In the event of a three-way tie, head-to-head only comes into account if all three teams have played each other, which is impossible in this scenario. Therefore, in a three-way tie the first tiebreaker would be based on conference record. The Steelers and Chiefs lead the way with 7-3 conference records while Miami is just behind at 6-4 and Denver is the last of the bunch at 5-5.
In addition to the Steelers-Ravens game, this week’s schedule has two other games with massive playoff implications. Miami travels to Buffalo at 1:00pm on Saturday and Denver goes to Kansas City on Sunday Night. The Bills could help the Steelers out for the second straight season (this time by beating the Dolphins). Unfortunately, KDKA is opting to show the Patriots and Jets on Christmas Eve at 1pm rather than the much more meaningful Bills-Dolphins game.
In Week 17, the Ravens-Bengals game will only matter if the Steelers lose to Baltimore this Sunday (though the Ravens could still earn a Wild Card and give us another Steelers-Ravens playoff game). The Patriots-Dolphins game could also be meaningful for the Steelers if they fail to beat Baltimore. Do not count that one as a gimmie since New England has been known to rest their star players in Week 17 after they have home field advantage locked up. The AFC West showdowns (Raiders-Broncos and Chiefs-Chargers) could also be meaningful depending on whether the Steelers are fighting for a first round bye or a wild card spot.
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