Thinking about the “skill position” mix and the gameday 46

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SELF-PUBLICITY NOTE: Football Outsiders Almanac 2015, the annual tome previewing all 32 NFL teams, plus the college football season put out by Football Outsiders, is now available. I was a contributor for the sixth consecutive season, writing the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and, yes, once again, Tennessee Titans chapters. The PDF is currently available from the Football Outsiders website, while the dead tree version is now on Amazon. Buy it, buy it, buy it! /end plug  

After yesterday’s center positional analysis concluded the offensive half of our trip around the Tennessee Titans position by position as we head into the 2015 offseason (previous stops: quarterback, running back, fullback, wide receiver, tight end, offensive tackle, and guard), I could use this day before the first preseason game but wanted to deal with an issue I sort of papered over that will actually matter.

In the RB and WR positional analyses, plus my preseason roster prediction, I pretty much assumed the 2015 Tennessee Titans roster-wise would look pretty much the same as the 2014 Tennessee Titans. I think I had good reasons for that, especially with the historical look at what Whisenhunt rosters have looked like, but it started to bother me some when I was writing up the positional analyses.

Here’s what the Titans active roster looked like last year at RB and WR:

RB: 4 (2x), 5 (12x), 6 (2x)
WR: 3 (2x), 4 (11x), 5 (3x)
RB+WR: 8 (1x), 9 (13x) 10 (2x)

Here’s another way of looking at similar information based on the modal lineup:

Committee RB
Committee RB
Satellite back, punt returner
Third down back, kick returner
Fullback, core special teams player
Starting receiver
Starting receiver
Starting receiver
Fourth receiver, core special teams player

There could be some tinkering at the margins, but some of the week-to-week roster changes suggest at least a basic continuity of roles seems like a reasonable expectation. Obviously players at other positions can return, but I think from this group of players the Titans would like to get two players who play a lot of the special teams snaps, their punt returner, and their kick returner. One of those special teamers is easy to identify, as the Titans have indicated Jalston Fowler will play a lot on special teams, just as Jackie Battle did last year.

Of the other three jobs, core special teams player, punt returner, and kick returner, only the punt returner is easy to identify. Figuring out who might be a core special teams player is a harder problem. In the wide receiver positional analysis, I was very skeptical about the possibility of all three of Hakeem Nicks, Justin Hunter, and Dorial Green-Beckham being active each week because none of the three seems like a special teams player (and Kendall Wright and Harry Douglas will be active and aren’t special teams players unless the Titans get overly cute). Nicks did not play special teams at all last year, nor did Hunter, and as a raw rookie I strongly doubt the Titans will want DGB as a core special teams player.

One partial solution would be for Dexter McCluster to be the kick returner as well. This is what the depth chart is suggesting. While I’m not thrilled with the idea because of McCluster’s lackluster record when he’s returned kicks in the past, I do not see any options I really like and am resigned to 2009-like mediocrity, possibly with a similarly large committee. But that still leaves the need to find a core special teams player from among the backs and receivers.

Just because he’s done a little bit of at at the NFL level, my favorite for that job is Antonio Andrews. He didn’t do it much, some of it was his kick return snaps, and even at the end of the season the Titans weren’t just putting him out there on special teams to see what happened the same way they weren’t giving him the ball to see what happened instead of letting Shonn Greene lead the team in carries one final time. We’ll see in preseason if he indeed does play special teams, or if anybody else at running back and receiver does.

If a reserve receiver like Tre McBride is to not just make the team but suit up regularly, it’ll be because he is that second core special teams player. If the Titans don’t find a player to fill that job from among their backs and receivers, they’ll have to find one somewhere else. There will be options, but backups at the most likely positions (tight end, defensive backs, linebacker) are already special teams players. More likely, it would mean a starter playing more, and the Titans would probably prefer to avoid that. But, sometimes, you’re out of good options and don’t really have much choice. I hope that’s not the case, but it might be.

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