Happy Thursday to you Followers. Hope you’re having a good week.
Well, since things are a bit slow during the mighty rivalry week, I thought I’d re-post some info that I put up last Saturday.
So, in case you missed my one of a kind analysis (cough! cough!), then click on the old jumperoo.
(The following is not a complete re-hash, by the way).
While most of the discussion here and elsewhere has focused on how the play of Klay, Casto, and Moore relates to our success as a team, I became interested over the weekend in looking at how the play of other guys on the team related to our success (or lack thereof) in conference play.
So, here is what I did:
1) I added up the points scored from both Capers and Aden in each conference game as the measure of production from the 3 spot.
2) I added up the points scored from Motum, Abe, and Simon in each conference game as the measure of production from the 4 spot.
Here are the findings (updated through ASU):
- When we get 10 points or more combined from both the 3 and the 4 spot, our conference record is 5-1.
- When our production from the 4 spot is 10 points or more, our conference record is 5-5.
- When our production from the 3 spot is 10 points or more, our conference record is 7-3.
(now lets get to the “low” production numbers).
- When we get less than 10 points from both the 3 and the 4 spot, our conference record is 0-1.
- When our production from the 4 spot is less than 10 points, our conference record is 2-3.
- When our production from the 3 spot is lesss than 10 points, our conference record is 0-5.
What this tells us is that the combined offensive production from Capers and Aden is really important to our chances of winning. And, as importantly, when Capers and Aden do not produce–as we saw in both games last weekend–we do not win. At least not to this point (we’re 0-5).
The final takeaway, for now, is what happens when we have really good balance–meaning that we get at least 10 points combined from both the 3 and the 4 spot. In those instances, we sport a very nice 5-1 record in conference.
So, as we head into this weekend’s Oscar night tilt against the Muttlakes, we should all be very, very glad to hear that Aden is back at practice.
Simply put, if the trend holds (which they often do at this point), the return of Aden (and perhaps the re-emergence of Capers) may be all that is needed for us to win 2 out of the next 3 (10+ from the 3 spot = a .700 conference winning percentage). Do that, and we’ll finish at 9-9 and have at least a pulse heading into the conference tournament.
Quick Peek At The Muttlake Game:
Expect to see us play the exact type of game we did last time. No guys on the offensive glass while everyone sprints to get back in transition. Beyond that, here are my main keys:
1. Keep Your Feet. Said this the last time and its true again. MBA is a killer when he gets guys in the air. Stay on the ground, and he becomes quite average–even out of control–with his back to the basket. Casto MUST stay on the ground for this one. Lets hope he does.
2. Backcourt Size. Others may disagree, but I’ve always felt that our size advantage in the backcourt can really cause Washington problems. I’m looking for Aden to have another big performance against the Dawgs, and I’m hoping that Reggie takes it at Overton morning, noon, and night. If he can get Venoy in foul trouble, this game will be a barn burner.
3. Iced T. The X-factor for the game is Terrance Ross. Last game, he played pretty well against us. Well, with Suggs out in the is one, Ross looms as a real X factor. If he goes over 15, I think we’re done. (as in blow-out city).
4. Baseline. Last game, the Huskies attacked only up the middle of our zone and did so with limited success (as if 80+ points was limited!). In this one, I expect them to really attack us from the baseline, where guys like Abe and Motum are really vulnerable to Washington’s athletic slashers. How Bone decides to set us up for this adjustment will be a really interesting facet of this game.
5. Shooting. I know that this is a big duh, but long rebounds from missed jumpers are what gets teams like Washington out on the fast track. So, if we’re going to stay in this one, we’re going to have to shoot it really well. And of course, that means ball movement on the perimeter as well as in and out of the post.
Prediction: On one hand it seems as if this WSU team is done. However, judging by Klay’s shooting performance over the weekend coupled with Abe’s recent hot streak, I think this team is going to toy with us a bit more before we ultimately fall short.
Mind you, a 96-67 type blow-out for the Dawgs would not surprise me one bit. But, there’s just a huge part of me that thinks that we’re going to pull this one out–making last weekend’s games even that much more painful for all of Cougar nation as we head into March.
WSU 80 Washington 75.
Go Cougs!
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