Beyond breaking down the visits like I did in my previous post, another of the staples of my pre-draft coverage has been a breakdown of the Titans’ chances of drafting a player at each position. In the past, I’ve done separate posts for offense and for defense (links to 2014 versions), giving an estimate of the Titans’ need at each position, a brief analysis, a probability, and some players the Titans might be interested in, including visitors, players they’d worked out or interviewed, or players I just thought might fit what they might be interested in. To make my life a little simpler this year, I’ll be streamlining the process a little bit, limiting the length of the analysis and not trying to come up with a range of players they might target.
As I’ve mentioned in past years, if the draft probabilities at any individual position look high to you, they probably look high to me as well. The Titans have 7 picks, so I wanted the sum of my probabilities to add up to 6.5. Like most years, my initial run-through came up short of that, so I had to boost various probabilities to get there.
Quarterback
Need at position: Moderate to high
Analysis: Ruston Webster said early in the offseason the Titans wanted to add a quarterback to create competition in the group. They haven’t done so yet. The only place where I think that makes sense is by selecting Marcus Mariota at #2. Was the pre-draft press conference a bunch of smoke blown trying to create the market for a trade-up, or preparing the fanbase for the pick to come, like the incessant repetition in 2013 of their interest in a right guard early before they took Chance Warmack in the draft?
Draft probability: 70%
Running Back
Need at position: Low to moderate-high
Analysis: Most outside observers would say the Titans are in desperate need of a running back. Jim Wyatt in his version of this article concurred, writing “[t]he Titans desperately need another running back.” The Titans are still the team that took Bishop Sankey in the second round and paid Shonn Greene and gave him a committee role with Sankey last year. They probably will draft a back, but I bet it happens on the third day.
Draft probability: 60%
Wide Receiver
Need at position: High
Analysis: Adding Hakeem Nicks just meant I’m only giving a probability for them drafting one receiver, not giving a separate probability for them drafting a second receiver. I expect this player to be at least 6′ tall and weigh at least 200 pounds and to be drafted in the first, second, or third round.
Draft probability: 99%
Tight End
Need at position: Low
Analysis: As I keep writing, I hate old tight ends, while the Titans are collecting them like they’re going out of style (Anthony Fasano, Craig Stevens, and Delanie Walker will all be 31 when the season begins). Based on what they think of Stevens and Taylor Thompson, they could look to add one late if one of the few half-decent ones falls.
Draft probability: 10%
Offensive Tackle
Need at position: Moderate-high to high
Analysis: Between Byron Bell and Byron Stingily, they have enough to give cover so they don’t have to force a high pick on a right tackle who has to be ready to step into the starting lineup in 2015. Ruston Webster at the pre-draft press conference indicated the obvious, that the Titans would be looking to add one and hope he can turn into a long-term starter. A possibility at #33 if the right player is there, but more likely in the third to fifth rounds.
Draft probability: 90%
Offensive Guard/Center
Need at position: High
Analysis: The Titans will definitely be adding a contributor-level interior offensive lineman between now and the start of training camp. The big question I have is, does it make sense to do this in the draft or should they instead add a Chris Spencer-like veteran? My strong preference given the youth at center and right guard would be for the veteran, or else this draft probability would be up at the same point tackle is.
Draft probability: 60%
Defensive Line
Need at position: Low to moderate
Analysis: The Titans return every defensive lineman who played a snap in 2014, but the group lacks impact players and they could decide they want a different variety of lineman. Leonard Williams is a possibility at #2, as is a nose tackle in Day 2 if they decide to shuffle the line a bit. I don’t think it makes sense to add a player on Day 3 to the mix.
Draft probability: 60%
Outside Linebacker
Need at position: Moderate-high to high
Analysis: Per Wyatt in his article, “[t]he Titans are taking an edge rusher in the draft — you can take that to the bank.” He’s definitely more plugged in than I am as I sit in the desk in my spare bedroom 500 miles away from St. Thomas Sports Park and write about what I think makes sense and what I think the Titans think makes sense, but I’m not sure it’s a pick the Titans will force if there’s a run on edge rushers late in the first round. There’s good depth early among the edge rushers, I’d say, but I probably won’t be a fan of anybody who’s still left when #66 rolls around. #33 would be my favorite place to address it, so the Titans will probably take one in the fifth round.
Draft probability: 90%
Inside Linebacker
Need at position: Low
Analysis: I covered the state of the position recently in my positional analysis, so I won’t rehash that here. Taking an inside ‘backer would be a luxury pick in my view, though I wouldn’t rule it out on the third day.
Draft probability: 20%
Cornerback
Need at position: Low to moderate-low
Analysis: Another positional analysis I just did and will not rehash. Between Perrish Cox, Jason McCourty, Coty Sensabaugh, and Blidi Wreh-Wilson, the Titans have more confidence in their ability to field a quality group than they did last season, and I strongly doubt they address the position before the fourth round given their other needs. Like many teams, they draft a cornerback pretty much every year, so I’d expect to see one on day three at some point.
Draft probability: 71%
Safety
Need at position: Low
Analysis: Yet another recent positional analysis I will not rehash. The Titans have two starters they seem to like plus some semi-credible backups, plus it’s a weak safety class. On the other hand, that’s a good argument to use a sixth-round pick on a safety who if they made it to undrafted free agency would go to a team with a much more attractive depth chart and a history of actually keeping an undrafted free agent more than once every couple seasons.
Draft probability: 20%
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