The Time Is Now to Lock Up Lindor

The number of truly exceptional all time players in baseball is very limited and often times, it takes years to realize who will ultimately be the best of the best. There are, however, rare times when the moment a player is drafted they are hyped and as they dominate the minors, there is never a question of their ability.

In recent years, there have been a few of these. Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper of the Nationals and Carlos Correa of the Astros to name a few first round picks who have already lived up to the hype. For the Indians, there was excitement around Tyler Naquin, Clint Frazier and Bradley Zimmer, but none more than Francisco Lindor and, after becoming arguably the best overall player for the Indians in 2015, that excitement never decreased.

The Indians have been very proactive in locking up their key players like Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Kipnis and Yan Gomes, but in nearly all cases they waited until the players were at or nearing arbitration. With players looking at significant pay increases and free agency looming in a few years, it makes sense for the team to offer guaranteed money in exchange for a few more years of team control. Prior to this point, the fact that the team can pay the league minimum without risk of losing a player makes them very unlikely candidates for a long term deal.

The exception to this is that truly exceptional player. Mike Trout won Rookie of the Year in 2012 to go along with his Silver Slugger and All-Star Game selection and after repeating the latter two accolades the next season the Angels locked up their superstar for the long haul. He was given a $1M contract for 2014 (in addition to a $5M signing bonus), $5.25M in 2015, $15.25M in 2016, $19.25 in 2017 and $33.25M for 2018 through 2020. Essentially, the Angels got a discount for his arbitration seasons (2015-17) and are going to pay $33.5M per year for his first three years of free agency, a steal given that players like Jason Heyward are getting deals of similar value ($23M per year from 2016 through 2023).

This might not be the fairest comparison as Lindor is unlikely to be a top two MVP candidate in each of his first four full seasons like Trout has been so far, but it also would be unfair to compare him to someone like Kluber, who was signed for an embarrassingly low $64.8M over seven years, of which only $39.3 is guaranteed. Even if the Indians sign Lindor today for the same length, they won’t be able to get that kind of discount as his youth and greater expectations (along with inflation) could easily double that.

Lindor was paid just $540K for the 2016 and will make well under $1M in 2017 if the Indians chose to pay him and it won’t be until 2019 that he gets some rights to argue that value. He won’t be a free agent until 2022. Yes, that’s an extremely long time away, but that’s why signing him now makes so much sense.

There are a few factors at work right now that make this the perfect time. First, while they ended up paying around $100M for the roster in 2016, only $58.8M is guaranteed in 2017 and looking ahead to 2020 only $5.2M is guaranteed through opt outs. If they use all options, they still only have $48.5 under contract for four players, three of which are worth considerably more than they are set to be paid. This is not like the Angels, where hefty contracts to Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols will make it difficult to field a 25 man roster after the extension to Trout or even Minnesota where the Twins owe significant funds to Joe Mauer, Ervin Santana and Phil Hughes for years to come.

In addition to their own contractual flexibility, the increase in inflation in baseball contracts have made nearly all long term deals look good only a few years after signing. Considering Heyward signed for $23M per year, Miguel Cabrera at $31M per season looks cheap. After the best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw, signed for about $31M per year, David Price and Zach Greinke, two good, but no where near as good pitchers, pulled in even more than that. Just looking at Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmermann getting paid more than $20M per season is enough to see that these prices aren’t going anywhere but up.

The third reason is that Lindor’s price isn’t going to go anywhere but up. He has a few more cheap seasons coming, but once he hits arbitration he will be paid like the best short stop in baseball and if they don’t sign him before then, he’ll be looking to make major bank in free agency, especially if front offices continue to place a greater value on defense. In this age, being the best defensive short stop in the game and being able to hit could make him one of the highest paid players in baseball in 2022.

By paying him more up front and guaranteeing him money, Lindor would likely be willing to give up some of that potential cash later on in his career. A drop off in play is unlikely, but possible while the risk of serious injury exists for all players. Signing now would eliminate that worry for Lindor and by taking on that risk, the Indians could decrease the total they will have to pay the future Gold Glove winner. In a few years, that risk will have passed and Lindor will be much less likely to sign such a deal, it is taking advantage of the current situation that makes signing him this or next off-season so pivotal.

Given that the Indians aren’t quite as flush with cash as the Angels and Lindor isn’t quite Trout, a deal somewhere in the line of this could make sense:

This is just a guess based on the contracts signed by Kipnis and Trout given expected inflation and Lindor level of play being between the two. It’s probably off by a lot compared to what will actually happen, but it just provides a reference point. There are also permutations that could help the Indians feel more comfortable, like award and playing time bonuses with lower guaranteed amounts and having the last season or two being option years, but in order for Lindor to take less guaranteed money concessions would have to be made.

While it would be great to pretend that Indians players will continue to sign team friendly deals like those signed in the past, that only works with players who are unsure of their future, like Josh Tomlin coming into the 2016 season and Kluber looking at hitting free agency well past the wrong side of 30. Lindor was drafted young, moved up through the system quickly and has played like an All-Star since making his Major League debut. If the Indians want to keep him longer than his arbitration years, they will have to pay. If they are going to pay, they should do so now to keep that at a minimum and prove to their fans that they really do want to keep this team together for the long term.