The Minnesota Timberwolves are defying our expectations as their young stars grow up before our eyes
Low Expectations
Last year, the Minnesota Timberwolves kicked off a multi-year rebuilding project when they shipped out disgruntled star Kevin Love to the Cleveland Cavaliers. In return, they received the last two #1 overall picks in Anthony Bennett and Andrew Wiggins, as well as Thaddeus Young (who was later flipped to Brooklyn for former Minnesota hero Kevin Garnett) and a first rounder from Cleveland. Injuries to most of their veterans caused them to spiral from competitive to worst in the league, and their top lottery odds netted them the #1 overall pick and Karl-Anthony Towns, the draft’s top big man. The Cleveland pick turned into Duke point guard Tyus Jones, and he joined veterans Andre Miller and Tayshaun Prince in adding to the Minnesota roster this offseason, while Bennett and others were let go. Euroleague standout Nemanja Bjelica came over from Europe to join a loaded frontcourt rotation, and Minnesota set out on year two of their rebuilding process.
Preseason picks by the Internet’s “experts” were collectively down on the T-Wolves. Various websites had the team winning anywhere from 22 to 24 wins by human voters to the lofty heights of 29 wins by computer models. Many NBA previews spoke of the Timberwolves adding one more piece after this season before beginning their rise this year. It appears no one told the actual team they were supposed to wait one more year.
Bad? Not So Much
While the Timberwolves are not beating teams by 50 (sorry Memphis), they are certainly out-performing early projections. Even after facing the juggernaut Warriors Thursday night, Minnesota ranks a respectable 15th in offensive rating and 10th in points scored; they are also 11th in true shooting percentage, 6th in rebound percentage, and 8th in assist percentage. They rank 4th in points per shot! They’re also getting to the line, ranking 4th in personal fouls drawn and 3rd in free throws attempted. On defense, the Wolves are 19th in defensive rating (they were actually top-10 before facing the Warriors), 19th in points against, and 13th in opponent field goal percentage. This is not a bottom of the barrel team, but one that is inserting itself fully into the middle of the Western Conference pack. They rank 7th in the Western Conference in point differential, and if the season ended today, they would miss out on the playoffs by a tiebreaker. (Editor’s note: All rankings effective as of the morning of Friday, November 13th) Why are the Wolves playing so much better than expected? The answer to that lies within a unique blending of young guns, crafty vets, and the most creative passer in the game.
Wise Beyond Their Years
The core of this team is very young, but they’re playing like they’re much older. Andrew Wiggins picked up where he left off at the end of last season, scoring the basketball from all areas of the court. He leads the team in scoring with twenty points per game, and this is happening even when his fellow wing starter is Tayshaun Prince, meaning Wiggins is getting the other team’s best wing defender every single night. While there are some possessions that he holds onto the ball searching for a shot when a pass can be made, he’s developed good chemistry with Karl-Anthony Towns and Zach LaVine and has shown he can score from anywhere in the half court. And he’s only twenty years old.
Karl-Anthony Towns has decided he cares nothing about rookie learning curves, as he has come out looking like a five-year pro. He is the only NBA teen to put up six double-doubles in his first eight games, and ranks behind only David Robinson and Shaquille O’Neal in the last 30 years in number of double-doubles in his first eight (Shaq put up 12 straight if you’re wondering). Going into the game against the Warriors, the Timberwolves were 23 points worse on defense per 100 possessions when Towns sat. He’s got his eyes set on back-to-back trophies for the Wolves – Rookie of the Year trophies, to be clear.
Other young players are stepping up as well. Nominal rookie Nemanja Bjelica is playing just behind Kevin Garnett in the rotation, and his Plus/Minus stats lead the team. He’s opening up the floor as a stretch four and showing off the game that won him MVP in Europe last season. Shabazz Muhammad is leaner than he’s been since before college, and he’s showing off his scoring touch as an energetic bench scorer. Zach LaVine has been moved between the two guard positions, and while he’s made a number of mistakes running the point, he’s also shown good passing vision and made a number of solid plays in the Atlanta game that stood out.
Finally, Ricky Rubio is leading the team in PER, is second in the NBA in assists, and is absolutely dogging people on defense (5th in the league in steals). While he’s missed some time with a sore hamstring, when he’s been on the court, he’s looked like a player interested in being a part of this team’s long-term future. He single-handedly took over the game down the stretch against the Lakers, and he’s displayed a more confident jump shot than ever before.
Moving Forward
The Timberwolves’ unique strategy of pairing experienced, even washed-up veterans, with their young stars has seemed to pay off. Players like Wiggins and Towns have shown maturity on and off the court, and they are playing at an extremely high level. They went into Atlanta and confidently halted the Hawks’ seven-game win streak, and also notched impressive wins in Denver and Chicago (in an interesting quirk, the Wolves are 4-0 on the road and 0-4 at home). While they lost in the end by thirteen to the Warriors, they fought back from an early deficit to get the game within five during the fourth quarter. This is a team that believes in themselves, and is throwing their name into the ring in the West for one of those final two playoff spots. Health is the key for this team; if Rubio and Wiggins can stay on the court, the Timberwolves will win more games than most – if not all – expected. I especially like their fast-paced lineup of Rubio, LaVine, Wiggins, Bjelica, and Towns. While this team isn’t going to face Golden State in the Western Conference Finals, they are going to be fun to watch all season long. And they’re finding success without mortgaging any of their long-term health. As frisky as this team is going to be this season, they’re going to be downright scary down the road.
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