Some More Thoughts on Nick Foligno

In yesterday’s Salary Project post, I took a look at Nick Foligno (as well as Scott Hartnell and Ryan Johansen). In it, I advocated for letting Nick Foligno walk after this season. That isn’t sitting particularly well with me right now. See, I love Nick Foligno. He’s probably number three on my list of favorite Jackets players (behind Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Murray). He seems like a great guy, he works hard, he does a lot of little things pretty well. So looking at comparable players around the league in terms of his age and offensive production, and seeing what the market was for those players was a little disappointing. I wasn’t expecting anyone outstanding to show up, but wasn’t expecting the kinds of guys still sitting as unrestricted free agents either.So this creates a bit of a dilemma. Nick Foligno is making $3.75m this season in salary, and will be an unrestricted free agent after the season. He just set a career high in goals, and probably had his second best season in the NHL. I highly doubt he would be willing to take a pay cut when signing an extension before the season starts. So that means to get him under contract in 2015 and beyond would cost upwards of $4m annually. I love Foligno, but he is not a $4m player. Eight players are currently starting contracts or extensions signed as unrestricted in 2014 between $3.625m and $4.25m:

• Matt Read ($3.625m, 75 GP, 22G, 18 A, 40 Pts in 2013-14, 111 Pts in 196 games last three years)
• Chris Kunitz ($3.85m, 78 GP, 35 G, 33 A, 68 Pts in 2013-14, 181 Pts in 208 games last three years)
• Milan Michalek ($4m, 82 GP, 17 G, 22 A, 39 Pts in 2013-14, 113 Pts in 182 games last three years)
• Jussi Jokinen ($4m, 81 GP, 21 G, 36 A, 57 Pts in 2013-14, 125 Pts in 203 games last three years)
• Ales Hemsky ($4m, 75 GP, 13 G, 30 A, 43 Pts in 2013-14, 99 Pts in 182 games last three years)
• Benoit Pouliot ($4m, 80 GP, 15 G, 21 A, 36 Pts in 2013-14, 88 Pts in 188 games last three years)
• Nikolai Kulemin ($4.1875m, 70 GP, 9 G, 11 A, 20 Pts in 2013-14, 71 Pts in 188 games last three years)
• Brian Gionta ($4.25m, 81 GP, 18 G, 22 A, 40 Pts in 2013-14, 81 Pts in 160 games last three years)

Now Nick Foligno finished with 18 goals, 21 assists for 39 points in 70 games last year, and has 105 points in 197 games the last three years. Nick Foligno doesn’t look out of place in that group of players. You could pretty easily justify playing him that much. A couple things bother me about that list. First, aside from the outlier (Kunitz), none of those guys play for good teams. Dallas might be pretty solid this year, but a lot of that depends on Hemsky and Spezza maintaining their play together from last in Ottawa’s season last year. Philadelphia made the playoffs last year, but I doubt they will again this year. Maybe the Isles slip in with some better goaltending, but still. I would be pretty surprised if anyone other than Kunitz won a playoff round this season. Why is this? Without looking too much into it, my gut reaction is that good teams can’t afford to pay this kind of money to this caliber of player. Second thing about that list: they all seem to be second/third line tweeners, or third liners who are great penalty killers (minus Kunitz). Were Foligno a great penalty killer (or even just a penalty killer at all) I wouldn’t be against this kind of deal. But I honestly think Foligno would be a third line player on a contending team. I don’t think he’d be more than an injury replacement on the powerplay. He doesn’t kill penalties. So on a contending team, he’d be a guy taking a regular third line shift. He’d be absolutely fantastic at it, would probably be one of the better even strength third liners in the league, but I’ m not sure it’s worth the money. The roster spot might be better suited to try out one of the first round pick forwards, or filled with a veteran on a one year deal.

However, this is all based on Foligno maintaining his current level of play. It’s also speculation based on an extension right now. He had a pretty tough year off the ice last season. He is very good with Ryan Johansen, and I would have those two paired up together at even strength at all times this year. If he can step up his even strength production, he could easily play himself into the class of player who deserves over $4m per season. I wouldn’t go about dumping him, or anything like that. I would simply let him and Johansen start off the season together (hopefully with Hartnell on their wing), and hopefully by November he’ll have done enough to earn the extension he’s looking for. A handful more goals and assists and you are talking a 20 goal, 50 point player, and that would definitely be worth keeping around.