On August 20th, the Pirates were 64-62. They had lost seven in a row and dropped like a rock in the NL Central and NL wild card races. They were seven games behind the Brewers in the Central and 2 1/2 behind the Giants for the second wild card, though they were in fourth place in the wild card race. On the night of the 20th, the Pirates came back from a 2-0 deficit against the Braves to end their losing streak, then headed to Milwaukee. In each post that weekend, I put the above image up, saying basically that if the Pirates were going to turn their season around, that it had to start in Milwaukee.
The Pirates won the first two games in Milwaukee that weekend, and have only slowed down once since then. They’re 18-8 since that seven game losing streak. They haven’t made up much ground on the Cardinals, but they’ve completely flipped the script in the wild card race. After last night, the Pirates have a 3 1/2 game lead on the Brewers for the second wild card with ten games left on the schedule.
What that means is this: if the Pirates win just one of three games against the Brewers this weekend, they can still cruise on into the second wild card against the dormant Braves and Reds next week. If they win more than one game against the Brewers, well, just because they can’t officially clinch doesn’t mean that the Pirates can’t make this weekend a big ol’ party at PNC.
I should be clear: it is certainly still possible that the Pirates will fall on their faces this weekend. They have done it more than once at big junctures this season, and they already did it once this month, even with that shiny 18-8 record (three of those losses came in one series to the Cardinals, when one win in that series could have the Pirates within a half-game of first place). They’re starting Jeff Locke, Edinson Volquez, and Vance Worley, which is definitely the bottom part of the Pirate rotation at this point (Worley will start over Charlie Morton, who has not recovered well from his Tuesday start). I understand the recent history between the Pirates and Brewers, too, of course.
All of this being said, we should also be rational. In the last month, the Pirates have been the NL’s best team at 18-8, while the Brewers have been the NL’s worst at 8-19. The Pirates have been 10 1/2 games better than the Brewers in that span. The Pirates are obliterating the baseball right now, just crushing anyone who dares send subpar pitching to the mound against them. The Brewers have subpar pitching. These are important games, yes, and the Pirates need to win at least one of them for sure, and the Pirates certainly could lose all three games this weekend, but there’s no reason to expect them to do so at this point.
Anyway, the Pirates have won 18 of 26 and 11 of 13 and four in a row. The Brewers suffered a devastating 12-inning loss to the Cardinals last night and made it to Pittsburgh at about 4 AM. Jeff Locke starts for the Pirates. He’s been all over the place lately. Two starts ago, he struck out nine Phillies and walked none in seven innings one-run innings. Last time out, the Cubs knocked him around and he couldn’t really find the strike zone and he got pulled after 5 1/3 in a 6-3 Pirate loss. It is certainly possible that the outcome of this game will hinge upon whether or not Jeff Locke can throw strikes. He will face Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo has been all over the map this year, but he hasn’t pitched well at all lately. The Pirates saw him last month and touched him up for eight hits and six runs (three earned) in five innings.
This is the biggest series of the year for the Pirates, and if they do their job, it’ll stay that way. First pitch is at 7:05.
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