TicketCity Bowl Preview: Houston vs Penn State

Houston Cougars (12-1 overall, 8-1 in Conference USA)

Most impressive victory: 37-7 vs. SMU (Nov. 19)

Only loss: 28-49 vs. Southern Miss in conference championship (Dec. 3)

Notable alumni: Doug Drabek, Clyde Drexler, Robert Flores, Kevin Kolb, Tom Landry, Dennis Quaid, Randy Quaid, Dan Rather and Kenny Rogers

When you tune-in the TicketCity Bowl, you’ll get two games for the price of one, although one should be much better contested: The Cougar offense against the Nittany Lion defense.

Houston boasts the No. 1 overall offense in the FBS, averaging just less than 600 yards per game (444 passing and 155 rushing). The Cougars are led by QB Case Keenum (5,099 yards, 45 TDs, 5 INTs) a fifth-season player (medical redshirt) who was in the hunt for the Heisman Trophy until his team lost the C-USA championship game in early December. That loss cost the team a BCS bowl berth as well.

Keenum’s favorite targets are senior WRs Patrick Edwards (1,524 yards, 19.3 average, 18 TDs), Justin Johnson (1,081 yards, 11 TDs) and Tyron Carrier (914 yards, 5 TDs). The Cougars two top RBs are also very capable receivers as well: sophomore Charles Sims (545 yards, 4 TDs receiving and 782 yards, 9 TDs rushing) and senior Michael Hayes (472 yards, 4TDs receiving and 707 yards, 11 TDs rushing).

Former assistant Tony Levine was promoted to the head coach position recently with Kevin Sumlin’s departure to Texas A&M.

The Houston defense (ranked 61^st nationally) leaves something to be desired, averaging 172 rushing yards against but having surrendered 200 yards rushing to opponents five times this season. That said they’ve made stops when necessary to secure a one-loss season to date.

The Cougars are 8-11-1 all time in bowl appearances. Their last game was a loss to Air Force, 47-20, in the Armed Forces Bowl, Dec. 31, 2009.

Pennsylvania State University Nittany Lions (9-3 overall, 6-2 in Big 10 Conference)

Most impressive victory: 20-14 at Ohio State (Nov. 19)

Worst loss: 45-7 at Wisconsin (Nov. 26)

Notable alumni: LaVar Arrington, Todd Blackledge, John Cappelletti, Franco Harris, Matt Millen, Mike Munchak, Paul Pasqualoni and Rick Santorum

All is not happy in Happy Valley these days. Penn State was in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons during 2011: most notably the indictment on molestation charges of former defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky and the dismissal of coaching legend Joe Paterno in the wake of that scandal. The specter of disgrace follows the program into the postseason – an unfortunate situation for the players who had nothing to do with the Sandusky situation. If that were not enough, a locker room brawl between the team’s leading QB, Matt McGloin, and WR Curtis Drake allowed the public to see the level of frustration among the players. McGloin was injured severely enough that he will be unable to start against Houston. Beyond these two incidents, the team also has been unable to secure a new head coach. The turmoil is very steep in this program that, for decades, was an icon of stability.

Despite the off-field frustrations, the Nittany Lions had a good record. As is the case typically, the Penn State defense is fundamentally sound and the basis for the team’s success. The 10^th ranked defensive unit has been particularly effective against the pass, holding opponents to an average of 162 yards per game (5^th best nationally). As solid as that performance has been, the Nittany Lions have not faced as proficient a pass offense as Houston’s this season.

The Penn State offense will be controlled by sophomore QB Rob Bolden in McGloin’s absence. Bolden has played in a tandem arrangement with McGloin through the season, but has not been as effective as his counterpart (548 yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs vs. 1,571 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs). Senior WR Derek Moye leads all receivers with 654 yards and 3 TDs. The running game is led by sophomore RB Silas Redd (1,188 yards, 7 TDs) from my home state of Connecticut. The Lions will need a big game from Redd, even though the Houston defense likely will load the box against the run.

Penn State is one of the most successful teams in bowl game history with an all-time record of 27-14-2. Its last outing was a loss however, 37-24, against Florida in the Outback Bowl, Jan. 1, 2011.

THE PICKS:

Pete: Houston is favored to win by a touchdown. Given the Penn State offense’s struggles throughout the year however, and the ability for Houston to strike swiftly, the point difference should be substantially greater. Penn State is unlikely to shed the bad aura that has plagued them recently, and that will compound its current on-field troubles. Look for Houston to take a lot of chances deep to test the Penn State secondary and showcase Case Keenum in his last college game.

Houston 31, Penn State 13

Kevin: If this game happened before all of the controversy hit Penn State and their world was turned up-side down I would take the Nittany Lions in this one. Houston really struggled with a Southern Miss defense that is not as good as Penn State’s. The problem is that the Penn State program is in complete disarray and their offense is not going to score enough points to win this game.

Houston 28 Penn State 17