Thoughts on the Dave Cameron/Mike Hoffman Controversy

Under any other set of circumstances, winning a game in which your best goal scorer clinched victory by lighting the lamp for the 11^th time in 11 games would be cause for celebration.

In Ottawa, it only created controversy because of the conditions in which it was scored.

Mike Hoffman is not only the Senators’ leading goal scorer, he is tied for fourth in the league in goals (15) and has been one of the most productive even strength scorers over the past two seasons.

He’s pretty damn good.

So when head coach Dave Cameron took Hoffman off the top line with about three minutes to go in the second period and relegated him to the third line to play with a unit that has struggled all season long, it raised some eyebrows.

Cameron, explained to the media after the game that the move was designed to move Hoffman down the lineup and create matchup problems where he could take advantage of being away from the opposition’s best defenders. (Note: the following Cameron quotes come via Ian Mendes’ piece on TSN.ca.)

“I didn’t think my top line had its A-game and I was a little worried with the game on the line about them being a little too high-risk.”

It is a fair point.

As the coach, if he has concerns about the carelessness with which the top line is playing, he can do one of two things: 1) he can communicate that message to his players; or 2) if he believes that the message may fall on deaf ears, he’s well within his right to juggle the lineup to send another response.

Although Hoffman-Turris-Ryan were only credited with one giveaway (Turris’), they were on the wrong side of the possession game at even strength.

Here is the breakdown of Hoffman’s even strength ‘with or without you’ (WOWY) numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com:

None of these shot attempts culminated in a goal against, but it’s totally fair to say that the trio did not have their best game going.

So the fact that Hoffman got bumped off his line and scored the game-winning goal meant that Cameron’s gamble paid off.

In a vacuum, everything worked out. Hoffman scored and the Senators won the game.

The problem is that hockey decisions and events rarely play out in a vacuum.

It’s one thing to bump Hoffman off the top line, but it’s another to bury one of the most effective goal scorers in the league in favour of playing a natural defenceman on the first line with Turris and Ryan.

“I knew Boro would be safe and be physical and give them energy and would allow the other two guys to do some work. Same as last year; you move Hoff down onto another line and he’s not against their best players and it worked tonight.”

“Safe” is an interesting choice of word. If you want a player who will dump the puck into the opposition’s end and look like he’s working hard battling for loose pucks in the defensive end, then Borowiecki is safe. The problem for Borowiecki is that for all of his hard work and effort within the defensive zone, all his actions don’t really culminate with too many positive outcomes because he struggles to handle the puck and move it effectively. The end result is a player who’s constantly defending because he spends the majority of his time within the defensive end.

I mean, there’s a reason why Mark Borowiecki is at the bottom of the defencemen 5v5 rankings in shots for percentage (42.4, 4^th-worst mark), shot attempt percentage (42.6, 6^th-worst) and goals for percentage (35.3, tied for 7^th-worst) and it’s not because he’s “safe”. It’s because he’s not very good.

By promoting him to the top line, not only are you sending a message to Hoffman that his play wasn’t good enough, you’re sending one hell of a message to the rest of the forwards who weren’t “safe” enough to merit consideration for the top line.

And to go one step further, Borowiecki wasn’t even playing well. Not only did he help blow coverage on the game’s first goal and fail to pick up his assignment after Patrick Wiercioch’s pinch, when he was on the ice last night, the Senators did not even generate a single shot attempt. Not one.

The sad thing is that Borowiecki was only on the ice with Turris and Ryan for one minute and 55 seconds last night. During this time, the Senators gave up six shot attempts without registering one of their one.

Borowiecki never should have merited consideration for the top line, but because he did and got that ice time, it gives you some insight into how the Senators’ coaching staff evaluates their players (and really, fans should know this from their willingness to bury Hoffman repeatedly on the fourth line down the stretch last season as the games became more important), they are averse to risk. It’s why guys like Wideman, Prince, Wiercioch and Hoffman have spent considerable time playing behind lesser players who fit this “safe” archetype that Cameron seems to love.

Fortunately, Cameron’s gamble paid off and Hoffman said all the right things to the media, but if it reinforces dumb principles and Cameron continues to elect for conservative alternatives, eventually it’s going to bite the Senators in the ass.