The Value of Good Luck

This season, the American League Central Division looks as competitive as it has ever been in its 21 year existence with four teams holding a completely legitimate chance of winning the division outright. Each of the White Sox, Indians, Tigers and Royals have the talent to compete, but will ultimately separate this group this season could end up being luck, particularly in the injury department.

All teams have injuries, but the importance of the injured player will vary. Just yesterday, the Tigers announced that both Justin Verlander, their expected second starter and Bruce Rondon, one of their most dependable relievers in 2014 will both begin the season on the disabled list. In addition, the White Sox are expecting to be without the services of ace Chris Sale until April 12th after he broke his foot last month. For the Indians, it will be starting DH Nick Swisher who will be playing in extended Spring Training.

Injuries like these are easier to deal with early in the season due to the extra off-days, but they may be indicative of the rest of the season. Although none of those players listed above appear to be out for long (both Sale and Swisher played in their first Major League games on Wednesday), these are the players that seem to constantly be dealing with injuries.

In particular, the defending Central champion Tigers look to be the hardest struck. For now, their already diminished rotation (after the loss of ace Max Scherzer during the off-season) will be weakened even more with Anibal Sanchez moving into the two spot behind David Price and Shane Greene, who has made a total of 14 Major League starts in his career, filling in behind him. Newly acquired Alfredo Simon will be the fourth pitcher and he has just one season as a starter behind him. While Verlander is no longer the pitcher he was when he won the triple crown, his presence at the top of Detroit’s rotation will be sorely missed, even if it is for a short period.

Similarly, how much trust can be placed in closer Joe Nathan and Joakim Soria in the bullpen is questionable and the loss of Rondon will likely be felt very quickly. The Tigers combination of age and inexperience in the bullpen could be a very dangerous combination and possibly their undoing, despite their offense. That is assuming that two huge injury risks, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, can manage to stay healthy all year and provide that offense.

For the White Sox, Sale has been often injured during his first few seasons and in fact, most likely lost the Cy Young last year simply because he didn’t throw as many innings as Felix Hernandez or Corey Kluber, but these injuries don’t appear to be systemic. This particular injury was caused when he took a slip getting out of his truck, a situation that will likely not occur again. There is a chance that Sale will change his rotation to adjust for any foot pain, but he states that he is pain free and pitched very effectively in his first start.

In all, the White Sox are a much younger team than the Tigers and not generally encumbered by injury riddled players like those in the motor city. The luck they will have to look out for is a season of regression for players like Jose Abreu, who will be facing the same pitchers for a second season and Jose Quintana, who faces higher expectations after his third quality Major League season. Simply removing Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn from the equation has made Chicago a more athletic and healthy franchise.

The Indians are at a mixed position between Chicago and Detroit. They have older injury risks in Michael Bourn, Brandon Moss, Ryan Raburn and Swisher as well as regression risks in Michael Brantley and Kluber. The positive here is that the rotation is deep enough to sustain some issues (unlike Detroit) and the line-up is versatile enough to fill in for any struggling players. In addition, for the moment, only Swisher seems bothered by any lingering issues from last season.

There is no question that the Central Division will be an exciting one this season with new stars like Jeff Samardzija, Moss, Edinson Volquez and Kendrys Morales in addition to the returning Cy Young caliber pitchers (David Price, Sale, Samardzija and Kluber) and MVP caliber hitters (Martinez, Cabrera, Brantley, Abreu and more). What may end up deciding the final order could be which team is the luckiest, in both injuries (watch your step Chris) and the expected regression after a great season.