The Weekly Scouts Take – Championship Weekend Edition

Tom BradyNow that’s not how you expected it to end, did you?

I know I didn’t.

So what happened?  We’ll look back on those games, plus review the Championship weekend ahead of us.  It was a great weekend in football.  We got another one ahead of us, including some reasons why you shouldn’t believe all the hype about the favorites to be in Dallas in 2 weeks.  The season’s almost over, so let’s hope it goes out with a bang!

 

That was not how Tom Brady and the Patriots pictured their season ending.

Especially Bill Belichick.  Being out coached by Rex Ryan?  The loud-mouth of the AFC East?  All that hype about “it’s the 2nd most important game of the Jets history” and how it wasn’t the Patriots vs. the Jets, it was Belichick vs. Rex…

It looks like Rex wasn’t just talking.

The defensive game plan that was called against the Patriots was brilliant.  It was a great job done by Rex and defensive coordinator Mike Pettine.  Rex challenged his entire coaching staff to come up with new wrinkles in the game plan to keep Tom Brady guessing. 

The Jets all season have been a pressure-hungry type of defense that feeds off rushing passers and creating turnovers. 

On Sunday, they were just the opposite.

They barely rushed the passer.  They were able to get 5 sacks against Tom Brady with rushing 3 or 4 guys total.  Think about that for a second.  They were able to drop 7 or 8 defenders into coverage, only bringing the bare necessities for pressure at the line and were still able to get to Tom.  If that doesn’t speak to a talented defensive line, I don’t know what will.

They confused Tom Brady by never fully settling into their coverage until the ball was snapped.  Always moving, always standing up, then kneeing down, then backing up, then coming forward.  It was a quarterback’s nightmare, because you never had any idea who was going to be the guy who was coming and who wasn’t. 

You have to give credit to one person in particular for their over the top effort:  Shaun Ellis.  He was the Jets’ Nose Tackle that was in Brady’s face all day.  Double Teams, running plays, whatever they directed at him, he was putting to a stop.  He pushed the front of the line back and never gave Brady time to set his feet.  That is my choice for MVP for this game, no question.

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Going on to the rest of Divisional weekend, I believe we saw one of the biggest choke jobs in the Playoffs that there’s been in a long time. 

Joe Flacco, with a 21-3 lead going in at the half, came out for the 2nd half and completely forgot how to play football.  In the Steelers/Ravens matchups, if you are up by 2 possessions, your defense should be turned loose.  Instead, it looked like the defense never came back out of the locker room.

3 forced turnovers in 1 quarter took the Steelers from being down by 3 possessions to up by 3 points with just over 5 minutes left in the 3rd QUARTER… To sum that up properly, the Baltimore offense completely stalled and choked the ball away twice to give the Steelers more than a comfortable sized amount of momentum to carry them to the end of the game. 

I can’t blame the entire 2nd half on Flacco, as there were plenty of other people who were contributing to the Baltimore meltdown.  Anquan Boldin, who clamored on so much about wanting to be a #1 receiver, drops a crucial catch on 3rd down to keep a needed drive alive. 

“The Housh” as everyone in Baltimore likes to call T.J. Houshmandzadeh, dropped the catch that was needed to keep the game alive on their final drive of the game.  I believe what TJ did was worse than Anquan, just because Flacco couldn’t have thrown the ball any better than that and he still dropped it. 

If you want to see a classic meltdown, watch this game.  I’m sure it’ll be on NFL Network for a good while.

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I don’t really think there’s much to say about the Bears/Seahawks game.  Chicago has been a very healthy team all year.  I believe that’s a big reason why they’re still around this late in the postseason.  The wheels fell off for Seattle as everyone just started going down one by one.

With this game, Seattle was riding a big wave of emotion.  On the offensive side of the ball, they were going to be out-matched by the Chicago defense.  The Bears like to make games “ugly”.  They will force you to play yard for yard, hit for hit, until someone finally makes a mistake.

The ‘Hawks weren’t built for that.  They would have had a much better chance in a shootout, since they at least had a somewhat respectable passing game (or it looked like it the week prior.) Instead, they pretty much got man-handled up and down the field.  The defense for the Bears took control early and often and never gave Hasslebeck a chance to settle into a rhythm.  Chicago is very good at making games ugly, and I believe you’ll see another one this week.

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Atlanta, Atlanta, Atlanta…

You guys looked like the most complete team in the NFL entering into the playoffs.  I always said that the Falcons did everything good, but nothing great.  On Saturday night, they looked like they didn’t do anything really good at all.

It was a shame to see them eliminated so quickly.  Atlanta hasn’t had a serious amount of hype surrounding them since Michael Vick took them to the NFC Championship almost 8 years ago.  This is one of those teams that hasn’t had a lot of success, so it’s always a feel-good story to see them get somewhere and look like they’re ready to contend with the top teams in the NFL. 

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and that Packers squad looks unstoppable. Rodgers is playing at a ridiculous level, completing 78% of his passes this postseason.  The defense is rushing the passer better than any team that entered the Playoffs, and they look like they’re on a crash course for Dallas. 

I never wanted to claim that Rodgers was an “elite” QB.  I will admit, he’s playing like one right now.  Of course, everything he’s done up to this point will be for naught if he doesn’t get them to the Super Bowl.  Are you built for it, Rodgers? 

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Last week, I went a god-awful 1-3.  I really believed in the Ravens, Pats, and Falcons all holding their ground and they all let me down.  One thing has been consistent all year, is that parity owns this season.  The favorites are the Packers and the Steelers, which means one of them isn’t making it to Dallas…who is it?  We’ve got the final 4 left, so lets look at who wins this week and why…

 

 

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Ugly weather, rough turf, nasty day for football.  This is right up Chicago’s alley.  But the Pack is no stranger to ugly weather. They play in horrible weather, in one of the coldest stadiums in the NFL.  So what gives this weekend?

Green Bay Wins If: They can give Aaron Rodgers time to throw.  The front 4 of the Chicago defense is arguably the best defensive line right now in football.  They only need to bring 4 to collapse the pocket.  If they can keep Peppers under control and establish some kind of run game to keep the defensive line from just going head first at the QB every time, Green Bay has the arsenal to beat the Bears.  Defensively, they have a great secondary to take advantage of when Cutler throws that errant throw (which we all know is coming.)  Clay Matthews can single handedly take this game over against a very shaky Chicago Bears offensive line.

Chicago Wins If: They hit Aaron Rodgers.  A lot.  He’s been concussed twice this season.  This turf is going to be like playing on concrete.  They need to hit him early and often.  The more they get contact, the quicker he’s going to try and dump that ball off.  This Bears defense is of a Super Bowl caliber.  They can take games over and win them on their own.  If they can make Green Bay’s offense play “ugly football”, then this is the type of game that the Bears can win.  Oh yeah, they have one other big advantage:  Devin Hester.  He turns field position battles around all the time. If Green Bay kicks to him, they’ll regret it. 

Final Decision:  The weather in Chicago is calling for an ugly day; temperatures in the teens, windy, and cloudy.  Which means running the ball, playing good defense, and winning the field position game should ultimately win this game, right?   Sounds a lot like how the Bears are built.   They play great defense, they play great special teams, and I like Matt Forte much more than I like James Starks.  So why am I picking the Packers to win this?  Because they’re on a roll right now.  Green Bay’s defense is faster than Chicago’s.  Plus I think that if Rodgers can stay upright, he’ll make one more play than Jay Cutler and that’s all it will take in a low scoring, defensive battle.  Green Bay advances by a score of 14-10.

 

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

Rex isn’t talking this week.  And supposedly, the Jets aren’t either.  They have nothing but respect for Mike Tomlin and this strong Pittsburgh team.  This is a great matchup.  Both teams have offenses that can rack points up.  They both have defenses that can take over games.  As far as special teams, I have to give the edge to New York.  So who wins it?

New York Wins if: Shaun Ellis plays like he did last week.  They would be foolish to send the house at Big Ben, because he thrives on making plays against pressure.  He’s a big guy and very difficult for a defense to bring down.  The game plan that worked against the Pats can apply here too.  Ben can spot the holes when you send an extra rusher or two at him and make the throw.  So make him spot the holes when you have 8 defensive backs on the field.  He’s never been known as a pocket passer, so force him to be one.  Play the line of scrimmage hard, push the pile back, and don’t let Ben scramble. 

Pittsburgh wins if:  They force Mark Sanchez to win the game.  I said this last week and the Patriots made him look like Joe Namath back there.  Sanchez was electric, making all the right throws and clearly out-dueling Tom Brady.  Difference here, is that you’re playing against the Pittsburgh defense now.  You won’t run against these guys.  They were fortunate last time in racking up 106 yards on the ground in their first meeting.  Now, with Damien Woody done for the year and a rookie backup RT coming in to replace him, watch for this to be exploited.  They’ll make Sanchez throw and take the run game away early.  Once he’s throwing, they can rush the passer as well as anyone else in the game right now.  This will be the secure Pittsburgh way of playing football.

Final Decision: I said someone who was expected to win was going to lose, didn’t I?  I’m not sure how many people have paid attention to the Jets this postseason, but they’ve been getting motivational speeches from a guy by the name of Dennis Byrd. For those that forgot who Byrd was, he was a former DT for the Jets who broke his neck back in the early 1992 season against the Bills.  He was able to finally walk again, but his football career was over.  His struggle to overcome paralysis and walk again earned him the namesake of the “Most Inspirational Player Award”, now titled the Dennis Byrd Award.  He’s been with the team since before the Patriots game and he’s an honorary captain this week against the Steelers.  He sent Rex Ryan his torn jersey from the day he broke his neck, along with a letter of inspiration for the Jets.  Rex immediately was so honored, he asked him to come speak to the team himself.  His impact alone on the team has had resounding effects that every player has admitted to feeling.  When a team who’s as good as they are plays against another team who’s equally good, it’s tough to pick.  When a team who’s that good that has a serious story of inspiration standing behind them, it’s hard to stop them.  The Jets seem like they’re on a crash course with destiny, just like the Packers.  I expect to see Gang Green vs the Cheeseheads in Dallas in 2 weeks, final score of 24-14.

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